Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Thekiwi]

HW3 demo?

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

Taking TSLA private???

 

[Fact Checking]

Like the SEC going to Tesla and saying that we're considering filing a contempt case against Musk and is there any reason that we shouldn't?

Even if the SEC threatened that, if Tesla is certain they are right, they would want to escalate this to the judge with the SEC trying to regulate a tweet where they think they have strong cards, to establish a favorable ruling.

It's also reasonable to believe that the SEC is not acting in good faith - in which case it's prudent not to reveal legal arguments and the full evidence until it can be presented to the judge.

If this motion goes Tesla's way (which it might not) they could also file for a declaratory order regulating the SEC's future handling of compliance complaints, given the extreme stock price reaction. That would be a rather epic filing, even if not granted by the court.

Plus Tesla and Elon must be itching to establish their First Amendment rights.

In all of these cases it would be in Tesla's best interest to not reveal their best arguments until they make their court filing.

Or they might indeed be scrambling and improvising - I don't know.

 

[riverFox]

Oracle buying Tesla??

 

[NicoV]

Thursday 2pm? Payoff?

Isn’t that the date that the bonds need to be payed back?

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

Isn’t that the date that the bonds need to be payed back?

Thursday is Feb 28, bonds payment due March 1
close enough but i doubt it, it's more of a reveal or presentation i think.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Model Y reveal?

Elon Musk on Twitter

Nawh, it's time for the SR (end of Feb).

 

[Antares Nebula]

Yes, curious. Can't be model Y. Something with one of his other companies maybe or something minor with Tesla? The thing is there are so many potential catalysts with TSLA this year and into next: cheaper model 3, model y, pickup, solar roof, hw3, autopilot upgrades, semi, roadster, S and X refresh/redesign, Shanghai (and possibly other) GFs...

The stock is stupid cheap. Foolish to sell here. Can shoot up any day. Best risk/reward level ever in history of the stock. Was trading at this level four years ago, but so much progress since.

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

We should create a quick poll

1. FSD related
2. 35k SR
3. Bonds cash payment
4. Boring Co
5. Model Y
6. No clues...

 

[anthonyj]

Either bankrupt 1 day early as my fellow unbiased and fair TSLAQ buddies are suggesting, or this:

Elon Musk on Twitter

It's not Model Y, too soon for a reveal. If it is I will eat some shorts with bbq sauce and livestream it

 

[dddaaa0]

Any guesses on what the next cryptic tweet would be?

Thursday 2pm
California

> Los Angeles
> Hawthorne Design Center
> Y not?
> Lets raise the roof
> I've a chip on my shoulder

 

[mongo]

He always means run rate.

Yep:

There is also the calibration factor from the ARK podcast (which every investor should listen to): Elon numbers are often peak rates, multiply by 80-85% to get the average rate. At 9:25:
On the Road to Full Autonomy With Elon Musk — FYI Podcast

Also estimated 1.5 million cars in 2021...

On the low end 80% of 1.5 million is 1.2 million, which supported the post I was replying to:

i completely agree with the sentiment of your post, but I believe your timelines are way too conservative. Tesla will produce and sell 1 million vehicles annually by 2021 for sure, possibly by 2020.

Which was in response to:

By 2023 Tesla probably will produce and sell 1 million vehicles per year (Model 3, Y, S, X, truck, Roadster). The production is likely to reach 2~3 million by 2025. I can see how Tesla get $10B free cash flow in 2023, and $20~30B free cash flow in 2025.

At this time it makes no sense to short the company at a market cap of 51 billion dollars. Especially the US China deal is very likely to happen soon. The main thing bears hope for is that Tesla's demand will run out. Most Tesla owners know that's not going to happen. More and more people will find out how great Tesla EVs are. Tesla will be on the top of their wishlist. Each year 90 million vehicles are bought. As Tesla continue to reduce cost and improve the vehicles, ICE manufactures should worry about demand.

I hope all Tesla investors stay healthy, follow sound investment strategies.

Elon also said dates can shift by 6-12 months which is a huge volume shift on an exponential curve, so 50% either way would not be unexpected, but puts a 2023 volume of 1 million well under the low end of time/ production shift.

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

Isn't Supercharger V3 supposed to unveil sometime early 2019?? Forgot about that push back from late 2018 to early q1 2019

 

[Gavyne]

If $35k Model 3, why "California"? Feels like something else.

 

[Fact Checking]

We should create a quick poll

1. FSD related
2. 35k SR
3. Bonds cash payment
4. Boring Co
5. Model Y
6. No clues...

• Supercharger v3
• Boring Company related: such as a high speed convoy demo in the Hawthorne tunnel. Press presence would be limited and subject to NDA.
• Could also be SpaceX.

Not necessarily Tesla related: they'd want to do positive announcements after the March 1 bond repayment?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

Well, he said California, so clearly it’s not related to any of his companies based in other states. Just to narrow it down.

On a slightly more serious note, I wonder if this would be considered “material information”. Ostensibly, whether it’s actually about Tesla wouldn’t even matter, since nobody outside can tell one way or the other.

 

[anthonyj]

Highest to lowest probability:

Elon/Grimes get married
Model 3 SR reveal
Teslaquilla
TSLA/SpaceX merger (pls)
...
Chapter 11
Model Y reveal

Model Y doesn't exist. Prove me wrong Elon, I know you're reading this

 

[JustAaronnoraA]

Lathrop related???

 

[CharlesSr]

Thursday, 2pm

It’s 420. 0 could mean paying off the bond, but could also mean something else.

 

[BLSmith2112]

Right after market closes, so something market moving I suspect...