Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

I've spent the past 4 days in NYC. As I sit here in a Starbucks on Park Ave and watch vehicles roll by, it's clear that Tesla has very little market penetration, especially in the urban core. That's not surprising given the limitations on apartment charging infrastructure. It's such a stark contrast to my experience living in the San Francisco Bay Area and spending a lot of time in the Seattle-Bellevue area. I don't think Wall Street and Madison Avenue quite understand the vehicle and energy juggernaut emerging in California. Buckle up for some short term turbulence, but in less than two years the incredible advantages that Tesla has will be revealed and no manipulation or ignorance will be able to stop it.

Yes, this is part of my Tesla thesis: there's a serious case of group bias against Tesla among NY hedge funds, reinforced by historic NYT FUD and the relative rarity of Teslas in the inner city.

They literally cannot imagine Tesla succeeding, many suspect some "fraud", and they consider it a mostly safe shorting target based on 5 years of stock price track record.

 

[Garlands]

At this point i believe the only thing cause this stock to break out will be when legacy carmaker sales collapse. With the 35k model 3, reduced price points for all models, model y unveliing, this could happen within the next 2 quarters.

 

[elasalle]

I've spent the past 4 days in NYC. As I sit here in a Starbucks on Park Ave and watch vehicles roll by, it's clear that Tesla has very little market penetration, especially in the urban core. That's not surprising given the limitations on apartment charging infrastructure. It's such a stark contrast to my experience living in the San Francisco Bay Area and spending a lot of time in the Seattle-Bellevue area. I don't think Wall Street and Madison Avenue quite understand the vehicle and energy juggernaut emerging in California. Buckle up for some short term turbulence, but in less than two years the incredible advantages that Tesla has will be revealed and no manipulation or ignorance will be able to stop it.

Really stupid MM if that's the case. Can't be MM by looking just at own backyard.
Peter Lynch approach of investing in products you see is for retail investors ...

 

[CaliBear1]

Go a bit north from NYC - you will see a much different picture. Teslas all over the place in Westchester (NY) and Greenwich (CT).

I bet the same is true in the more affluent sections of Long Island. But Wall Street and Madison Ave influence emanate from NYC. Sure they think they know Silicon Valley, but not when it comes to vehicles and energy. Tesla is applying a SV model to large scale manufacturing. THAT has never been done and the quarterly focus of WS and the forces arrayed against Tesla obscure what we here see as obvious. Time will tell.

 

[Drax7]

Go a bit north from NYC - you will see a much different picture. Teslas all over the place in Westchester (NY) and Greenwich (CT). Many of the Wall Street folks live in these areas.

Hamptons are full of Tesla’s, that’s where the wealthy nyc folks drive.

 

[Krugerrand]

I doubt it will be day one but it won't be too long after it opens. I don't think Tesla will want to ramp up two different production lines at the same time. But since they should essentially be replicating the most recent Model 3 lines it shouldn't take all that long to get those lines ramped up. Installation of the Model Y lines will then be completed (it will have started shortly after the M3 lines have been installed) and production started.

Yes, I think they do. Elon has said they want to develop multiple vehicles per year rather than one vehicle every couple of years. No better time than the present to get to it.

 

[Cosmacelf]

The evidence presented by Jack Rickard on EV-TV 2 weeks ago is exactly the opposite of that: he measured the 18650 cell energy/weight to be the same as the Model 3's 2170 (watch from 50:00)

You are misunderstanding what I wrote, i think. Jack did not measure how much current a cell can charge at compared to cell longevity. That is a very specialized test the likes of what Jeffrey Dahn does. My comment was specifically taking about being able to charge a cell at higher currents. I said nothing about what Jack measured which was gravimetric and volumetric energy density.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Chuan Tesla Model 3 was suspended by China Customs | jqknews

DEFINATELY a scam. I just geo-located that web-site. Its hosted on a server run by CloudFlare.com in San Franciso.

