Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[humbaba]

TeslaOpinion‏ @TeslaOpinion
Tesla’s FREE CASH FLOW is now ~$1 billion PER quarter. Free cash flow is arguably THE most important measure of PROFITABILITY. Cash from operations minus operating & capital expenses. If $4 billion / year and growing isn’t enough to avoid bankruptcy $tslaq - how much is?

4:35 AM - 7 Feb 2019

I think the real question is, since $4.66B losses in shorting $TSLA wasn't enough to cause bankwuptcy, how much is?

 

[sparcs]

Chicago Tribune - 13 minutes ago: Ford to invest $1 billion in Chicago auto plants, add 500 jobs

Now we need to bring Tesla factories to Chicagoland.

Tesla just needs to buy Rivian

 

[avoigt]

I guess the shorts aren't done until they've lost $TSLA's market cap? (Although given today's market action the less savvy among them may be salivating...)

In 3 years $4.66 bn losses for the shorts. Hard to believe that anybody has hopes to get that money back considering where Tesla is today.

Alex‏ @alex_avoigt
Replying to @ihors3
Thanks Ihor. Can you include in your report the total to date profits or losses?


Ihor Dusaniwsky‏ @ihors3
Ihor Dusaniwsky Retweeted Alex

We've only been calcing mark-to-market P\L since 2016 .... 2016-2019 mark-to-market P\L for $TSLA is a $4.66 billion loss which includes $822 million in stock borrow financing costs (an average fee of 3.62% fee for the 3+ years.)

Alex on Twitter

 

[gora321]

ValueAnalyst‏ @ValueAnalyst1
"Fiat Chrysler shares fell 10 percent on Thursday after weaker-than-expected guidance for profits and industrial free cash flow this year raised doubts about the Italian-American carmaker’s longer-term targets." $TSLA

5:09 AM - 7 Feb 2019

 

[schonelucht]

First Model 3 deliveries in the Netherlands happened just a short half hour ago. Twitter

 

[Matias]

It's Internet slang for strong approval of the quoted/replied-to comment:

Urban Dictionary: This​

This.

 

[gora321]

ValueAnalyst‏ @ValueAnalyst1
A reminder that fossil fuel subsidies are estimated to be more than $5 TRILLION PER YEAR. https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0305750X16304867 … #RenewableEnergy #OOTT #Tesla

4:49 AM - 7 Feb 2019

 

[avoigt]

Fred Christenhusz‏ @FredChristenhus
We got it!!! The first Tesla Model 3 from Europe!!! @elonmusk Tesla team, thanks you did a great job!! So proud that we got the first Tesla 3 from Europe

Fred Christenhusz on Twitter

 

[humbaba]

In 3 years $4.66 bn losses for the shorts. Hard to believe that anybody has hopes to get that money back considering where Tesla is today.

Alex‏ @alex_avoigt
Replying to @ihors3
Thanks Ihor. Can you include in your report the total to date profits or losses?


Ihor Dusaniwsky‏ @ihors3
Ihor Dusaniwsky Retweeted Alex

We've only been calcing mark-to-market P\L since 2016 .... 2016-2019 mark-to-market P\L for $TSLA is a $4.66 billion loss which includes $822 million in stock borrow financing costs (an average fee of 3.62% fee for the 3+ years.)

Alex on Twitter

I do love the little dears for trying, though. They lose enough money I'll give in and yield what little diversification I have left to go all in on $TSLA. In the meantime, I'm hoping I can scrape enough dry powder together before they come to their collective senses. Unfortunately the barrel is pretty empty after getting my l3mur. Or not unfortunately: after all, I've got my l3mur!

 

[EVNow]

4% down - on basically no news ? Nasdaq down only 1.7%.

 

[gora321]

Fred Christenhusz on Twitter

 

[humbaba]

4% down - on basically no news ? Nasdaq down only 1.7%.

I dunno, you make it seem so reasonable that the slide is a general fall in the market, but Business Insider has the scoop: "Tesla slides after report says Amazon has invested in a self-driving startup." I guess $TSLA's market cap really was including the autonomous vehicle valuation and had nothing going for it. Especially considering Waymo is supposed to be valued at $175B entirely on autonomy. Bankwuptcy. $TSLAQ

/s

What, Business Insider doesn't count?

