Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[dw4ngg]

Also while I say a partnership with Apple would be good.....it would have to be on Elon's/Tesla's terms. Apple would just be getting their services and software on Tesla hardware. So Apple music, their new streaming service, apps, etc.. I wouldn't want Apple touching anything else.

They can own the Tesla app

 

[Jo-]

Tusks need to be left alone.
Elon Tusk on Twitter

 

[PhaseWhite]

If it was something physical that you could see and touch and was jaw dropping, there would be invites. It’s a news item.

My picks (In order):
1. Strategic partnership: this has been rumored in this thread and elsewhere. Speculation says its a deal with GM. Perhaps it gives Tesla a cash infusion. This would be really bullish for SP.
2. Autopilot HW3 shipping in all new cars.
3. Introduction of the first Model 3 Standard range offering for order: shipping 2H with 240 miles of range

 

[Carl Raymond]

I feel like everyone is ignoring the obvious: That tomorrow's announcement is simply that Tesla has paid their bond off. That's it.

If you're expecting the Model Y driving itself under the ocean to Europe, well that's your own fault for expecting anything other than the obvious!

Possibly, but Musk deliberately lit the speculation fuse, knowing it would backfire if he disappointed. A finance housekeeping matter is unworthy of such hoopla. They would simply announce “it’s done”.

 

[kyzhk]

Possibly, but Musk deliberately lit the speculation fuse, knowing it would backfire if he disappointed. A finance housekeeping matter is unworthy of such hoopla. They would simply announce “it’s done”.

I doubt EM predicted market's reaction (almost +6%) to his tweet. Unless some other big funds caught wind of non public info...

 

[waterloo42]

Yeah.....I think you're post reaffirms my point. Doesn't matter if those services generate more revenue than most S&P companies(which is a bogus claim.....those companies don't have a market cap of 825 billion). Apple failed, spectacularly, at Apple TV and it's becoming more and more apparent they've failed at an Autonomous vehicles. When your new endeavors into new markets generate a very, very small fraction of your total revenue, it's considered a failure.

How is that bogus and what does market cap have to do with revenue? Apple Reports 1Q 2019 Results: Nearly $20B Profit on $84.3B Revenue, Second-Best Quarter Ever Despite Earnings Warning gives the breakdown... 21% of revenue in this last quarter was from Services and Wearables which represents $17.7B / quarter or $70B annualized. That puts it in the top 50 of the entire S&P 500 by revenue (this ranking is as of end early 2018 but close enough http://fortune.com/fortune500/list).

So you may not agree it's innovative (I'd rather have hoped Apple would make more progress on autonomous software as well) but this is not a small fraction nor a failure. It only looks small because the iPhone is such an enormous money maker.

 

[oneday]

For China factory, where will Tesla get the money? How will it be funded? Where will they get the money? Blah blah blah

All the bears were screaming non stop and Dana Hull made a sarcastic comment even today on Twitter.

All the while bulls knew it and it was already laid out by Elon in Q4 earnings - low interest loans from China banks.

Tesla is lining up about $2 billion in loans for Shanghai Gigafactory: analyst report

3.9% interest rates mentioned in that article. That is quite compelling if it turns out to be true.

 

[Causalien]

Possibly, but Musk deliberately lit the speculation fuse, knowing it would backfire if he disappointed. A finance housekeeping matter is unworthy of such hoopla. They would simply announce “it’s done”.

Feels more like maliscious compliance to SEC. "look, I am preannouncing an announcement and using this time to get approval from all lawyers" oh guess what, it is more market moving than material info.

Bunch of merry dumb c**t at the SEC

 

[mblakele]

Anyone else find it suggestive that Elon Tusk (ET) waited an hour between the three tweets?

1. Thursday 2pm
2. California
3. Some Tesla news

It’s almost as if each message was a drive, and he had to stop to supercharge in between. Each message was also very brief, even for twitter.

But that’s probably just apophenia....

 

[anthonyj]

Gut instincts widely, and are vulnerable to emotional trading (euphoria or dispair). IMHO, Technical Analysis (T/A) can be a useful tool when used as a single factor among many that inform your investment and trading strategy.

