Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[AndyH]

It's not absolutes that matter... how does it compare to past quarters?

S+X numbers are about half of March 2018.
Swedish currency is weak compared to USD. The price cuts will help a lot.

My average purchase price of Tsla has been going down with our currency so it's not all bad.

 

[KarenRei]

S+X numbers are about half of March 2018.
Swedish currency is weak compared to USD. The price cuts will help a lot.

My average purchase price of Tsla has been going down with our currency so it's not all bad.

I don't care about the S+X vs. 3 split; how does the total volume compare? Let's see, I can back-calculate that.. that means that you had about 202 in March 2018... so deliveries were about 5,5x higher than March of 2018? Sounds like they knocked it out of the park. How does it compare to their record quarter in Sweden?

"Back in the day", the S+X vs. 3 split mattered a lot. Today, when only top-end 3s are being shipped to Europe, it's pretty meaningless - Tesla probably averages about the same amount of money from each.

 

[RobStark]

Well worth a watch.

Love Bjørn - he's done so much to promote Tesla and was my major source of info back in 2013 when I bought my P85.

He's earned his free cars, for sure.

Buy 2 get 4 Free.

That is a DEAL!!! lol

 

[AndyH]

I don't care about the S+X vs. 3 split; how does the total volume compare? Let's see, I can back-calculate that.. that means that you had about 202 in March 2018... so deliveries were about 5,5x higher than March of 2018? Sounds like they knocked it out of the park. How does it compare to their record quarter in Sweden?

"Back in the day", the S+X vs. 3 split mattered a lot. Today, when only top-end 3s are being shipped to Europe, it's pretty meaningless - Tesla probably averages about the same amount of money from each.

And Tesla has pre-registered over 425 more M3 that they didn't manage to deliver in March. Good for April!

 

[RobStark]

For Denmark the 2019 Q1 delivery numbers are out:

Month      Jan   Feb   March     Q1
Model S      1      7     12     20
Model 3      2     79    306    387
Model X      2      1      3      6
All Models   5     87    321    413

Bilimp.dk - Vis nyhed

PS. Trying to use CODE mark-up...

PPS. Per the above link, for March the Model 3 came in second in its class:

364 VW Passat
306 Tesla Model 3
207 Mercedes C-class
203 BMW 3
200 Volvo V60
156 Audi A4
132 Skoda Suberb
124 Kia Optima
105 Hyundai Ioniq
100 Ford Mondeo

Ouch...

I wonder if Elon thinks these numbers justify 2 Tesla Danish stores ?

 

[aubreymcfato]

Sorry, I don't know why it didn't paste the image before:

 

[Artful Dodger]

I really think you are barking up the wrong tree here: Bloomberg is a big organization with around 20,000 employees and Tom Randall is one of the good guys, not related to the FUDsters attacking Tesla and Elon.

Don't agree. There is ample evidence of mischief with the Model 3 numbers in 2018Q3 and Q4. Not sure why you insist they haven't retroactively adjusted their 'estimates' to match Tesla's numbers, when there is ample evidence that they did.

Again, @SteveG3 initiated the claim against Bloomberg on the 26.9K S/X prod est. for 2019Q1 so I'll leave it to him to link to the original article.

I taught a senior level stats class for a term at a major Canadian University shortly after I graduated. The number of basic mistakes in the Bloomberg tracker makes it laughably amateurish. But its the deceipt that is of concern, because that is evidence of bad faith reporting.

 

[SPadival]

Debbie downer Troy finally plugs in his estimates at the 11th hour

Here are my estimates for Q1 2019:
Production:
59,000 Model 3
16,800 Model S+X
Total: 75,800
Deliveries:
52,000 Model 3
7,500 Model S
8,300 Model X
Total: 67,800

My last estimate was terrible. After that, I stopped VIN based estimates. All the trickery Tesla is doing with Model 3 VINs, combined with low number of entries made that project too unreliable. I will still add my est to the survey on last day but it's a research-based guess /3

Nate Silver Bronze will be proud of Troy's version of "The Russians did it"

Well worth a watch.

Love Bjørn - he's done so much to promote Tesla and was my major source of info back in 2013 when I bought my P85.