In all seriousness, I expect that it is the expectation of the trade war resuming. I don't the market as a whole to be aware of Tesla's situation beyond expectations of selling more vehicles in China (US sales in Q1 are expected to be down), and absent an understanding that Tesla is working around that with a GF in Shanghai I can understand a perception that Tesla is in trouble.

 

[MTL_HABS1909]

Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Releases Green New Deal Outline

Call. Elon. Musk.

Now.

Not gonna happen.

Ocasio-Cortez v Tesla: Taxpayers have yet to see ‘return on their investment’

 

[Matias]

Shorts are screaming on twitter that Model3-s are delivered without AP in EU, it will be activated later. Guys from Belgium and Netherlands can you comment is it really so?

This would be great, as it would mean, that those cars have AP3...

 

[KarenRei]

4% down - on basically no news ? Nasdaq down only 1.7%.

Tesla is more sensitive to China news than the broader market.

That said, they're also sensitive to Europe. Which raises a question: I understand that there's supposed to be a ruling next week about the EU auto tariff. Does anyone have any more information about this? Loss of the 10% EU tariff should totally quell any market demand concerns, regardless of what happens in China. But an increase in the tariff would be taken as a disastrous sign by the market.

 

[Remus]

Personally as a non EV lover (thiuhf I own stock and like the concept of Tesla.) I find it hard to justify purchase of a Tesla when I can get a brand new full size 4x4 truck for less which can tow 10,000 lbs. Or a completely tricked out larger sedan like a Nissan Maxima. A compelling electric drivetrain versus a nice V6 that I can fill up in 3 minutes makes a difference. Plus, I would prefer something larger than m3. I like m3 but to compete effectively it needs to be $35k or even more like $30k for such a small car. This is just my opinion as a non die hard.

So Tesla has work todo. We as EV owners have work to do. Lots of it. Educating the consumer is no small feat. It's perfectly understandable for people to be skeptical towards new things especially when it comes to such expensive things.

But time is on Tesla's side. Overtime people will realize the long term ownership cost is lower. Used model 3 price together with lots of low maintenance high mileage model 3 on the road will change people's minds.

Overtime that shiny Nissan Maxima may have CVT problems. The lucky ones with robust transmission still need to replace their alternator, water pump, crankshaft position sensor, fix timing chain rattling... chances are it also leaks unknown oily stuff on you garage floor. When your Maxima is in the shop again while your neighbors EV is cruising pass, the last thing you would care is the refueling time. These things will make used model 3 more expensive, which will have positive effect on the new car market.

 

[KarenRei]

Not gonna happen.

Ocasio-Cortez v Tesla: Taxpayers have yet to see ‘return on their investment’

She doesn't have to like any automaker in particular. So long as the bill supports EVs in general.

 

[SO16]

Not gonna happen.

Ocasio-Cortez v Tesla: Taxpayers have yet to see ‘return on their investment’

I guess jobs and cleaner air doesn’t count.

 

[humbaba]

I dunno, you make it seem so reasonable that the slide is a general fall in the market, but Business Insider has the scoop: "Tesla slides after report says Amazon has invested in a self-driving startup." I guess $TSLA's market cap really was including the autonomous vehicle valuation and had nothing going for it. Especially considering Waymo is supposed to be valued at $175B entirely on autonomy. Bankwuptcy. $TSLAQ

/s

wow! Disagrees with sarcasm! I even included the /s tag. I love it here

 

[Mark's Beagle]

They are not production limited at current prices in the US. They can't keep selling 25,000 of $50k cars every month, duh. Remember the plan was to sell a $35k car, not $50k. That is where the huge demand is. Demand exponentially goes up as price comes down.

Instead of directly starting to sell $35k car, they are slowly reducing the price pulling in demand from lower priced buyers. I bet almost all of us 3 owners who wanted the $35k car would have paid more than we wanted to end the end (I wanted to buy the base $35k car - but finally bought the $50k LR).

Yes I agree with you.

I love the car, nothing else compares to it. But everything and everyone has a price.

Instead some superbulls are coming up with all sorts of explanations for Tesla's car economics - like "normal economics don't apply!" and "production-limited" to rationalize these adjustments.

In reality it's pretty simply. The $7500 tax credit got cut in half. Whatever demand there was for the current models is going to reduce some % because of that. In response, Tesla cut their prices in order to control demand. And they can because margin's are improving.

Occam's Razor.