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  1. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    the "private" apis have been documented and used by various third party apps for quite some years now. Even if it were not the case, for hackers with some basic minimum skills for the job, it would be quite easy to discover all apis used in the tesla app, granted they may need to first have...
  2. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    For any chemical reactions, the total mass of reactants and products differ by mass given in E=mc^2, where E is the energy released or absorbed into the system during the reactions, and mass is the delta of the total mass of products less that of reactants. The energy stored/released in...
  3. K

    Elon: FSD Beta tweets

    For an alpha version of a software in very limited access (As EM mentioned, only employees + selected few who asked for it) for internal testing, the general expectation is that feedbacks are collected in some internal channels, at least that is how it is supposed to work given my experience...
  4. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I am guessing it's only talking about locally manufactured heat pumps. The criteria set by DOE have long been met by foreign heat pump manufacturers like Daikin, fujitsu, mitsubishi and some chinese ones with HSPF > 12.0
  5. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    EM is engineering minded. In engineering terms, something is basically zero when: valuation of fsd + everything else ~= valuation of fsd or equivalently valuation of fsd / (valuation of fsd + everything else) tends toward 1 It just means that the value of FSD is orders of magnitude larger...
  6. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You need to look at the japanese models. Parents house ~3k sq ft in massachusetts which sees 0F on some days is kept warm @ 69F with a single multi zone hyper heat model heat pump (no aux heat). Though the house was a new build and a lot of attention was paid to air sealing and insulation. So...
  7. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Don't really see positives here. Legacy detroit will be incentivized to produce PHEV at volume grabbing base credit $4000 + union assembly $4500 + domestic battery $500. a $8500 - $9000 subsidy for making PHEV is basically a handout to legacy impeding the transition to full EV production.
  8. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There is a scenario where having the legacy automakers going electric can actually slow down the mission. Given that Tesla is able to make a better product from same or less battery than the legacy autos, diverting battery supply to build inferior products will slow down Tesla's production...
  9. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Thats cherry picking. Everyone can be a good analyst with a collection of random stock picks and justify them being a good analyst if you just remove their underperforming stock ratings after the fact.
  10. K

    Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread

    1) induce arbitrary electricity demand through supporting inefficient crypto currency. 2) Increases rate of renewable electricity sources build-out 3) transition cryptos to energy-efficient protocols 4) excess supply forces expensive fossil fuel energy sources to close down 5) accelerates...
  11. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It is not dilution at the time of share issuance but a dilution of future appreciation (capital gain and dividend included). * if the capital raise was done just for the sake of it without tangible benefit derived from the cash received. Given that EM did comment tesla is already spending money...
  12. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I think his point is that once his YTD income exceed a certain threshold (at each bracket limit), the additional work he put in makes him less and less i.e. reward for the same work reduces over a tax year (or, marginal cost for getting same amount of "profit" increases)
  13. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    You just have to write the covered calls now and it will be bullish instead.
  14. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Supposedly if one is successful with the covered call selling game you can go an entire year without assignment - where would share sale designation come into picture in this case?
  15. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I've asked this before but don't think I got an answer here - do you know what happens in the following example: let's say you have 200 shares with 100 shares that has already reached long term for capital gains purpose, and another 100 shares in short term status. Sell 1 non-qualified covered...
  16. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Doesn't that mean I should be greedy because of your fear?
  17. K

    Options trading strategy/advice

    Suppose you have 200 shares of tsla with two tax lots of 100 shares each, A and B. Suppose also that A has uninterrupted holding period of greater than 1 year. Now we have: Tax lot A: long term capital gain status Tax lot B: short term capital gain status with holding period 0 days starting...
  18. K

    Tax discussion, strategies and questions

    Since covered calls got brought up - Suppose you have 200 shares of tsla with two tax lots of 100 shares each, A and B. Suppose also that A has uninterrupted holding period of greater than 1 year. Now we have: Tax lot A: long term capital gain status Tax lot B: short term capital gain status...
  19. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Honest question and I don't have an answer: Do we usually see a +15% following a regular stock split (the idea and differences on regular stock split vs split by stock dividend is indeed intriguing) announcement? Could there be leaks about S&P 500 imminent inclusion?
  20. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Judging from your reliable history of predicting the opposite in the past, thank you for your service.
  21. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Stop with your $/acre non-sense. Opportunity cost of time is worth way more than what would be a rounding error to the operation cost of the factory.
  22. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Actually, android fragmentation on phone is a horrible issue. Even flagship phones people pay premium for ($1000+ samsung flagships) are only supported for 2 major os update. The major reasons are two-fold: 1) android relies on binary blob supplied by silicon vendor (for example, qualcomm...
  23. K

    Is current sensor suite enough to reach FSD? (out of main)

