Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Buckminster]

Really good exclusive article just got released about a Fremont factory visit CleanTechnica performed this month, with a lot of new technical details:

A Look Inside Tesla's Fremont Automotive Factory — #CleanTechnica Exclusive | CleanTechnica

"Tesla’s team installed and commissioned the Model 3 servo press in ~25% less time than the fastest installation Schuler had ever done before. And that was just the starting point."

"Changes like this and more allowed Tesla to increase the rate of the press from 12 strokes per minute to 14 strokes per minute, a 16% improvement. That translates to more throughput from an extremely expensive piece of equipment and less capital required to scale up production. Putting that into context, Tesla can now produce body panels and stampings from the Schuler press at twice the rate as its Model X stamping press line and a mind boggling four times the rate of the older Model S production lines."

"Tesla’s Manufacturing Operating System was built completely in-house and has evolved over time as the company grew. It currently supports nearly all of the company’s manufacturing equipment. The custom-built operating system has allowed Tesla to fine-tune its equipment and processes."​

Impressive: I'm not aware of any car factory in the world with a unified control OS for its equipment.

Most European car manufacturers haven't even managed to unify the car's own platform/OS - let alone the factory equipment which is orders of magnitude more complex and diverse...

And to get a feeling for the capex and installation complexity of a car factory:

"Tesla told us that the Model 3 body line is 90% automated and has over 1,000 robots"​

This is how Tesla now has better panel placement quality than most of the German competitors:

"As the Model 3 bodies are assembled, a team of 47 robots are hard at work at a dozen inline scanning stations that measure 1,900 points in every auto body to ensure that the cars coming off the line meet Tesla’s exacting standards. Take that, panel gaps."​

Impressive! Reading the article is well worth the time, IMHO.

Go to 24 seconds in. 10 or so robots (out of 1000) in 1 shot. Some hanging from the ceiling. No cages, no room for humans to be close whilst in operation. This section is truly alien dreadnought 1.0. Elon has stated massive CAPEX reduction with MY. 1000 robots down to 500 seems doable.
This lineup:

Reminded me of:

 

[printf42]

Regarding GF1 bty cell production, we have an 'outsider' estimate from carsonight which has been consistant since Dec 2018:

• 10 orig. Pana. lines making 300K cells/day @ 18 whr/cell ~ 37.8 MWhr/wk/line
  
• 1 line dedicated TE cell production (diff. chem vs Automotive) ~ 2.0 GWhr/yr
  
• 3 new Pana. lines make 400K cells/day @ 18 whr/cell ~ 50.4 Mwhr/wk/line
  
• that's about 9*37.8 MWhr/wk + 3*50.4 MWhr/wk ~ 491 MWhr/wk Automotive
  
• that's about 25.5 GWhr/yr, plus TE, gives GF1 ann. output of 27.5 GWhr/yr

Two new data points to consider now:

• Panasonic said they plan to increase production to 35 GWhr/yr by 2019Q2
• Elon is chomping at the bit his cigar to get the Tesla Semi into production

So how do we provision all these extra cells? Let's model cell production if those 10 orig. Pana. lines were also upgraded to 400K cells per day output:

(10+3) * 400,000 * 7 * 18 => 655.2 MWhr / wk or 34.1 GWhr / yr​

Indeed, if actual output is just 3% higher (412,000 cells/line/day) that is the promised 35.0 GWhr / yr from just upgrading the existing 13 lines.

So how much spare capacity is that? Let's do the easy case with 12*103K extra cells per day:

• 155 MWhr / wk (enough for 150 long-range Semis (250 Std Rge) per week)
  
• 8.1 GWhr / wk (enough for 7,500 long-range Semis (12,500) per year)

How many Semi tractors could that allow? Let's model the Semi with a 600 KWhr bty pack (300 mile range version). Why? It's 258 miles from Fremont to Sparks, and Tesla will be their own 1st Customer.

View attachment 392350

Note that the 1st remote Megacharger site will be near the halfway point, the State Capital Sacramento, CA. More free marketing?

