Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[KarenRei]

They claim it is from JL Warren Capital, but amazingly there is no clear source/link.

So ignoring that this is an unreferenced claim - let's just pretend that they actually said that. A quick search of "JL Warren Capital" and "Tesla" shows that for the past half decade they've either been getting their Tesla estimates way too low or way too high:

"JL Warren Capital" "tesla" - Google Search

What makes you think that they're accurate now? And more to the point, what makes you so confident of their accuracy so as to assume that Tesla is dispatching ship after ship to China of cars that mysteriously nobody seems to want, in a country of 1,4 billion people where 8% of all new car sales are electric? Or rather, perhaps they're not dispatching ships full of cars - maybe they're empty, and Tesla is paying to send empty ships across the Pacific as part of a potemkin village! Hmm, but then the Shorty Air Force filming as they load cars at Pier 80 must be part of the conspiracy. Oh, I know, they're stopping partway and dumping them all on the bottom of the ocean, right?

Seriously, what's your actual theory? Don't play coy - tell us.

Also, please let us know who it is that's been booking the test drive waiting lists full days in advance in China and who's been staging all of the paid actors at the Tesla stores.

 

[Mark's Beagle]

I have absolutely no no confidence in that claim, just passed it along to see if anyone could shoot it down. Seems if there are multiple ships en route to China, that would be pretty good refutation.

 

[Mark's Beagle]

Nikola is producing an all electric Semi. This probably means the end of the Tesla Semi:

https://electrek.co/2019/02/08/nikola-motors-electric-trucks-tesla-semi/


I'm joking, lighten up

 

[Rammstein]

Related:

Reservation lines for Tesla Model 3 aren't translating into sales

How is this possible when they just started delivering the cars in Europe and China? I don't believe her sources.

 

[pz1975]

Nikola is producing an all electric Semi. This probably means the end of the Tesla Semi:

https://electrek.co/2019/02/08/nikola-motors-electric-trucks-tesla-semi/


I'm joking, lighten up

Oops - didnt see small print!

 

[riverFox]

Based on Elon's last 2 tweets I'd say he's in a good mood.

 

[M3Rider]

Btw, wanted to share a communication story from Tesla.

I have a few minor paint defects and had Tesla take pictures of them after the delivery. They said they'd call me to fix after 1-2 months since body shops they worked with were booked.
I asked again if they'd call or I need to call - just to make sure I got that right. They confirmed they'd call.

So, it's been 5 months. I didn't try to push the matter as I was not sure if I wanted to take the risk of having entire body parts repainted b/c of something really minor - there are some unsuccessful stories on this forum.

So, 3 days ago I got a call out of the blue that they are ready to fix that paint for me. I asked what led to the call - whether it took them this long to work through the queue or they had some communication process improvements and they said the latter. So, this was quite unexpected, cause I was sure that my issue was safely buried.
They found some way to dig them up

 

[EVNow]

You need not go back that far. Less than a year ago, IIRC, there was talkabout a EU plan to hit tariffs on Tennessee whiskey, Michigan motorcycles and jeans, soy beans and corn from wherever that is mined ...

When they wanted to start the metrification of US - the test dual mile/km speed post was installed in the constituency of the ardent opponent of metrification.

 

[M3Rider]

Based on Elon's last 2 tweets I'd say he's in a good mood.

Btw, re: Mars (from his tweet)
I assume everybody watched the show on Netflix with the same name?
They've got quite a few short interviews there with Elon.

 

[kbM3]

Am I the only one freaking out about the fact that Tesla has had to lower the price twice since the start of the year? I really thought, at least in Q1, that Tesla would be able to sell out 6000 to 7000 per week at $46,000 and up in the face of the large European and Chinese backlogs.

 

[oneday]

Btw, wanted to share a communication story from Tesla.

I have a few minor paint defects and had Tesla take pictures of them after the delivery. They said they'd call me to fix after 1-2 months since body shops they worked with were booked.
I asked again if they'd call or I need to call - just to make sure I got that right. They confirmed they'd call.

So, it's been 5 months. I didn't try to push the matter as I was not sure if I wanted to take the risk of having entire body parts repainted b/c of something really minor - there are some unsuccessful stories on this forum.

