Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[mickificki]

Los Angeles ditches plan to invest billions in fossil fuels, Mayor Eric Garcetti says

LA is not repowering any of it’s natural gas power plants, and moving to renewables instead. Portends well for Tesla battery storage sales imo.

 

[EVNow]

Or at least rumor reported by CNBC or something, Cleantechnica is considered spam by bots

Well, Tesla is now underperforming Nasdaq by 0.3%. So, either nobody heard of this rumor or they earlier thought this was news and are now discounting it as rumor and selling. Last 30 minutes Tesla has gone down 1%, while Nasdaq is mostly flat/

 

[doctoxics]

Because they are no longer making the smaller battery packs, and to the best of our knowledge the supply of cells haven't increased. So they can't make as many.

I can't see S and X sales falling significantly below 100K per anum. Tesla is still expanding into new markets. S and X are the best cars (ever) in their classes. I expect demand will slowly increase above 100K per anum. Tesla will find a way to secure cells and whatever else is needed to meet demand.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Days like today are so frustrating. Good chance of Tesla turning negative today based on its morning trend while on a macro positive day. Its these kinds of days that reaffirms to me that we are definitely still stuck in the past two year trading range and not close to breaking out. The stock couldn't even hold its initial gains yesterday on the upgrade.

 

[Tenable]

Well, Tesla is now underperforming Nasdaq by 0.3%. So, either nobody heard of this rumor or they earlier thought this was news and are now discounting it as rumor and selling. Last 30 minutes Tesla has gone down 1%, while Nasdaq is mostly flat/

As long as TSLA can stay above 315 I'm happy short term. If we can get above 325 and hold we may find a reason to pop champagne as technical traders jump on board.

 

[Fact Checking]

BTW., Fred Lambert of Electrek is publicly calling @ZachShahan's GM rumor article "100% not true":

Scoop: GM Working On Electric Pickup Truck With Tesla Powertrain | CleanTechnica : teslamotors

FredTesla

"It's 100% not true. It looks like they didn't even seek comment from GM or Tesla. If I'd think that there's even 1% of this being true, I'd debunk this real quick, but it's not even worth it."

FredTesla

'Who prints major news like that based a single anonymous source without seeking a comment from either company involved? Either someone who doesn’t know what they are doing or someone who knows it would get shut down by the companies but wants the clicks anyway. Either cases, it points to bullshit."​

Note that "FredTesla" is Fred Lambert, who is also a moderator of /r/teslamotors.

(Regardless of whether the rumor is true, Mr. "Fred $5,000 Refund" being upset about journalistic standards is nevertheless a hilarious double standard.)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, Tesla is now underperforming Nasdaq by 0.3%. So, either nobody heard of this rumor or they earlier thought this was news and are now discounting it as rumor and selling. Last 30 minutes Tesla has gone down 1%, while Nasdaq is mostly flat/

TSLA is oscillating around its 200-day Moving Average which is currently 316.08
This is pure technicals. It will take some news to break out.

 

[Todd Burch]

The GM story isn't news yet, it needs an annoucment from GM and/or Tesla.

Sarcasm? I'm sure you've been here long enough to know that nothing needs to be verified as fact to move the share price.

Or maybe negative news moves it whether it's verified or FUD, and positive news only moves it if verified...

 

[mickificki]

TSLA is oscillating around its 200-day Moving Average which is currently 316.08
This is pure technicals. It will take some news to break out.

View attachment 376596

At 9am LA mayor Garcetti will be holding a press conference about transitioning to renewables. Not sure this will give the needed jolt to tsla but the implication is obvious imo.

 

[KarenRei]

At 9am LA mayor Garcetti will be holding a press conference about transitioning to renewables. Not sure this will give the needed jolt to tsla but the implication is obvious imo.

Just reading about the announcement here:

That plan faced pushback from environmental activists and also from one of Garcetti’s appointees to DWP’s board of commissioners, Aura Vasquez. At a board meeting last month, Vasquez pressed utility staff to look beyond gas plants and embrace batteries and other new technologies as a means of providing reliable power.