How many Semi tractors does Tesla need for daily logistics between Sparks and Fremont? Let's go by weight:

• Say that an avg 64KWhr bty pack and 1.5 mtrs plus drive electronis weighs 500 kg (WAG).
• Assume the max shipping wt per load is 20K kg
• then each truck load can deliver approx 40 Model 3s worth of components
• 1,000 Model 3 per day output, that's 25 round trips req'd per day
• now double that for the min No. of tractors required, that's 50
• now double it again to get raw material from Port of SFO to Sparks, that's 100
• and double it again to to allow for vehicle availability (this is BETA!) that's 200
  
• double it again for local logistics (Seat assembly, Lathrop Dist, Port of SFO)
• add 25% for unassigned / spares for special deliveries / surge capabilities
  
• that's about 500 Semis to cover Tesla's California/NV internal logistics

But that's just 2 week's production for Tesla's immediate logistics needs. They will have 12K/yr initial spare capacity which can go to the short-haul market. Yeah, so Tesla could rapidly expand their nationwide customer fleet.

I don't have parameters to estimate long-haul usage, but I suspect that will have to wait until the wide deployment of Megachargers along supported routes. Keep in mind, Supercharger v3 is being deployed this year, and its tech is foundational for the Megacharger network. I further expect Level 4 autonomy will be low hanging fruit via 'platooning' on the Interstate highway system, travelling between Megacharger locations.

So then, back to the 300 mi range (600 KWhr) version of the Semi. How many can Tesla sell to customers? Simple. All of them. 8X production (100,000/yr) is Elon's estimate for market size. The new California incentives alone will make Tesla Semi irresistable to early adopters. The 'S' curve lives!

This is gonna get big, fast. Hold on to yer hats ('n shares).

Cheers!

P.S. No, there will be no 2170 'refresh' for S/X anytime soon.
P.P.S. My guess is Elon wants 'Maxcells' in the new flagship, exclusively to start. How about 435 mi (700 km) range for the high end sedan? And 300 miles recharging in 15 min?

Also note the elevation is very different between GF1 and Fremont, before Model Y ramp up, majority of the shipping would be battery pack and drive train from GF1 to Fremont, which is downhills and don’t require that much energy, if you manage efficiency really well, you probably could coast the whole way down.

The way back from Fremont to GF1, if it’s a empty trailer it might be able to make it without charging as well.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Also note the elevation is very different between GF1 and Fremont, before Model Y ramp up, majority of the shipping would be battery pack and drive train from GF1 to Fremont, which is downhills and don’t require that much energy, if you manage efficiency really well, you probably could coast the whole way down.

The way back from Fremont to GF1, if it’s a empty trailer it might be able to make it without charging as well.

True, but all the weight of those finished products from Sparks must first be shipped to Sparks. If the majority comes from the Port of SFO, then thats uphill with the load.

But as you say, you (mostly) get it back when the mass moves back downhill. Ha, it's like the SFO raw materials movements are a virtual battery for the Tesla Semi's moving the finished goods.

Cool!

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Elon is in a good mood, I like it.

Elon's good moods haven't moved the stock price for over 2 years now.
I'm just saying.

 

[avoigt]

As good as those numbers are, they are actually an undercount.

9,419 Model 3 have been registered just in Norway, Netherlands, and Spain. 6114 Norway, 2708 Netherlands, 597 Spain.


10,477 Teslas have been registered just in Norway, Netherlands, and Spain.

Assuming he’s getting his numbers from eu-EVs.com, which hasn’t updated its Norway numbers in 3 days. Which explains the undercount.

Numbers for all of Europe should be way over 20k.

Correct and I am aware that my numbers posted are rather on the conservative side. eu-EVs.com is my source and they are not updated in the frequency the Norway web page does. But this are great numbers to have as all other countries including large ones like Germany are keeping us in the dark.

However what I heard first hand from DeCs adds to the positive picture. Germany will surprise in my opinion. France I don't know. Those large countries are important to close the gap to 20k but its likely we are even above.

To be conservative with numbers is what why I wrote in one of my tweets but fully okay that you wrote its actually larger.

Other numbers than has been reported to me add to a positive picture.

 

[Fact Checking]

Also note that tomorrow, Mon Apr 1st, is a holiday in California. This could delay the P&D report by a day.

I doubt the significance of these state holidays for private sector employees and companies.

