Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[vwman111]

So, call options... Again...

I couldn't resist yesterday and bought 312.5 strike for Friday for $1.85

I see today that someone bought a chunk of 312.5 for $6 - which seem crazy.

If I understand this correctly, if I were able to write a $312.5 call for Friday, lets say for $3, to cover trading fees, then there's no scenario in which I would lose money??

Seems too easy...

I believe you are correct. What you have done is restricted your max gain to $1.15/contract (3-1.85). If you just held the call then your upside is potentially unlimited. If you just sold/wrote the call option without holding a call option or shares (naked call) then your downside is potentially unlimited.

I guess you need to determine if you want to limit your gain. some option traders are in for big gains (lottery) and some like to take more conservative approaches and get guaranteed returns but at a much smaller level and repeat on a weekly basis. It would be very easy to clip $1.15/contract on TSLA on a weekly basis with very little risk.

 

[diatz]

Tesla To Host Autonomy Investor Day
PALO ALTO, Calif., April 03, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla is making significant progress in the development of its autonomous driving software and hardware, including our FSD computer, which is currently in production and which will enable full-self driving via future over-the-air software updates. With a number of very exciting developments coming in the weeks and months ahead, Tesla will host investors on the morning of April 19th at our headquarters in Palo Alto to provide a deep dive into our self-driving technology and road map.

Investors will be able to take test-drives to experience our Autopilot software first-hand, including features and functionality that are under active development. Investors will also hear directly from Elon Musk, as well as VP of Engineering, Stuart Bowers, VP of Hardware Engineering, Pete Bannon, and Sr. Director of AI, Andrej Karpathy.

The event will be webcast. Additional details forthcoming.

Tesla To Host Autonomy Investor Day | Tesla, Inc.

 

[Fact Checking]

Why is there a contradiction? Are we sure they delivered all the cars thlast quarter?

Yes, there was an (unverified) comment supposedly made by Tesla China, that they executed Q1 deliveries "perfectly". To me this suggests they delivered every car they wanted to.

So 8 big ships rated to a capacity of 6,000+ smaller cars (~4,000 Model 3 size cars) going to China and only carrying around 1,000 Model 3's per ship looks contradictory to me. Unless there's some other big California car manufacturer they shared the capacity with, but I don't think so: I believe these Hyundai fleet ships (of which there's over 100 world-wde!) were carrying cars to the U.S. and were going back to China mostly empty most of the time.

So it's all still a big mystery. Hopefully Tesla stops teasing us and will release the report later today!

 

[Tslynk67]

Anton Wrongman posting total crap on SA again, arguing that Tesla Q2 sales in Norway have collapsed based on the first two days of sales in April. Even bears calling him out on his BS.

Tesla And Norway: We Hardly Knew Ya! - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Anybody with a twitter account, please post the below info/link and cc the big Tesla supporters to spread the word. Need to show that SA employs frauds to write their BS smear articles.

"In a significant victory for investors, on September 20, 2004, Manhattan Federal Judge Richard M. Berman ruled that buyers of stock issued by Interspeed, a now-defunct corporation that developed internet DSL technology, could proceed with a class-action lawsuit against UBS Warburg LLC and former UBS Warburg Senior Telecommunications Analyst Anton Wahlman. Co-lead counsel for the Plaintiff Class are Marc I. Gross of Pomerantz Haudek Block Grossman & Gross LLP, and Brian P. Murray of Murray, Frank & Sailer LLP.

The lawsuit alleges, among other matters, that between January 3, 2000 and July 20, 2000, UBS Warburg distributed research reports written by Wahlman that were false and misleading because they maintained a "buy" rating on Interspeed stock while, at the same time, Wahlman was privately sending e-mails to UBS personnel indicating that he believed that Interspeed stock should be shorted. The lawsuit also charges that Wahlman's research reports were false and misleading because Wahlman failed to disclose to the investing public his belief that Interspeed was engaging in "creative accounting."