But maybe its in Chinatown, right?

EDIT: Their 'whois.com' database entry lists a UPS Store in Phoenix, AZ as both their Administrative and Technical contacts.

There is already a complaint list that address on ScamWarners.com

 

[Buckminster]

Place your bets:

Poll - March Share Price Estimates

 

[Artful Dodger]

You are misunderstanding what I wrote, i think. Jack did not measure how much current a cell can charge at compared to cell longevity. That is a very specialized test the likes of what Jeffrey Dahn does. My comment was specifically taking about being able to charge a cell at higher currents. I said nothing about what Jack measured which was gravimetric and volumetric energy density.

Present your evidence. Why would they have different chemistries? How would that work when they have the exact same energy density and specific weight? What chemistry would have the same energy density, specific weight, but a different max. charge rate?

Unsupported claims that contradict known information is misinformation.

 

[Cosmacelf]

Amazon stock really didn't do much from 2000 to 2009. It didn't move much years after their prime membership, their AWS offering. Sometimes I guess it takes years for the market to really know stuff.

Yes, I suspect TSLA Won’t move much until the earning reports surprise the market again. This current price action is still a hangover from Elon saying 1Q won’t be profitable. You gotta remember that Elon promised all earnings would be positive going forward not very long ago. At the very least it sounds like the company can’t forecast. And if the company can’t forecast, why would you expect investors to do so since they don’t have the same info that management has? Right now, Tesla could intro a $20K car and the stock price still wouldn’t move up until a good earnings report.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

You gotta remember that Elon promised all earnings would be positive going forward not very long ago

*excepting quarters with large one-time costs.

 

[bhtooefr]

DEFINATELY a scam. I just geo-located that web-site. Its hosted on a server run by CloudFlare.com in San Franciso.

Cloudflare is a very popular service for load balancing websites, for what it's worth - I wouldn't use a website's use of Cloudflare as a sign that it's a scam.

 

[SO16]

*excepting quarters with large one-time costs.

Correct... he did make that stipulation.

 

[tslalala]

*excepting quarters with large one-time costs.

What are the large one-time costs we're expecting this quarter?

 

[chronopublish]

You gotta remember that Elon promised all earnings would be positive going forward not very long ago..

He very clearly made an exception for one-time large debt obligation payments and used Q1 as an example of a quarter that may be break-even or slight loss as a result.

 

[Remus]

What are the large one-time costs we're expecting this quarter?

severance pay, breaking lease and write off assets when closing stores, tens of k cars on the boat?

 

[gtrplyr1]

Can't wait till the 14th ... the Y is the one I've wanted for a while as I really want a lower cost SUV style. As soon as they let me I'm going to transfer my Model3 deposit over .... I think the demand for the Y will outstrip the Model3 exponentially. I have to think that all the pain they went through during model3 ramp can be avoided this time and I'm looking for a much smoother launch. So I guess the big mystery is where will it be produced? Freemont is at capacity and land around there is a fortune so my guess is NV near the gigafactory ... I guess we will know more in 10 days.

Cheers to the longs ....

 

[SO16]

What are the large one-time costs we're expecting this quarter?

Tesla makes record $920 million payment for convertible bond

 

[Cosmacelf]

Present your evidence. Why would they have different chemistries? How would that work when they have the exact same energy density and specific weight? What chemistry would have the same energy density, specific weight, but a different max. charge rate?

Unsupported claims that contradict known information is misinformation.

Seriously? You think cell chemistry hasn’t changed since 2003? You don’t remember Elon stating that their new cells have almost no Cobalt now compared to earlier cells? I’m not going to spend time chasing down evidence. I don’t need to convince you. I’ve already pointed out your fallacy in saying that Jack’s simple tests proved anything about cell current charging/longevity. Also, if you read my original post, I hedge my bets on the faster charge rate being enabled by cell chemistry improvements AND/OR better pack cooling.