“We are in uncharted territories. I get it. We are in a new era. We are headed to renewables that some might view as unreliable,” Vasquez said. “I’m trying to figure out how to reinvent the way that we do business.”

Garcetti said his office concluded that Los Angeles wouldn’t have trouble keeping the lights on if Scattergood is retired by 2024 and Haynes and Harbor by 2029, as long as DWP keeps investing in batteries and other clean energy technologies. He said he asked DWP’s top managers to “shift their thinking.”

Yeah, but where could they possibly find someone to sell them grid-scale batteries?

 

[Reciprocity]

As a 25,000 share owner of MXWL, I think there is a very definite chance of a competing bid. $219M is insanely low for this technology and the fact that the amount of shares a MXWL holder receives (when the deal is done in Q2), declines if TSLA shares go up in this timeframe. Not a good deal for MXWL holders as it stands. It would not be hard for a competing offer to look a lot more attractive.

I agree its very low bid to pay for the potential of the solution. I would disagree that there will be a competitive bid. A couple of reasons, one is that traditional OEMs could give to craps about battery tech. They assume some auto parts manufacturer will supply them with batteries, they have zero doubts about this and just do not care bout battery tech. Second is that this has definitely been shopped to more then Tesla. If you are Maxwell, do you want to be acquired by a fast growing company or a slow growing company like LG or Samsung? Those are giant successful companies but they are going to deliver 20x over the next decade. Tesla did pay a 50% premium and it appears that Maxwell has accepted and this is not a hostile takeover. There is also a good chance that Tesla has determined how to make it work in their process and others have not. Its a billion dollar a year solution so its worth more then $218M. The only reason you get it that cheap is if it needs a lot of work still. Its one thing to validate it in lab and build some demo cells, even rapid testing that Jeff Dahn can do on chemistry to validate. Its another thing to manufacture a billion cells with the new tech. Very few companies are down with that kind of risk, where Tesla is prone to seek out risk and embrace it with open arms. There is also a good chance that Tesla is uniquely positioned to evaluate the tech with Panasonic and Jeff Dahn as well Tesla themselves with as much experience as anyone in battery tech for large scale storage and automotive. This also goes to risk, battery cells for a camcorder is much different then cells for a car and very few companies have the kind of experience Tesla/Pana/Dahn have at this point. Same goes with Utility grade storage using batteries.

I hope that owners for Maxwell are happy to be owners of Tesla, you are getting in on the cheap for sure. I get that the stock was $40 and now $4, but you have a chance to be $80 from here so I hope you dollar cost averaged.

 

[mickificki]

Just reading about the announcement here:

That plan faced pushback from environmental activists and also from one of Garcetti’s appointees to DWP’s board of commissioners, Aura Vasquez. At a board meeting last month, Vasquez pressed utility staff to look beyond gas plants and embrace batteries and other new technologies as a means of providing reliable power.

“We are in uncharted territories. I get it. We are in a new era. We are headed to renewables that some might view as unreliable,” Vasquez said. “I’m trying to figure out how to reinvent the way that we do business.”

Garcetti said his office concluded that Los Angeles wouldn’t have trouble keeping the lights on if Scattergood is retired by 2024 and Haynes and Harbor by 2029, as long as DWP keeps investing in batteries and other clean energy technologies. He said he asked DWP’s top managers to “shift their thinking.”

Yeah, but where could they possibly find someone to sell them grid-scale batteries?

Garcetti and Elon have a pretty good relationship, sounds promising.

https://motherboard.vice.com/en_us/...-elon-musk-for-a-driverless-car-program-tesla

 

[mongo]

BTW., Fred Lambert of Electrek is publicly calling @ZachShahan's GM rumor article "100% not true":

Scoop: GM Working On Electric Pickup Truck With Tesla Powertrain | CleanTechnica : teslamotors

FredTesla

"It's 100% not true. It looks like they didn't even seek comment from GM or Tesla. If I'd think that there's even 1% of this being true, I'd debunk this real quick, but it's not even worth it."

FredTesla

'Who prints major news like that based a single anonymous source without seeking a comment from either company involved? Either someone who doesn’t know what they are doing or someone who knows it would get shut down by the companies but wants the clicks anyway. Either cases, it points to bullshit."​

Note that "FredTesla" is Fred Lambert, who is also a moderator of /r/teslamotors.