Yeah, according to Glassdoors there are going to be 10 paid Tesla holidays in 2019, which means the 10 federal holidays:

https://www.glassdoor.com/Benefits/Tesla-Paid-Holidays-US-BNFT30_E43129_N1.htm

Federal Holidays
​

April 1 and other California state holidays are not among them.

Also note that two past delivery reports were released on a Sunday (Q3'2016 and Q1'2017), and that the Q4'2018 delivery report was released on 2nd of January, one day after New Year's Day, which was a federal holiday.

So Tesla Legal & Finance Division employees are burning the midnight oil on weekends and on federal holidays as well, and I still expect April 2, 8:30am-9:15am ET (tomorrow, Tuesday, shortly before NASDAQ market open) as the most probable (~80%) release date of the Q1 earnings report, based on the historic pattern.

See all the other "Tesla Q1 2019 Vehicle Production & Deliveries" release date possibilities and estimated probabilities here:

Let's have a look at probable "Tesla Q1 Vehicle Production and Deliveries" report filing dates.

Firstly, here's the Edgar filing track record and timestamps of D&P reports from the past 3 years:

2016/Q1: Filing Date: 2016-04-04 (Mon), Accepted: 2016-04-04 16:57:12 (Mon), Period of Report: 2016-04-04 (Mon)
2016/Q2: Filing Date: 2016-07-05 (Tue), Accepted: 2016-07-05 06:17:10 (Mon), Period of Report: 2016-07-03 (Sun)
2016/Q3: Filing Date: 2016-10-03 (Sun), Accepted: 2016-10-03 16:47:46 (Sun), Period of Report: 2016-10-02 (Sat)
2016/Q4: Filing Date: 2017-01-03 (Tue), Accepted: 2017-01-03 16:25:20 (Tue), Period of Report: 2017-01-03 (Tue)
2017/Q1: Filing Date: 2017-04-03 (Sun), Accepted: 2017-04-03 06:02:22 (Sun), Period of Report: 2017-04-02 (Sat)
2017/Q2: Filing Date: 2017-07-03 (Mon), Accepted: 2017-07-03 15:21:19 (Mon), Period of Report: 2017-07-03 (Mon)
2017/Q3: Filing Date: 2017-10-02 (Mon), Accepted: 2017-10-02 17:19:16 (Mon), Period of Report: 2017-10-02 (Mon)
2017/Q4: Filing Date: 2018-01-03 (Wed), Accepted: 2018-01-03 17:10:27 (Wed), Period of Report: 2018-01-03 (Wed)
2018/Q1: Filing Date: 2018-04-03 (Tue), Accepted: 2018-04-03 09:00:33 (Tue), Period of Report: 2018-04-03 (Tue)
2018/Q2: Filing Date: 2018-07-02 (Mon), Accepted: 2018-07-02 09:04:06 (Mon), Period of Report: 2018-07-02 (Mon)
2018/Q3: Filing Date: 2018-10-02 (Tue), Accepted: 2018-10-02 08:35:28 (Tue), Period of Report: 2018-10-02 (Tue)
2018/Q4: Filing Date: 2019-01-02 (Wed), Accepted: 2019-01-02 08:38:32 (Wed), Period of Report: 2019-01-02 (Wed)

These are the Q1 timestamps only:

2016/Q1: Filing Date: 2016-04-04 (Mon), Accepted: 2016-04-04 16:57:12 (Mon), Period of Report: 2016-04-04 (Mon)
2017/Q1: Filing Date: 2017-04-03 (Sun), Accepted: 2017-04-03 06:02:22 (Sun), Period of Report: 2017-04-02 (Sat)
2018/Q1: Filing Date: 2018-04-03 (Tue), Accepted: 2018-04-03 09:00:33 (Tue), Period of Report: 2018-04-03 (Tue)

From this the historic pattern is:

• Tesla filed on either April 3rd or 4th, and it's weekend-invariant such as in Q1 2017.
• The last 2 years Tesla filed on the 3rd.
• But note that the last 3 quarterly P&D reports are showing a speedup in reporting on the 2nd day of the next month - i.e. 2019 could see a Q1 report date on April 2, Tuesday.
• The timestamps are Eastern Time, and the last 4 reports were filed between 8:30am and 9:15am, just before regular trading begins at 9:30am.
• In earlier years Tesla filed the report after the close of trading, with one exception (Q2'17).