I posted this comment regarding T/A after the Market closed on Dec 12, 2018 (yes, the day before the start of the recent selloff in TSLA):



So here's what happened the following day, Dec 13, 2018:

• the intraday high was reached near the close at $377.44
• that was just $2.05 below the Dec 7 intraday high
• that's also $20 above the Dec 7 Low/Closing SP at $357.88
• this is screaming SELL SOME, PAPA! with SP above the Upper-BB
• alas, I dinna listen to the screams (more on that below)
• similar to the screaming on Dec 7 (just fewer Mitsubishi Zeros)

View attachment 381261

Inevitably, here's what TSLA did over the 2 weeks following its Dec 13 peak: (an $80 haircut)

View attachment 381242

Yep, saw that coming. So I'd say T/A 'worked' (not that I liked the action), meaning T/A "predicted in advance", not "saw in hindsight" SP.

It's mostly about the Bollinger Bands. When TSLA failed to break through the Upper-BB on the morning of Dec 13, it then doggedly marched down its Bollinger band range to test support at the lower-BB. Volatility.

View attachment 381261

For more color, here's the Dec 19 chart: (note how the BBs themselves moved down over the past 4 sessions).

View attachment 381262

IMHO, the issue is not whether T/A works, it's about having the confidence (and the capital) to trade based on it. Here my closing comment from Dec 12, 2018:



April is my 1st anniversary in this journey we call TSLA. I've held all my shares through all the swings since the July 2018 Q2 production announcement / selloff. Now I'm considering adding capital to my investment account. My goal is to have capital available quickly to take advantage of these dubious swings (GS, NYT, Joe Rogan, SEC, Bloomberg) to increase my core holdings.

I'm well-positioned for the eventual TSLA breakout, but none of us knows when that will come. Meanwhile, I'd like to take some gains as an Investor, not just watch as whipsaw profits go to the market-makers. I'll use T/A to inform my cash vs. shares holdings, and I'll also jump on FUD-inspired dips but use the profits to increase in my core holdings while preserving my cash balance. Yeah. That'll work for the next year.

And to summarize my past year in song, "regrets I have a few, but then again, too few to mention..."

Cheers, and GLTA!

P.S. today's T/A values for TSLA: (remember these do move over time, but slowly)

• MA(200) 316.27
• Lower-BB: 292.45
• Middle-BB:307.14
• Upper-BB: 321.83
• MA(50) 316.78

I remember S&P breaking support the next day. Then the whole market tanked and threw out the baby with the bath water. Tesla was finally looking strong at 360+

 

[heltok]

Tim Cook only cares about profit. He doesn't give a fig about innovation, so Tesla and Cook would be a very poor match.

If Tesla captures 25% of the ride sharing market, which they might do given that they already dominate long range EV and data gathering, Tesla will be printing more money than Apple. See
White Paper: Why Self-Driving Cars Could Change Everything

And Apple’s $200B war chest, A13x processors, iOS app store etc wouldn’t hurt the probabilities of achieving this either.

 

[oneday]

Besides, I can't think of anything that would make Elon smile so much as getting to share a bunch of cool stuff that the updated AP will do on the new hardware. I'm prepared to be excited. And if it's sufficiently cool, we'll probably see a TSLA bump as well.

Agreed, showing off stop sign, stop light, remote control Tesla, parking lot navigation etc. Would be a really cool demo.

 

[EVNow]

ep, saw that coming. So I'd say T/A 'worked' (not that I liked the action), meaning T/A "predicted in advance", not "saw in hindsight" SP.

It's mostly about the Bollinger Bands. When TSLA failed to break through the Upper-BB on the morning of Dec 13, it then doggedly marched down its Bollinger band range to test support at the lower-BB. Volatility.

Because Nasdaq fell from 7200 to 6200 between 12/14 and 12/24. We'll never know what would have happened to TSLA, if Nasdaq didn't dive down.

 

[dw4ngg]

I also predict Musk is messing with the SEC to show them the tweet-in-contempt did nothing to the stock, while the SEC motion and a non-material tweet on “news to come” that is completely ok makes the stock go bonkers.

 

[anthonyj]

I doubt EM predicted market's reaction (almost +6%) to his tweet. Unless some other big funds caught wind of non public info...