He's earned his free cars, for sure.

You may be interested in his latest offerings

 

[lklundin]

I wonder if Elon thinks these numbers justify 2 Tesla Danish stores ?

I couldn't tell, but the service center in a 3rd, cheaper location should be able to handle the entire country, which is less than half the area of Iceland and with much better roads, making e.g. mobile deliveries trivial.

 

[Tslynk67]

Note that deliveries in Norway continue - everything form here until mid-April we can assume is "in transit" for Q1.

I'm curious why they didn't try to deliver more yesterday - just 3 - maybe it's not allowed and those registered are just from Saturday.

 

[Fact Checking]

the only reason to expect VIN registrations to linearly match production numbers is prior precedent, and that is a weak justification when it matches neither guidance nor other more concrete observations.

Yeah, so there's the problem: Tesla didn't give any Q1 Model 3 production guidance, at all.

They only guided that deliveries are going to be lower due to expanded international logistics:

Deliveries = Production-10k​

But Tesla has issued no guidance for Q1 production levels, whatsoever.

So there's no conflict between guidance and VIN registrations. This is also why the estimates are spread out so widely.

 

[Tslynk67]

I couldn't tell, but the service center in a 3rd, cheaper location should be able to handle the entire country, which is less than half of Iceland and with much better roads.

Århus is already quite central, but there's not a lot of space there, TBH.

I find the low sales a bit odd given that the tax-breaks were reintroduced. I wonder if it's just a matter of people not realising, or perhaps car sales there are very seasonal?

Edit: scrap that, I was wrong, Aarhus is further north than I remember, so quite a trek from København

 

[KarenRei]

I wonder if Elon thinks these numbers justify 2 Tesla Danish stores ?

We'll move more than that in Iceland. Just give us one store / service centre in Reykjavík and 5-7 superchargers to cover the Ring Road

Our incentives are much better than Denmark's. They're more like Norway's.

 

[HG Wells]

I wonder if Elon thinks these numbers justify 2 Tesla Danish stores ?

Well, (being on a diet) those numbers justify splurging and having a Danish for breakfast.

 

[Fact Checking]

Not sure why you insist they haven't retroactively adjusted their 'estimates' to match Tesla's numbers, when there is ample evidence that they did.

I insist on defending Bloomberg here because they haven't adjusted their estimates after the report - they adjusted their Q4 model shortly before the Tesla report (in light of last minute VIN registrations), but not "after" Tesla's numbers were released on January 2.

I believe @tsunamiofhurt (a.k.a. Model3Vins) confirmed this.

There's so few journalists in the mainstream business press reporting about Tesla fairly, let's not alienate the remaining ones with unjust accusations.

 

[KarenRei]

Superchargers have really been taking off these past couple weeks, and particularly these past week (and in particular this past couple days):

Hope it's not just a temporary blip.

 

[mongo]

What's in Savannah, GA?

If I am not mistaken, Elon Musk's plane is there now:

Flight Activity for N628TS (A835AF) on April 1st 2019 (UTC)

(Please let me know if I am mistaken).

Looks like it, title of link matches even if the url does not (threw me off).
Spring break stop for the kids on the way to the launch?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Note that deliveries in Norway continue - everything form here until mid-April we can assume is "in transit" for Q1.

I'm curious why they didn't try to deliver more yesterday - just 3 - maybe it's not allowed and those registered are just from Saturday.

Norway did mostly single digit deliveries on every Sunday in March 2019.

 

[shlokavica22]

Debbie downer Troy finally plugs in his estimates at the 11th hour





Nate Silver Bronze will be proud of Troy's version of "The Russians did it"



You may be interested in his latest offerings

I guess right after rating this post Informative, @Lycanthrope rushed to order one pair of second hand socks (hopefully before they run out of stock)

 

[Fact Checking]

Debbie downer Troy finally plugs in his estimates at the 11th hour





Nate Silver Bronze will be proud of Troy's version of "The Russians did it"



You may be interested in his latest offerings

59k Model 3 production in Q1 is mapping to 4.5k/week - I'd be very surprised if that's the reported production level.