From this my expectation are the following dates and probabilities:

The Q1 deliveries and production report will probably be released on one of the following dates:

• April 2 (Tuesday), before market open, between 8:30am and 9:30am. I'd say the probability is ~80% as this is the latest pattern IMHO.
  
• April 3, before market open on a Thursday. Probability ~20%: this is what they did in 2018, but then sped up their reporting system in the rest of 2018.
• There's tail probabilities of late April 1 release (unlikely due to the 'April's fool' date), or after regular trading on the 2rd, or anytime on the 3rd. Any other dates would set a new precedent.
  
• Note that Wall Street appears to be expecting April 3rd based on the 2018 precedent, so an "early" report released on the 2nd before trading could create stronger price reaction than usual.

I.e. including today there's probably 2 trading days left (March 29 and April 1) before the delivery report is released.

Not advice.

 

[Artful Dodger]

How many Semi tractors could that allow? Let's model the Semi with a 600 KWhr bty pack (300 mile range version). Why? It's 258 miles from Fremont to Sparks, and Tesla will be their own 1st Customer.

You may also wonder, 'how much will Tesla save on the cost of Diesel for moving product from GF1/Sparks to Fremont, CA?

Let's compare Tesla's current daily Diesel expenses to projected Electricity cost:

Diesel Calculator result:
($3.8/gal diesel * (258 mi * 2 rtn * 40 trips/day)) / 7 mpg diesel = $11,205/day

Electricity Calculator result:
($0.07/kwhr * (258 mi * 2 * 40 trips/day)) / 2 kwhr/mi = $722/day

Yeah, that's about $3.87M/yr for diesel, vs. about $250K/yr in electricity, about a $4.6M/yr savings, or over $10/car for each Model 3 made in Fremont. Just in diesel.

That's some good coinage! It'd be even better if carbon pollution wasn't free.

Cheers!

 

[Tslynk67]

One thing I haven't see anyone mention about S/X:

Looking at the data from teslastats.no it appears there are still plenty of 75s being delivered over here. In fact, and this may just be an issue with the website not interpreting model names correctly, I haven't seen a single S/X with the new names yet.

Be aware that this site includes registrations of pre-owned cars too, so that may account for some - it's obvious when you look at the VINs

 

[SPadival]

Really good exclusive article just got released about a Fremont factory visit CleanTechnica performed this month, with a lot of new technical details:

A Look Inside Tesla's Fremont Automotive Factory — #CleanTechnica Exclusive | CleanTechnica

"Tesla’s team installed and commissioned the Model 3 servo press in ~25% less time than the fastest installation Schuler had ever done before. And that was just the starting point."

"Changes like this and more allowed Tesla to increase the rate of the press from 12 strokes per minute to 14 strokes per minute, a 16% improvement. That translates to more throughput from an extremely expensive piece of equipment and less capital required to scale up production. Putting that into context, Tesla can now produce body panels and stampings from the Schuler press at twice the rate as its Model X stamping press line and a mind boggling four times the rate of the older Model S production lines."

"Tesla’s Manufacturing Operating System was built completely in-house and has evolved over time as the company grew. It currently supports nearly all of the company’s manufacturing equipment. The custom-built operating system has allowed Tesla to fine-tune its equipment and processes."​

Impressive: I'm not aware of any car factory in the world with a unified control OS for its equipment.

Most European car manufacturers haven't even managed to unify the car's own platform/OS - let alone the factory equipment which is orders of magnitude more complex and diverse...

And to get a feeling for the capex and installation complexity of a car factory:

"Tesla told us that the Model 3 body line is 90% automated and has over 1,000 robots"​

This is how Tesla now has better panel placement quality than most of the German competitors:

"As the Model 3 bodies are assembled, a team of 47 robots are hard at work at a dozen inline scanning stations that measure 1,900 points in every auto body to ensure that the cars coming off the line meet Tesla’s exacting standards. Take that, panel gaps."​

Impressive! Reading the article is well worth the time, IMHO.

Now I know why @ZachShahan hasnt been posting on this thread

 

[Earlian]

Correct and I am aware that my numbers posted are rather on the conservative side. eu-EVs.com is my source and they are not updated in the frequency the Norway web page does. But this are great numbers to have as all other countries including large ones like Germany are keeping us in the dark.

