Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[jerry33]

I thought Elon was in a good mood. Even if he had totally nailed the presentation in terms of coming across polished, more like when he did the initial model 3 reveal, the intention was clearly to not emphasize too much about the model Y. No need to over-sell it at this point. Just get it out there in the minds of potential customers. That's how I saw it anyway. I don't think Elon is a great public speaker. He does great interviews, but I've been disappointed by many of the presentations I have seen him give. I would prefer to have someone more polished do the event, bringing out Elon for a portion of it. I realize there are lots of differences of opinion about that, that's just mine.

I agree that this wasn't my favourite presentation of his. He's done much better. However, my experience has been that a more polished presentation is less likely to be truthful (think newscasters). Elon always comes across as genuine.

 

[gringotuanis]

I thought Elon was in a good mood. Even if he had totally nailed the presentation in terms of coming across polished, more like when he did the initial model 3 reveal, the intention was clearly to not emphasize too much about the model Y. No need to over-sell it at this point. Just get it out there in the minds of potential customers. That's how I saw it anyway. I don't think Elon is a great public speaker. He does great interviews, but I've been disappointed by many of the presentations I have seen him give. I would prefer to have someone more polished do the event, bringing out Elon for a portion of it. I realize there are lots of differences of opinion about that, that's just mine.

Definitely agree w that. He comes off very socially awkward. Like he never got out of high school goody/nerdy stage but that just goes with the intelligence. Kinda the likable nerd. I agree it's a bit cringy lol. Well at least I cringe when I watch him present. He seems out of place, not comfortable with the attention.

 

[EVNow]

Toyota alone sold 343,349 Camrys in the U.S. in 2018. Toyota Camry Sales Figures | GCBC which is a significant decline from prior years. Plus Honda sold 291,071 Honda Accord Sales Figures in 2018 So yeah, I can easily see 350k yearly demand for Model 3 once the FUD is gone.

I think you borked your numbers there.

Why, how and when do you think the FUD is going away ?

Those 2 cars have much lower ASP. Not comparable.

BTW, why would Tesla build for something you imagine vs what EM says is the demand ?

 

[gringotuanis]

Actually I think the model Y was his attempt to pump the price up again. It just went badly since they did not tease anything else (I mean the truck was so hidden I wouldn't even call it a "one other thing". If they were serious they would have rolled the pick up out. It just feels like he's trying too hard now and not even convinces himself he should do it. I'm actually surprised how bad the presentation was the other day.

I should probably clarify...I wasnt left feeling awesome (just lackluster) about the presentation that night and then definitely wasn't liking the stock price action on Friday!

 

[RobStark]

Toyota alone sold 343,349 Camrys in the U.S. in 2018. Toyota Camry Sales Figures | GCBC which is a significant decline from prior years. Plus Honda sold 291,071 Honda Accord Sales Figures in 2018 So yeah, I can easily see 350k yearly demand for Model 3 once the FUD is gone.

I think you borked your numbers there.

Camcord starts at $24k. Tops out at ~$38k. But Toyonda dealers discount unlike Tesla.

And most Americans shop by monthly payment not 6-10 year TCO.

 

[gringotuanis]

Why, how and when do you think the FUD is going away ?

Those 2 cars have much lower ASP. Not comparable.

BTW, why would Tesla build for something you imagine vs what EM says is the demand ?

On that note I wish model Y was cheaper. I can get a 2 year old Nissan Rogue for low $20s. Almost half the price of Y

 

[jerry33]

Why and when do you think the FUD is going away ?

The first thing that comes to mind is "Throw a snowball in the fire and if it doesn't melt..."

However, I believe it will be the same as the tire industry when switching to radial tires. Most of the FUD went away when all the North American car manufacturers made radial tires standard and all but one North American tire manufacturer went broke. However, around forty years later, I still hear FUD that was circulated during the 60s and 70s. So when we see traditional car dealers start to close, that's about the time the FUD will cease for the most part.

 

[Smokey4141]

Right now all that can be produced is being sold.

Jerry, I've seen you write that several times, and just curious what you see that leads you to believe that...

And I'll say upfront I'm not going to debate the demand issue, just because I'm not looking to get banned again, but, I am trying to understand what you're seeing that makes you think that... Thank you...

 

[KarenRei]

On that note I wish model Y was cheaper. I can get a 2 year old Nissan Rogue for low $20s. Almost half the price of Y

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[jerry33]

Jerry, I've seen you write that several times, and just curious what you see that leads you to believe that...

And I'll say upfront I'm not going to debate the demand issue, just because I'm not looking to get banned again, but, I am trying to understand what you're seeing that makes you think that... Thank you...