(Regardless of whether the rumor is true, Mr. "Fred $5,000 Refund" being upset about journalistic standards is nevertheless a hilarious double standard.)

Did Fred get any comment or feedback from GM or Tesla before declaring it bogus? Doesn't look like it. So one source is unreliable, but zero sources are golden?
Tesla seems to debunk things quickly... Someone Tweet Elon...

 

[ZachShahan]

BTW., Fred Lambert of Electrek is publicly calling @ZachShahan's GM rumor article "100% not true":

Scoop: GM Working On Electric Pickup Truck With Tesla Powertrain | CleanTechnica : teslamotors

FredTesla

"It's 100% not true. It looks like they didn't even seek comment from GM or Tesla. If I'd think that there's even 1% of this being true, I'd debunk this real quick, but it's not even worth it."

FredTesla

'Who prints major news like that based a single anonymous source without seeking a comment from either company involved? Either someone who doesn’t know what they are doing or someone who knows it would get shut down by the companies but wants the clicks anyway. Either cases, it points to bullshit."​

Note that "FredTesla" is Fred Lambert, who is also a moderator of /r/teslamotors.

(Regardless of whether the rumor is true, Mr. "Fred $5,000 Refund" being upset about journalistic standards is nevertheless a hilarious double standard.)

Source isn't anonymous. Doesn't want to be named publicly.

 

[TradingInvest]

I can't see S and X sales falling significantly below 100K per anum. Tesla is still expanding into new markets. S and X are the best cars (ever) in their classes. I expect demand will slowly increase above 100K per anum. Tesla will find a way to secure cells and whatever else is needed to meet demand.

Since the low tier S and X are removed, the annual demand probably will drop to 60~80k (Model 3 is a strong competitor). After they update with advanced FSD HW/SW, the global demand for S and X might stabilize at 150k.

 

[ZachShahan]

Did Fred get any comment or feedback from GM or Tesla before declaring it bogus? Doesn't look like it. So one source is unreliable, but zero sources are golden?
Tesla seems to debunk things quickly... Someone Tweet Elon...

Elon was on Twitter right around the moment it went live. Never truly know if he sees something unless he gives it a RT or <3, but take that FWIW.

Naturally, this is not the kind of news GM or Tesla are going to talk about if it is important to GM to not have it highlighted, which is what I was told.

 

[lascavarian]

Note that "FredTesla" is Fred Lambert, who is also a moderator of /r/teslamotors.

Interesting, that exchange was 8 or 9 hours ago. Seems to be a bit quiet since. I would expect that with the MXWL deal happening, Tesla would not want a lot of volatility in the stock price until the ribbons are tied on it or there could be accusations. Silence may mean something but hard to really know.

 

[Curt Renz]

Today at 1:30 pm EST, ARK Invest will conduct its monthly webinar: https://register.gotowebinar.com/register/7119127061193927937

Tesla is the #1 overall holding among the ARK ETFs. It is usually discussed either in the main webinar presentations, or in the Q&A portion during which you can submit a question.

Brief video of ARK CEO yesterday responding to questions about portfolio balancing policy especially regarding TSLA: ARK Invest on Twitter

 

[ZachShahan]

Sarcasm? I'm sure you've been here long enough to know that nothing needs to be verified as fact to move the share price.

Or maybe negative news moves it whether it's verified or FUD, and positive news only moves it if verified...

Ha, that's been my understanding of how it works.

 

[Hock1]

I'm curious about this reasoning, which I've seen in other deals too. Tesla stock is a liquid asset, so why would anyone care vs cash? Are there tax implications for the holders of Maxwell stock if they were to liquidate their Tesla shares right after the deal closed?

If you own the shares of the acquired company and you tender your shares for shares in the acquiring company, there is no taxable event. Your cost basis in the acquired company becomes your cost basis in the acquiring company. If you receive cash for your shares in an acquisition, that is a taxable event. In a share exchange, a taxable event occurs when you sell the shares that you received in the acquisition.
I am not an accountant. The above is based on my own personal experience.