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2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

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GoTslaGo

Learning Member
Dec 25, 2015
3,063
4,712
US
Please continue posting your orders, I will set mine a couple of bucks higher :D

I should listen to your advice. It happens more often than I care to admit. Several times I had to change the order to market to get some shares. Often I just wind up letting the order go unfilled and let it sit. Was busy today, so didn’t get a chance to try to grab some more today.
 

bdy0627

Active Member
May 19, 2015
3,505
12,087
Appleton, WI
Think I missed the bottom again. Set a buy limit for 308.xx... didn’t hit. Oh well.
I bought a few more calls pretty early today and then set up a buy limit order below those that didn't fill. That doesn't disappoint me in the least though. I consider it a win either way. I'm absolutely loaded now with TSLA. It's such an obvious investment to me at this level going into this year that it almost seems too obvious. I don't understand how much of the market doesn't see it that way, but I believe it's just a matter of time until they do.
 

srius

Member
Dec 12, 2017
69
118
USA
I disagree. If Tesla announces production numbers of 500-800 I believe that the SP will dip. OTOH if they announce numbers of 2-3 k which is inline with the “several thousand” that Elon said was a likely outcome the SP will definitely increase substantially.
What do you think the SP will perform/be with the production numbers of 1200-1500? It is realistic to tag the Dec deliveries at 700. But Tesla is pushing hard to move up the numbers, so it's possible to reach 1000 or slightly above.
 

AlMc

'When the music is on...you gotta dance' (Go Elon)
Apr 23, 2013
7,348
15,507
Delaware
So to expand on this, previously Tesla had registered thru VIN 4794. Since they registered more they must clearly be close to exhausting these VINs, which is why I come to the conclusion that they're close to producing beyond 5000 VINs.

I really hope you are correct at production number of 5K in 2017. I would put the figure closer to half of that.

I agree the 'green' today was a combo of the new VIN allotment and the Electric article with the drone footage of Fremont.

I do expect 2018 to be a very good year for Tesla and those of us that invest in it.

I have no idea how the market will react to the release of the production numbers next week. I hope @Curt Renz is correct at sell the rumor, buy the news.

Holding a good amount of TSLA, short, medium and long term options with stock BUT am also holding a significant amount of cash as I have always been comfortable missing the bottom to wait for confirmation of an upward trend.

Great to see green today. Good luck to all longs.
 

Mkorpal

Member
Mar 17, 2016
961
2,991
Denver
What do you think the SP will perform/be with the production numbers of 1200-1500? It is realistic to tag the Dec deliveries at 700. But Tesla is pushing hard to move up the numbers, so it's possible to reach 1000 or slightly above.

I think the market still expects 500. So, I expect a 1500 would also see a sizeable jump.
 
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gene

Supporting Member
Feb 11, 2013
2,250
11,950
Santa Barbara, CA
In December 2012, I bought a fair amount of TSLA. In March 2013, I received my Model S. Holy sh#t!!! What a car!! I immediately bought a lot more TSLA. Today, Friday, I will be picking up my Model 3 at Marina Del Rey. If it as awesome as I suspect, I'll be buying some more TSLA on my drive home. Damn, I miss those days of buying TSLA under $30 a share!
 

CatB

Member
Mar 2, 2013
887
695
Alexandria, VA
In December 2012, I bought a fair amount of TSLA. In March 2013, I received my Model S. Holy sh#t!!! What a car!! I immediately bought a lot more TSLA. Today, Friday, I will be picking up my Model 3 at Marina Del Rey. If it as awesome as I suspect, I'll be buying some more TSLA on my drive home. Damn, I miss those days of buying TSLA under $30 a share!

Same pattern here, but I am a bit behind. Ordered in 12/12, delivered in 3/13. Decided to "buy a lottery ticket" with some cash sitting in an IRA when stock was around $40. Discovered TMC and have (with the benefit all of your 'not an advice' and conversations at TMC-Connect) been accumulating stock as I can. Now mostly watching here to see when I can buy on dips and donate to charity on peaks. And also hoping to sell as few shares as I have to so I can pay for my Model 3.
Congrats on your new addition!
 

uselesslogin

Supporting Member
Jun 13, 2013
1,830
3,776
Omaha, NE
I'm jealous of people who were able to test drive or get their Model S and make their investment decision after driving it in early 2013. I think I would have put a lot more money in if I had that opportunity. Still, I can't complain.
 
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AlMc

'When the music is on...you gotta dance' (Go Elon)
Apr 23, 2013
7,348
15,507
Delaware
@gene We expect a review......and congratulations both on your '3' and your TSLA purchases. We may need you to purchase more today as the bears may be out the last day of the week/year for trading.
 
Jan 19, 2013
982
11,989
Canada
A brand new year deserves a new avatar.
O'K, so I've got the plate.....now all I need is my M3 (late 2018 according to Tesla).

Superchargers are ramping up, seeing a lot more of them, these in Huntsville, 2.5hrs. North of Toronto, ON, Canada, in prime cottage country. At 130 miles each way, the long range M3 can go without these, but good to know they are there.