According to the Complaint, for example, On January 3, 2000, UBS Warburg issued a research report by Wahlman that rated Interspeed a "buy." Just two days later, Wahlman privately e-mailed a member of UBS Warburg's sales force, "(d)on't put people into Interspeed -- very risky." Fifteen minutes later, the recipient of the e-mail responded, asking "so why is (Interspeed) a short?" Wahlman replied, "(j)ust lumpy revenue, some stuffing of channel, creative accounting."

Investors Win Victory Against UBS Warburg in Analyst Research Lawsuit

Done:Lycanthrope on Twitter

Edit: had to redo the Tweet as I made a factual error that Anton had been convicted (thanks @FC)

 

[Fact Checking]

Tesla To Host Autonomy Investor Day
PALO ALTO, Calif., April 03, 2019 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Tesla is making significant progress in the development of its autonomous driving software and hardware, including our FSD computer, which is currently in production and which will enable full-self driving via future over-the-air software updates. With a number of very exciting developments coming in the weeks and months ahead, Tesla will host investors on the morning of April 19th at our headquarters in Palo Alto to provide a deep dive into our self-driving technology and road map.

Investors will be able to take test-drives to experience our Autopilot software first-hand, including features and functionality that are under active development. Investors will also hear directly from Elon Musk, as well as VP of Engineering, Stuart Bowers, VP of Hardware Engineering, Pete Bannon, and Sr. Director of AI, Andrej Karpathy.

The event will be webcast. Additional details forthcoming.

Tesla To Host Autonomy Investor Day | Tesla, Inc.

If any TMC member participates in that event then please make notes and report back what you've seen!

 

[schonelucht]

I hope the delay is caused by Tesla want to add a line to the production & delivery report "...because of better than expected deliveries, preliminary unaudited results indicate Q1 is profitable..."

We are all doing this to ourselves what with all the premature discussion on when the report will come out and trying to read between the tealeaves what it means if it comes out yesterday or today or tomorrow.

Please. The report is not delayed, it's just not dropping at the time most expected by the hive collective here. That's fine. Come back with delays if the report isn't there by next Monday at the earliest. Anything else is self-inflicted agonising over nothing.

 

[SebastianR]

If any TMC member participates in that event then please make notes and report back what you've seen!

Yes please! Paging @ZachShahan...
Also: who will get an in-person invite? And if there is a webcast - is that open for all investors (i.e. us)?

EDIT: BTW, is this Tesla starting to talk to Investors again? Is this a change of course?

 

[Fact Checking]

EDIT: BTW, is this Tesla starting to talk to Investors again? Is this a change of course?

They periodically do.

Now that HW3 with the FSD computer is probably in production for all new cars made they don't have to worry about the Osborne Effect anymore and can give their amazing AutoPilot and FSD progress and plans the attention they deserve!

 

[SebastianR]

They periodically do.

Now that HW3 with the FSD computer is probably in production for all new cars made they don't have to worry about the Osborne Effect anymore and can give their amazing AutoPilot and FSD progress and plans the attention they deserve!

Good point - so this is not really aimed at investors but aimed at the general buying public. But they call it investor's day to get the talking heads on TV talk about this.

If this is correct, then the webcast will be open to everyone and also some bloggers / YouTubers will be invited.

If that's what we will see - I like it a lot

 

[Antares Nebula]

Done:Lycanthrope on Twitter

Edit: had to redo the Tweet as I made a factual error that Anton had been convicted (thanks @FC)

Awesome!!

Good call on the correction. Yeah, you don't want to make false statements. That's why I just post the link and quote the article, but that may be too long for the twitter format.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Yes, very likely the HW 3, new AI chip announcement or centered theme, while discussing, demonstrating Autopilot software advances.