However what I heard first hand from DeCs adds to the positive picture. Germany will surprise in my opinion. France I don't know. Those large countries are important to close the gap to 20k but its likely we are even above.

To be conservative with numbers is what why I wrote in one of my tweets but fully okay that you wrote its actually larger.

Other numbers than has been reported to me add to a positive picture.

You may be right with the assumption on a German number surprise.

I was @Frankfurt on Thursday. They had all hands on deck for delivering Model 3s and while my black beauty needed service, I got a loaner, because even on Friday everyone would focus to the mission. The Tesla workers are very dedicated delivering every car possible. I love that!

There were rumors about cars per day, but I won’t present, because it is impossible to make a fair guess into a total month.

But a surprise it will be, compared to last month, compared to other ICE deliveries and compared to past total Tesla deliveries in Germany.

Soon we will know.

 

[Bullish_Bear]

And what about Canada? People always forget about Canada... let's add 5k there. So:

20k EU + 20K China + 30k US and Canada = 70k

Easy Peasy! I'm buying calls tomorrow.

Oh, and where can I get a job as an analyst?

although I hope I am wrong, 20k in china is not likely. 15k at most due to the late delivery starting date...

 

[Fact Checking]

Perhaps arrange a live tug of war between the Tesla truck and an F150, F250, F350, F450 (or better yet, all of them simultaneously).

How about loading the Tesla Pickup Truck with 5 tons of cargo to give it some down force, and arrange a tug of war with two diesel heavy trucks:

 

[Toumal]

Tesla Model 3 outsells the Mercedes C-Class, BMW 3 series and the Audi A4 in Europe:
(German language warning )
Tesla Model 3: In Europa häufiger verkauft als 3er, C-Klasse und A4

 

[sundaymorning]

Tesla Model 3 outsells the Mercedes C-Class, BMW 3 series and the Audi A4 in Europe:
(German language warning )
Tesla Model 3: In Europa häufiger verkauft als 3er, C-Klasse und A4

Motorsport-Total.com/Motor1) - In its first full month on the market, the Tesla Model 3 has shot directly into # 1 on the European sales charts in its segment (the segment of so-called premium mid-size sedans).

This is a considerable success for the Californian manufacturer. After all, the Model 3 is known to have only electric drive and not even available in the UK, since right-hand drive variants are not yet available.

The basis for this is the sales figures in the month of February. The data for Europe has just been finalized. Accordingly, Tesla sold in the period mentioned 3,657 copies of Model 3. So it was not only the electric
ADVERTISEMENT

Competition for Renault Zoe, Nissan Leaf, BMW i3 or Hyundai Kona Elektro, but also - and this is the real surprise - the German premium triumvirate for Mercedes C-Class, BMW 3 Series and Audi A4. A slap in the face for the established carmaker, all of which do not offer all-electric versions of their bestsellers.

Felipe Munoz, analyst at market research firm Jato Dynamics, adds that the high demand for the Model 3 is rather unusual. As a rule, this only "after a new car is about four or five months on the road". Conversely, this could mean that Model 3 sales will continue to rise in the coming months.

Munoz says:

"As we already know from the US, Tesla is now also mixing up the European market and how long the impact will be will depend on how quickly the German premium manufacturers and Volvo and JLR can respond to the arrival of the Model 3 and how fast they bring their own, all-electric mid-range cars to market. "

 

[Tslynk67]

The perception about Made In China is wrong, actually China is capable of making anything of the highest quality as well as anywhere on earth.

The real problem is Designed In China, especially product that’s designed in China and for Chinese market only. Those tend to have so so quality to achieve the lowest cost possible, sometimes to the point of being a total waste of resources it consumed to make it.

Chinese for sure have the ambition to export EV to other markets. That’s why they want Tesla to go there. Best case for them is they will have 10 gigafactories and dominate global transportation market for the next 20 years. Worst case is Tesla help train a work force who knows make the real first class EV, then go help their own EV industry grow.

So I think if Tesla decides to export Chinese made cars, it would work out well, people would buy them because they’re designed by Tesla, just like they buy iPhone and MacBooks which are mostly Made in China too. Also, Tesla would get huge Chinese gov support for doing so.

Indeed, pretty much every Apple device is coming from China and the build-quality is exceptional. So it depends on the brand I would say.