I see the delivery numbers posted in TMC. In addition, every Tesla that goes to a new home, means that friends, co-workers, and neighbours will see and at least ride in the car because most owners are really excited about it. Now that there is a true mass market car, rather than premium cars, the number of purchasers should increase dramatically. The one other reason is that if there was a demand issue, Tesla would be advertising. They aren't.

 

[NicoV]

I didn't expect this, but Tesla has practically (93%) finished equipping all the supercharger sites with at least a couple of CCS stalls. Some sites are even completely converted.
Just in time for me, because today I received my final invoice!
Interestingly, my final invoice number comes from the same sequence as my deposit invoice, only about 1700 higher.
Even more interesting, my final invoice lists Zeebrugge as delivery address. I haven't been contacted yet for a delivery appointment, so I can not say yet whether this is something administrative or whether the car will really be delivered in Zeebrugge. I now expect my car to be delivered in the last week of Q1, maybe even a couple of days earlier.

 

[Smokey4141]

I see the delivery numbers posted in TMC. In addition, every Tesla that goes to a new home, means that friends, co-workers, and neighbours will see and at least ride in the car because most owners are really excited about it. Now that there is a true mass market car, rather than premium cars, the number of purchasers should increase dramatically. The one other reason is that if there was a demand issue, Tesla would be advertising. They aren't.

Okay... I'm not even sure what to say to that, but I'll just leave it there....
Thank you...

 

[Smokey4141]

I didn't expect this, but Tesla has practically (93%) finished equipping all the supercharger sites with at least a couple of CCS stalls. Some sites are even completely converted.
Just in time for me, because today I received my final invoice!
Interestingly, my final invoice number comes from the same sequence as my deposit invoice, only about 1700 higher.
Even more interesting, my final invoice lists Zeebrugge as delivery address. I haven't been contacted yet for a delivery appointment, so I can not say yet whether this is something administrative or whether the car will really be delivered in Zeebrugge. I now expect my car to be delivered in the last week of Q1, maybe even a couple of days earlier.

So you're saying you got two different invoices, with two different invoice numbers (about 1700 apart), for the same purchase?
That IS interesting...
Appreciate following along with your buying experience... Good info... Thank you..

 

[Antares Nebula]

Jerry, I've seen you write that several times, and just curious what you see that leads you to believe that...

And I'll say upfront I'm not going to debate the demand issue, just because I'm not looking to get banned again, but, I am trying to understand what you're seeing that makes you think that... Thank you...

Recent Tesla (TSLA) Noise is 'Just Noise', Selling Every Car They Can Produce - Wolfe Research

There is, how shall we say, an unambiguous ambiguity about demand right now. The truth will be revealed in a couple of weeks.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Okay... I'm not even sure what to say to that, but I'll just leave it there....
Thank you...

If you dont like his response, here's some others

-Vin Q1 registrations.....throughout jan, feb
-2 different fund managers have met with Tesla IR over the past week and said Tesla was selling every car they make
- source carson who has confirmed weekly model 3 battery pack production at 6.5/week and going higher

Simply put, they wouldn't be continuing to register vins for model 3 and making that many 3 battery pacls weekly if they knew incoming orders were weak

 

[oneday]

So you're saying you got two different invoices, with two different invoice numbers (about 1700 apart), for the same purchase?
That IS interesting...
Appreciate following along with your buying experience... Good info... Thank you..

One was for the deposit, the other is his final invoice before he picks up his car. But I’m sure your could make that mean Tesla is actually double counting cars.

 

[EVNow]

On that note I wish model Y was cheaper. I can get a 2 year old Nissan Rogue for low $20s. Almost half the price of Y

Seriously - you want new luxury CUV to cost the same as a 2 yr old Rogue ?

 

[gringotuanis]

Seriously - you want new luxury CUV to cost the same as a 2 yr old Rogue ?

Yes please! Okay okay a new rogue is like $34k I guess I can't complain.

 

[EVNow]

The first thing that comes to mind is "Throw a snowball in the fire and if it doesn't melt..."

However, I believe it will be the same as the tire industry when switching to radial tires. Most of the FUD went away when all the North American car manufacturers made radial tires standard and all but one North American tire manufacturer went broke. However, around forty years later, I still hear FUD that was circulated during the 60s and 70s. So when we see traditional car dealers start to close, that's about the time the FUD will cease for the most part.

OK - that is a long way away.

So, until then, I want Tesla to build assembly lines that can make 3 & Y in any sequence to match production to demand.

 

[jerry33]

Seriously - you want new luxury CUV to cost the same as a 2 yr old Rogue ?

Well, no. Everyone really wants it to cost the same as a ten year old Yugo so they can buy two or three. But everyone also knows that's not going to happen, and the price is fine for the value received.