Tesla Supercharges Huntsville.png
Tesla Supercharges Huntsville 2.png


The following photo is at a resort outside Whitney, ON taken last summer (2.5 hrs N/W of Toronto in cottage country).
Tesla Charger Whitney.jpg


Daniel
 
Jan 19, 2013
982
11,989
Canada
I'm not at all surprised by the trading range, maintaining the low $300 range until ramp up of M3 is confirmed.
Hoping $300 is the floor, however anticipate another small drop after F'17 Q1 numbers are released, as delivery numbers will disappoint (hopeful for >1500). This should be the last chance to get in at these prices.
I maintain my position fully invested in shares as I have enough knowledge to know I can't time the market. 2018 will be a great year for Tesla and hopefully a great year for TSLA as well. IMO, four out of five traders will lose money on TSLA in 2018, however those that maintain their (BULL) position throughout the full year are most likely (+95%) to see substantial gains. My guesstimate for deliveries is 55k MS, 55k MX and 200k M3 for 2018.

With all the negative feedback due to the recent drop in share price, take note that TSLA is up 46% this year which is incredible. Looking day to day at TSLA distorts the big picture. My hope is for TSLA again to gain another 46% for 2018 ending the year at $458 and hopefully will be driving my M3 by then. Patient investors will be rewarded. I know, I know, what am I doing here on the short term thread. Cheers!

Daniel
 
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Icer

Member
Dec 9, 2017
176
271
USA
Musk is in Chile.

A solid Lithium deal would beat GM and VW who are aggressively pursuing lithium sources General wisdom is depending on the market to provide is not a good plan.

Has to be why he is there. Timing is good, new Pres Sebastián Piñera
and Ponce signaling he would step aside to enable a fix of the CORFO/SQM mess.

Having our motivated buyer could put it together quickly.

Elon Musk llegó a Chile esta semana en un viaje incógnito
emol com

Elon Musk arrived in Chile this week on an incognito trip In a private plane the founder of several technological companies is located in the national territory, however, there are no details about the reasons for his visit.
 

Icer

Member
Dec 9, 2017
176
271
USA
A musk deal with SQM in Chile "should" (could, might maybe?)
enable T to get past the
Chinese requirement that batteries be China sourced to sell there?

SQM has allied with China's Ganfeng and LAC (previously Western Lithium)
That might pass?

LAC lithium brine project at Cauchari-Olaroz in Argentina, and interestingly, the Lithium Nevada Corp (formerly Kings Valley project) clay project in Nevada

Olay, getting way ahead of things now...
heh.
 
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Reciprocity

Active Member
Feb 27, 2017
4,160
10,905
Chicagoland
I think the market still expects 500. So, I expect a 1500 would also see a sizeable jump.

People are taking delivery of VIN 3000+. I get that they would be delivered out of order, but where the hell are they hiding the 2500 cars with sub 2500 vins at? And why in hell would they not deliver them when they can do 500ft away. My guess is that they will deliver 2500 this quarter and the other 1000 produced will be in transit, even if they are sitting in the Fremont parking lot. Tesla can't just sit in thousands of cars, there is no room for them. They have room for maybe 1000 cars but those cars are moving out and new ones are coming out of the factory.
 

hobbes

Active Member
Feb 11, 2013
2,638
13,360
Germany
Musk is in Chile.

A solid Lithium deal would beat GM and VW who are aggressively pursuing lithium sources General wisdom is depending on the market to provide is not a good plan.

Has to be why he is there. Timing is good, new Pres Sebastián Piñera
and Ponce signaling he would step aside to enable a fix of the CORFO/SQM mess.

Having our motivated buyer could put it together quickly.

Elon Musk llegó a Chile esta semana en un viaje incógnito
emol com

Elon Musk arrived in Chile this week on an incognito trip In a private plane the founder of several technological companies is located in the national territory, however, there are no details about the reasons for his visit.

Electrek also has an article on that: Tesla CEO Elon Musk arrives in Chile sparking lithium rumors again
 
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Waiting4M3

Active Member
Apr 13, 2016
3,328
12,066
San Jose, California
I am actually happy to see the SP dropping down and staying near $300 through the end of this week instead of going up in anticipation of Q4 delivery #s. This to me fits the "sell the rumor buy the news" model. If the delivery and production #s look decent I think we will have a good January, and the local high we visited in Dec a couple weeks ago will just be a hint of what the SP can do.
 
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BornToFly

Supporting Member
May 8, 2013
1,724
11,057
Elon's world
I picked up ten Jan 2020 calls with 250 SP today. A bad Q4 and slow Q1 is already priced in. Any good news on the ramp and the SP should climb. Just can't imagine it going below 300 next month even if the ramp is still struggling. The way I see it there is little down side risk, and lots of upside potential. Easy money. I've picked up a lot of calls in the last 6 months with these dips. A big thank you to the shorts that have kept the SP down long enough for me to slowly keep adding. Looking forward to big profits in 2018! Woot!
 

dc_h

Active Member
Feb 14, 2015
3,484
13,016
Naperville, IL
A musk deal with SQM in Chile "should" (could, might maybe?)
enable T to get past the
Chinese requirement that batteries be China sourced to sell there?

SQM has allied with China's Ganfeng and LAC (previously Western Lithium)
That might pass?

LAC lithium brine project at Cauchari-Olaroz in Argentina, and interestingly, the Lithium Nevada Corp (formerly Kings Valley project) clay project in Nevada

Olay, getting way ahead of things now...
heh.
That Pacific Trade Agreement works from Chile to China, correct? Not so much from US to China. Good call, this might be source material for the China Gigafactory.
 
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