    For a given neural network, inference latency, memory usage is constant i.e. computational characteristics is invariant for a given neural network regardless of inputs. Assuming we have an agreement on neural network inference computation charactertistics, I interpret what you said to mean that...
  24. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    tsla movement looks identical to nasdaq with multiplier after the dip. In the early session though it seems suppressed.
  25. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    It sounds like inflammatory conditions of different body parts i.e. tonsillitis, cystitis
  26. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I don't think the accounts are individually hacked. Most likely twitter itself is hacked. i.e. whoever did it already have full access to any twitter handles.
  27. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    or, 14% dividend per year from your tsla holdings with little risk of assignment for the weeklies (at current stock price, need +130% in a single week to risk assignment). Though I expect the $3500 strike premium to go down following IV crush after some consolidation.
  28. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Farther out covered calls at same strike are way more risky in getting ITM, and does not provide meaningfully more premium compared to selling weeklies repeatedly. Selling weeklies provide you flexibility to stop selling/moving to higher strike along with stock surge, and letting current ones...
  29. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Suppose you have 4000 shares, you get low risk $16000 premium for it which can be used to buy more TSLA. Imagine doing this every week.
  30. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    anyone dare to sell $3500 strike covered call expiring 7/24?
  31. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Disagree. Battery production capacity is limited. Tesla makes the most efficient (and desirable) EVs, therefore the more battery production capacity allocated to tesla the more EVs can be produced. i.e. for a given volume of battery production capacity and a given demand for EVs in different...
  32. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The last time I heard their earning report their management was either incompetent enough to not be able to find accurate information about Tesla or they intentionally lied about Tesla's specs. Either way I concluded that I should stay away from them because I don't touch any company with shitty...
  33. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    How fast can they open up higher option strikes? Currently the monthly expiration ones only goes up to 1880 with the furthest out one in 2022 june going up to 2100 only.
  34. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Quite some categories of things are certainly more probable to achieve with a lot of money than without. Let's not assume that making a lot of money is the endgoal.
  35. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    I doubt we could draw any meaningful conclusions from the metric reported by jdpower. Toy example: Car model A and car model B produced by the same manufacturer with everything equal except that car A always have one failed usb port, and car B always have one wheel that falls apart after 15...
  36. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Well I would have assumed a judgement would help clarifying future lockdown orders. Say if Alameda county were to re-issue orders in the coming weeks to close down manufacturing plant that is contradicting federal stay open order of critical infrastructure, what then?
  37. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Well I suppose EM should have never questioned the experts in auto industry and aerospace industry. Everyone let's pack up, tesla and spacex are not supposed to exist to begin with.
  38. K

    Coronavirus

    Known fact that is observed: 1) There are excess deaths in some cities adjusted for seasonality compared to historical norm. Hypothesis that can be tested: 1) Excess death are mainly contributed by death from covid19 2) Excess death are mainly contributed by certain lockdown practices that...
  39. K

    Coronavirus

    Are there studies about excess death from peope who are not treated due to covid19? In some US cities there are hospitals with lower than pre covid19 utilization. Rather than attributing all excess death to direct casualty from covid19 might be helpful to get a estimate how much of those come...
  40. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Problem is some of these officials have shown that they are only capable in one dimensional thinking. They have not shown that they are capable of assessing damage of the situation as a whole, but rather only tunnel visioning to direct casualties of covid19. Secondary damage in such lock down...
  41. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    He is making a point in reply to criticism that he wants to reopen the economy because all he cares about is money and not people's well being. He probably believes that his action today discredits this specific criticism. We will see if there's going to be any follow up on this as his opinion...
  42. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    The way I read his tweet: 1) Following his tweet about freeing america, he received criticisms that he cares more about money than people's well being by exposing them to the virus. 2) His tweet today speaks loud and clear: "You think I care about money? I don't." What is likely in his mind: -...
  43. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    One thing I gathered on reddit and from some individuals is how little they understand paper wealth. Past certain point (pretty low bar) the billions lost and billions gained reported in headlines are meaningless figures associated with stock fluctuation that has very little meaning. Elon...
  44. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    There are valid arguments from both side, but extreme measures (from both ends) seems to do more harm than good. From one of Elon Musk's tweet he included data from data.chhs.ca.gov which shows that the hospital bed occupancy projection with intervention is wildly overestimating actual...
  45. K

    Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

    Regarding Musk's tweet: 1) Solving climate change and space colonization are likely his very top priority occupying his mind most of the time. 2) Potential damage from covid19 is likely a rounding error to the order of magnitude of damage that comes with climate change. Any delay to solving...
  46. K

    Coronavirus

    Not sure if its been done yet - one way to quickly confirm efficacy of hydroxychloroquine would be to check the proportion (or lack thereof) of patients who have lupus / arthritis with confirmed covid19 and hospitalization rate. A significant difference in the distribution of lupus/arthritis...
  47. K

    Coronavirus

    Wasn't arguing against your point. Just interested if and how we are using placebo effect to our advantage. Thanks for the information. I guess "off-label" and "compassionate care" are the standard procedure for taking advantage of the placebo effect.
  48. K

    Coronavirus

    Since at this stage, we are primarily still relying on the immune system to fight off the virus, shouldn't we take full advantage of the placebo effect? Does it violate ethics code to lying about using a "cure" on a patient?