So, 3 days ago I got a call out of the blue that they are ready to fix that paint for me. I asked what led to the call - whether it took them this long to work through the queue or they had some communication process improvements and they said the latter. So, this was quite unexpected, cause I was sure that my issue was safely buried.
They found some way to dig them up

Curious, is your car being fixed by Tesla, or an approved shop?

 

[oneday]

Am I the only one freaking out about the fact that Tesla has had to lower the price twice since the start of the year? I really thought, at least in Q1, that Tesla would be able to sell out 6000 to 7000 per week at $46,000 and up in the face of the large European and Chinese backlogs.

Why are you trying to read tea leaves to gauge demand. Tesla has guided to how many deliveries they will make in 2019 with a greater than 20% margin, what more do you want?

 

[M3Rider]

Curious, is your car being fixed by Tesla, or an approved shop?

I'm not yet sure I'll go ahead with the appointment. They don't fix paint themselves. They work with "approved" body shops.
You drop off the car at Tesla, they give you a loaner and take care of moving it to/from body shop.

 

[oneday]

I'm not yet sure I'll go ahead with the appointment. They don't fix paint themselves. They work with "approved" body shops.
You drop off the car at Tesla, they give you a loaner and take care of moving it to/from body shop.

They do at the new Tesla body shops. Just curious if they had one in CO yet.

Edit: Looked it up myself, these are the only cities that Tesla has rolled out their new body shops via their website:
Tesla Body Repair Centers are available for collision repair in the following cities.

• San Jose, California
• Pomona, California

Tesla Body Repair Centers are available for light collision repair in the following cities.

• Bellevue, Washington
• Dallas, Texas
• Eatonville, Florida
• Houston, Texas
• Las Vegas, Nevada
• Marietta, Georgia
• Owings Mills, Maryland
• Van Nuys, California
• Villa Park, Illinois

 

[Sudre]

Could someone please manage to repeat Tesla’s mission statement?

For some reason no matter how many times it is repeated here people keep think it is, “Tesla’s goal is to rape their customers for as much profit as they can manage.” While others (fred) seem to think that is the mission statement used on him, most of us investors realize Tesla is going to pass on saving to the customers and lower the price whenever they can until said price is at $35,000ish and still pulling in profits. Why? To drive home the transition to BEVs and a sustainable future.

 

[dddaaa0]

Funny how comment section is full of BEV enthusiasts.

Will The Internal Combustion Engine Survive? - Autoline After Hours

 

[kbM3]

Why are you trying to read tea leaves to gauge demand. Tesla has guided to how many deliveries they will make in 2019 with a greater than 20% margin, what more do you want?

I’m not worried about the longer run. I’m worried about the short run. Specifically how much negative pressure this will put on gross margin in q1. I’m only in shares not options, but it is still stressful.

Edit: What do you mean by reading tea leaves? Obviously Tesla is demand constrained at the higher prices. If they weren’t we would be seeing much longer waitlists after the price drops.

 

[EVNow]

Am I the only one freaking out about the fact that Tesla has had to lower the price twice since the start of the year? I really thought, at least in Q1, that Tesla would be able to sell out 6000 to 7000 per week at $46,000 and up in the face of the large European and Chinese backlogs.

Yes - even the shorts didn't try to push the SP down much after the news came out. I hope you can survive when the base SR comes out. Tesla had worldwide reservation of 400k for ca car starting $35k. Some 300k was from US/Canada. They have managed to sell 150k cars without coming close to that $35k.

Basically you can't sell only in China/EU. You have to keep selling in US as well.

 

[EVNow]

I’m only in shares not options, but it is still stressful.

Why would you care about one quarter ? If you are just in shares, just take a look at the stock price once a year or so. I didn't do even that many years.

Afterall - with all that has happened with Tesla over the last 18 months, the stock price hasn't moved much.

 

[Mark's Beagle]

Am I the only one freaking out about the fact that Tesla has had to lower the price twice since the start of the year? I really thought, at least in Q1, that Tesla would be able to sell out 6000 to 7000 per week at $46,000 and up in the face of the large European and Chinese backlogs.

No it's very concerning and discussion here has not been very reassuring, too irrational.