 

[Tslynk67]

Tesla Bjorn takes delivery of his Model 3.

Well worth a watch.

Love Bjørn - he's done so much to promote Tesla and was my major source of info back in 2013 when I bought my P85.

He's earned his free cars, for sure.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Well, 2019Q1 is over, and the Bloomberg Model 3 Production Estimate has settled at 79,130 as per their website:

More telling will be what Bloomberg itself does with the recent high-ball estimate of 26.9K for Model S/X production in 2019Q1. That's well outside their 'source' figure, which is actually 21K for S/X in 2019Q1.

The source corrected the Bloomberg author, Tom Randall (@tsrandall) | Twitter, via a reply to his tweet, yet Randall ignored the correction to his estimate. So he is now on his own. He owns the 26.9K S/X production estimate.

Now let's see if Bloomberg tries to engineer a 'miss' for overall Tesla production in 2019Q1.

Watching the watchers...

 

[Fact Checking]

although I hope I am wrong, 20k in china is not likely. 15k at most due to the late delivery starting date...

Well, if we take the China arrival times from @elasalle's ship tracking spreadsheet:

Tesla Carriers​

Here's the arrival date in quarter day (last day of the quarter is day 90):

Glovis Symphony  2019/02/11  42
Morning Cindy    2019/02/22  53
Emerald Ace      2019/02/24  55
Golden Ray       2019/03/01  60
Violet Ace       2019/03/16  75
Glovis Countess  2019/03/23  82
Tosca            2019/03/23  82
Asian King       2019/03/25  84

The first 4 ships to China had 48, 37, 35 and 30 days left from the quarter to deliver their cars.

The final 4 ships were super dicey: 15, 8, 8 and 6 days only from arrival to delivery!!

Hats off to the Tesla China team if they managed to deliver most of those cars.

If the final 4 ships were the 'second half of March' deliveries, and that was 10k cars, and the first ship had only a half load, then that's 2.5k cars per full ship and 1.75k cars for the first ship, i.e. ~19k total cars were sent to China - and that's assuming that only the final 4 ships were left for the last 2 weeks.

If it was the final 5 ships that contained 10k cars then it's 2k per ship and 1k for the first ship, a total of 15k cars were sent to China.

I suspect the Q1 China delivery numbers will be in the 15k-19k range - and those probably include S/X numbers as well.

 

[hobbes]

Tesla Model 3 outsells the Mercedes C-Class, BMW 3 series and the Audi A4 in Europe:
(German language warning )
Tesla Model 3: In Europa häufiger verkauft als 3er, C-Klasse und A4

My guesstimate from what I calculated a bit upthread: In Germany for March, Tesla might be

• Model 3: In Top 10 for all cars sold (not limited to a segment) (February #10 was Audi A4 at 3951)
• In Top 20 brands (Feb #20 was Volvo at 3431)
• Model 3: Top Imported car (Feb #1 was Skoda Octavia at 4293)

Fair chance, the only thing I am not sure about is how much higher overall sales volume will be in March as compared to Feb - that might mean Tesla would have to achieve higher numbers to reach the positions. (Numbers from German magazine "Auto Strassenverkehr" Auto Straßenverkehr – Wikipedia)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Question:

Does anyone believe that Tesla has ability right now to bump the maximum range of the MS by about 10%, without huge re-engineering and re-tooling?

Sure seems like bumping the max MS range to something like 375 miles would provide a nice model differentiator for MS vs M3. Of course it will happens eventually, but wondering whether it might be done now, like in Q2 or Q3 2019?

As I mentioned upthread, I expect +30% with the first generation of 'Maxcells'. This will give Tesla's flagship Model S a 435 mile (700 km) range, and also allow a 300 mi recharge in 15 min with Supercharger v3.

BTW, this last performance metric may unlock an important CARB ZEV credit it the State of California: (I don't know the current status of this credit, anyone?)

https://electrek.co/2016/12/26/tesla-supercharger-v3-zev-credits/

Only thing is, I don't expect an upgrade pack this year. The Maxwell merger isn't in the bag just yet, then it'll take some time to build the 1st production line for the 'Maxcells'.

In the meantime, the competetion still hasn't matched a 2012 Model S, so there's time.

Cheers!