Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Tenable]

For anyone interested, the ARK investment presentation starts in about 2 hours.

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[Unpilot]

View attachment 376529 From Jack Richard on HyperchangeTVs follow up video on Maxwell acquisition.

Man I love the way Jack thinks!

 

[AlMc]

I’m skeptical that a GM/Tesla collaboration actually exists. Seems like a fake rumor, at least until we get further confirmation.

I agree with Dave. I do feel that one of the big three will eventually 'crack' and go with a Tesla drivetrain for an EV truck but this would be news that I think LeBeau would be all over OR it would be announced by GM/Tesla. It would be positive news for both companies.

EDIT: @ZachShahan : Is the source the same one Karen had?

 

[ZachShahan]

Tesla used to move massively with announcements and rumors. Now days it seems positive rumors and announcements are usually met with a tepid reception. Too many delays and missed deadlines mixed with massive FUD and you have investors on the sidelines waiting for evidence to hit them in the face after the fact.

I don't recall significant news moving the share price for years. Maybe occasionally when Elon says something huge on a conference call. Just basically about deliveries and financial reports (and certain tweets), from my memory.

What I felt I learned in 2013 was that the market moves several months after the news, once something is basically written in stone.

 

[Hock1]

I agree its very low bid to pay for the potential of the solution. I would disagree that there will be a competitive bid. A couple of reasons, one is that traditional OEMs could give to craps about battery tech. They assume some auto parts manufacturer will supply them with batteries, they have zero doubts about this and just do not care bout battery tech. Second is that this has definitely been shopped to more then Tesla. If you are Maxwell, do you want to be acquired by a fast growing company or a slow growing company like LG or Samsung? Those are giant successful companies but they are going to deliver 20x over the next decade. Tesla did pay a 50% premium and it appears that Maxwell has accepted and this is not a hostile takeover. There is also a good chance that Tesla has determined how to make it work in their process and others have not. Its a billion dollar a year solution so its worth more then $218M. The only reason you get it that cheap is if it needs a lot of work still. Its one thing to validate it in lab and build some demo cells, even rapid testing that Jeff Dahn can do on chemistry to validate. Its another thing to manufacture a billion cells with the new tech. Very few companies are down with that kind of risk, where Tesla is prone to seek out risk and embrace it with open arms. There is also a good chance that Tesla is uniquely positioned to evaluate the tech with Panasonic and Jeff Dahn as well Tesla themselves with as much experience as anyone in battery tech for large scale storage and automotive. This also goes to risk, battery cells for a camcorder is much different then cells for a car and very few companies have the kind of experience Tesla/Pana/Dahn have at this point. Same goes with Utility grade storage using batteries.

I hope that owners for Maxwell are happy to be owners of Tesla, you are getting in on the cheap for sure. I get that the stock was $40 and now $4, but you have a chance to be $80 from here so I hope you dollar cost averaged.

FWIW. I bot TSLA when I bot my first S in June 2013. I am still long TSLA. The TSLA shares I'll receive from tender, will increase my position 30-40 percent, depending on TSLA share price when deal is done.
Thanks for your thoughts. I think you're right. The pool of possible buyers is minimal, if not non-existent.

 

[EVNow]

I agree with Dave. I do feel that one of the big three will eventually 'crack' and go with a Tesla drivetrain for an EV truck but this would be news that I think LeBeau would be all over OR it would be announced by GM/Tesla. It would be positive news for both companies.

Detroit is not good at keeping secrets. So, I won't be surprised if this rumor turns out to be true. There were rumors about a GM EV for more than a year before Bolt was announced.

 

[madodel]

New talking point from Bob Lutz: "GM saves Tesla by buying powertrains from them'

But can GM save GM from the stupidity exemplified by Bob Lutz?

 

[Buckminster]

We got to be careful around Karen now (code name Mary). Taking all our trade secrets back to Detroit....

 

[Rarity]

If Maxwell's claim at the Needham Conference that there's a path to > 500 wh/kg holds true, then Tesla will be starting an aircraft division soon.