 

[Antares Nebula]

I hope it's not to draw attention away from a potentially bad and anxiously awaited P&D report! I'll take the thumbs down, but I just wanted to put that out there. Tesla knows we are all waiting for that report. Don't mind a good surprise in the meantime, but let's hope both are positive!

 

[Antares Nebula]

We are all doing this to ourselves what with all the premature discussion on when the report will come out and trying to read between the tealeaves what it means if it comes out yesterday or today or tomorrow.

Please. The report is not delayed, it's just not dropping at the time most expected by the hive collective here. That's fine. Come back with delays if the report isn't there by next Monday at the earliest. Anything else is self-inflicted agonising over nothing.

Next Monday?! What!! I don't have enough xanax for that long!!

 

[Antares Nebula]

On the other hand if everything is positive, we're gonna moon. Imagine a great P&D report, the Judge clears Musk, and Autopilot w/ hardware 3 and some amazing features. The stock can reach escape velocity this month itself. Wow, if that happens! And what a contrast that would be to all the craziness in Q1. Can we find redemption folks? We need redemption!! Tell me we shall have it!!!

 

[Mobius484]

I hope it's not to draw attention away from a potentially bad and anxiously awaited P&D report! I'll take the thumbs down, but I just wanted to put that out there. Tesla knows we are all waiting for that report. Don't mind a good surprise in the meantime, but let's hope both are positive!

I think they are just hitting stride here and timing as much good announcements as possible around known dates such as sec hearing and bond payoff, etc...... big money shorts have been planning on killing Tesla on these events. I can imagine as much as Elon says he doesn’t care about short term SP movements, employees and company morale is tied to it. Never ending battle. Model 3 is here in force globally now and feeling good about Tesla energy and solar.
Giant batteries to be built in Oxford after the city wins £20m in green funding — Sky News

Saw this and thought about megapacks.

 

[Mobius484]

These are exciting times. Seat belt secured.

 

[sundaymorning]

New Shanghai Gigafactory progress images:

Tesla's China factory under construction - Global Times

Crazy fast progress. Being ready by the end of May looks possible.

Factory might be ready, but we still need to train employees.

 

[CorneliusXX]

Two comments:

1) Tesla carried more than ~7,000 Model 3 units over from December, so that they could meet U.S. demand in January/February.

2) We don't know whether the CN number of 15k is accurate:

• They had the Model 3 customs delay which was only resolved on March 14:
  • China customs lifts suspension on Tesla Model 3 imports | Reuters
• This probably affected ALL Model 3 units imported into China.

And we know from a leak that they probably delivered 10k units in the final two weeks of the quarter. If they only delivered 1k-2k in the first two weeks of March (mostly S and X), then China Model 3 deliveries might be as low as the 10k that got leaked.

With these corrections your numbers shift by more than 10k units and there's enough units to cover Canada and Mexico.

Now there is one contradiction in this theory: why did they need 8 big ships to carry 10k-12k units to China - that's barely more than 1k units per ship, contrary to Alpha Hat, plain logic and other speculation.

Do you need to add S&X volume to the transportation numbers?

 

[Antares Nebula]

These are exciting times. Seat belt secured.

There are no seatbelts on the BFR. It is equipped with inertial dampeners.

 

[Fact Checking]

Factory might be ready, but we still need to train employees.

Factory building will be ready by end of May most likely.

Still has to be filled with a ~1 km long assembly line(s), sub-assemblies, stamp lines, molding lines, paint shop, etc. - that will take until September, at minimum. Then the slow ramp-up begins.

There's a lot of trained workforce in China (China is making 20m+ cars a year so there's a lot of factory workers with automotive experience, including Chinese assembly plants of high end European carmakers), and Tesla will be a very popular and prestigious place to work at.

I remember reports when Tesla held the job fair in Shanghai that some candidates traveled there on vacation time. Tesla pay was reported to be significantly above industry average and if Tesla keeps equity compensation then that will be an additional incentive - AFAIK the Chinese public currently cannot invest in Tesla directly.