I think a lot of shorts capitulated yesterday and today. They are sick of this crazy train. What kind of stock pumps from $285 pre-market to $315 over an SEC investigation. Dead volume for a month and another SEC investigation is what gives us a reversal? Lol wtf. This stock trades on rainbow unicorn farts

 

[EVNow]

Anyone else find it suggestive that Elon Tusk (ET) waited an hour between the three tweets?

1. Thursday 2pm
2. California
3. Some Tesla news

It’s almost as if each message was a drive, and he had to stop to supercharge in between. Each message was also very brief, even for twitter.

But that’s probably just apophenia....

I find it weird that he tweets apparently important stuff so haphazardly.

One hour is easy to guess - meetings. The 2 subsequent tweets could be because of some questions he saw, in between meetings, in reply to his tweet.

 

[Mars ☰mperor]

US politically related news was overwhelming today.

Still, many so-called journalists are devoted to Tesla specifically.
It's not that they have been too busy writing or reading other US news.
If it was any potentially negative topic, they would have pounced on it, thinking so hard of some eye-catching headline all while pulling an all-nighter.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Because Nasdaq fell from 7200 to 6200 between 12/14 and 12/24.

...and because some random Billionaire placed a huge bet against Tesla ($150B in Puts). But we didn't find out about that until his 45-day SEC filing window closed on Feb 15, 2019.

But we never know 'News' while it still matters, do we? All we have is the SP, Vol, and Options activity. That's the basis of T/A.

BTW, the NASDAQ-100 dropped 12.8% during that period while TSLA dropped 21.6%. Then over the next month (Jan 24), NASDAQ gained 7.0% while TSLA lost 1.3%

The point is TSLA is being manipulated, on the way down with a multipler vs the macros, and on the way up due to capping. And we NEVER know who's doing it while we have an opportunity to act on the information.

That's asymetrical warfare, which calls for different tactics.

 

[heltok]

Replying to this thread:

Apple Confirms 190 Layoffs From Self-Driving Car Project

As an investor, I am slightly concerned Apple is considering or has already pulled the trigger on buying Tesla.

At minimum, perhaps some kind of joint venture.

Apple has unlimited cash and a lot of manufacturing oversight experience while Tesla needs cash and struggles with production/quality control.

Tesla’s long term mission is to accelerate transition to electric cars. However Tesla today is so far ahead, in terms of production numbers, range and costs, that it is very hard to competitors to compete with Tesla without losing money. Apple can’t really enter a market half assed, the risk for Apple is that they release a car and once they start to manufacture it at scale it is worse than what Tesla is currently offering in terms of range, acceleration and price.

So maybe Apple will just give up the idea of making their own car.

What Apple could do instead is to integrate Tesla’s cars into the iOS ecosystem, provide A13x processors, iPad displays(heck just put an actual iPad into the car), modems and bring valueable knowhow in computer security, camera design and mass production. And to bankroll a more aggressive rollout of gigafactories.

The value of the ride sharing market is pretty huge:
https://research.ark-invest.com/self-driving-cars-white-paper

If Tesla&Apple manages to capture 50% of the market, that would be a $2T market cap in five years.

So how would they do it? Tim cook could offer to buy 50% of Musks 40M shares, and in addition buy another 20M newly minted shares for $420 each to a cost of $16.8B. They would then have a 25% share of TSLA. They would get a share of Tesla’s profits and also get a lot of hardware sales, iOS users etc. Tesla can make some Maxwell batteries for Apple’s product line and help Apple move more production to America.

To me this seems like a pretty good investment for Apple and there are a lot of synergies between the companies.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I remember S&P breaking support the next day. Then the whole market tanked and threw out the baby with the bath water. Tesla was finally looking strong at 360+

Yep, me too. I wish I'd have taken some profits at the top though, just on the technicals.

In the future, I'm going to balance my cash vs. shares more based on that, rather than just holding the stock endlessly. Goal is to add to core holdings from swings, w/o trading that core.

I'd actually have quite a few more shares that way vs. what I hold now. Kinda like how ARK Invest works it, except not moving my profits out of TSLA into other equities.

Cheers!