 

[doctoxics]

What information leads to the conclusion that S/X production will decrease from 100K to 80K per annum? My understanding is that increased efficiency of the S/X lines makes up for the cancelled shift. Also, demand remains high for both S and X.

Poor wording on my part since you did provide your reasons. I can see the S and X being less than 25K in Q1 due to selling out inventory in Q4 and the focus on Model 3 to Asia and Europe in Q1. However, as in past years, Q2-Q4 make up for Q1. I do not find the information by you and others sufficient to expect less than 100K per annum S and X sales. We'll know at year end.

 

[EVNow]

Naturally, this is not the kind of news GM or Tesla are going to talk about if it is important to GM to not have it highlighted, which is what I was told.

So, GM thinks they have do this without it ever becoming news ? Or is it a timing thing ?

 

[KarenRei]

No live stream for the LA / Garcetti press conference? I've been looking for one and can't find it.

 

[TradingInvest]

Poor wording on my part since you did provide your reasons. I can see the S and X being less than 25K in Q1 due to selling out inventory in Q4 and the focus on Model 3 to Asia and Europe in Q1. However, as in past years, Q2-Q4 make up for Q1. I do not find the information by you and others sufficient to expect less than 100K per annum S and X sales. We'll know at year end.

For S and X, I think right now production is not the limiting factor, demand is. The cars are great, but not so many people buy cars in that price range (ASP went up after low tier S and X are dropped). Model 3 takes away some demand too.

After HW3 and SW10 are installed, more people will buy Tesla, including S and X. That's why I think in the long run, S and X demand probably can reach 150k a year. Model 3 and Y are different, in the not so distant future, the demand could reach 20 million a year.

Edit: I know the 20 million a year demand sounds crazy. At current rate, Model 3 and Model Y will continue to get better and reduce cost, FSD may become standard in a few years, at that time, nobody will still buy ICE cars.

If another company can produce EVs that are better than Tesla's cars and cost less, then they would get the 20 million demand, not Tesla. I feel Tesla's lead in EV field will get stronger in the next 10 years. I don't see any real competition on the horizon.

 

[KarenRei]

For S and X, I think right now production is not the limiting factor, demand is. The cars are great, but not so many people buy cars in that price range (ASP went up after low tier S and X are dropped). Model 3 takes away some demand too.

After HW3 and SW10 are installed, more people will buy Tesla, including S and X. That's why I think in the long run, S and X demand probably can reach 150k a year. Model 3 and Y are different, in the not so distant future, the demand could reach 20 million a year.

I assume you mean 2 million, not 20 million At 20M Model 3+Y per year at an average ASP of $46k, Tesla would be the world's 17th largest economy

 

[CuriousSunbird]

I assume you mean 2 million, not 20 million At 20M Model 3+Y per year at an average ASP of $46k, Tesla would be the world's 17th largest economy

I wouldn't assume that. Over-optimistic demand predictions are not unknown on this forum.

 

[Cobbler]

What's up with the negative news from GF2? Elon is apparently neglecting it?
The Latest News From The Tesla Gigafactory 2 In Buffalo Isn't Good | CleanTechnica

 

[KarenRei]

What's up with the negative news from GF2? Elon is apparently neglecting it?
The Latest News From The Tesla Gigafactory 2 In Buffalo Isn't Good | CleanTechnica

Tesla is meeting its current contractual GF2 employment requirements and has been (successfully) focusing its capital where it's the most profitable (improving Model 3 production rates and cost efficiencies), while getting more real-world data gathering on prototype solar roofs. What's the problem, exactly? What would you have done differently in their situation?

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

What's up with the negative news from GF2? Elon is apparently neglecting it?
The Latest News From The Tesla Gigafactory 2 In Buffalo Isn't Good | CleanTechnica

Production problems. Heard that before.

 

[Unpilot]

What's up with the negative news from GF2? Elon is apparently neglecting it?
The Latest News From The Tesla Gigafactory 2 In Buffalo Isn't Good | CleanTechnica

The clone machine tech is the problem.

 

[Joe F]

The devil's in the details.

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