Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Antares Nebula]

Curious whether the P&D report delay is planned or just cause they haven't yet got all the numbers together. If the former, curious what the plan is. It's a day before the SEC case. If the numbers are good, they will get drowned out in short order with the SEC noise. Unless the numbers are bad, then okay, but that doesn't square with Elon's mood on twitter and other ancillary facts.

Or perhaps it's so good, that they are sending a message to the judge a day before the case (that Tesla is on track to do 500k production this year).

One other possibility is that it is pretty good and there is a chance for profit and/or positive cash flow, and they need to crunch some numbers before reporting those preliminary results.

Really hard to figure this one out...

 

[Cherry Wine]

Curious whether the P&D report delay is planned or just cause they haven't yet got all the numbers together. If the former, curious what the plan is. It's a day before the SEC case. If the numbers are good, they will get drowned out in short order with the SEC noise. Unless the numbers are bad, then okay, but that doesn't square with Elon's mood on twitter and other ancillary facts.

Or perhaps it's so good, that they are sending a message to the judge a day before the case (that Tesla is on track to do 500k production this year).

One other possibility is that it is pretty good and there is a chance for profit and/or positive cash flow, and they need to crunch some numbers before reporting those preliminary results.

Really hard to figure this one out...

Anything up through tomorrow morning is right in line with historical trends. I don’t think of it as a “delay” yet.

 

[EVNow]

Unless the numbers are bad,

Unless they are bad and want to bury the news with a Friday after 5 PM PDT release

 

[Xpert]

If Tesla reports really good delivery numbers and very little in transit or inventory (essentially nullifying their earlier warnings), would that be considered misleading? And what about if they say that they are going to report a profit now? Would investors or even shorts have a grievance right, saying that Tesla should have warned them (so that they wouldn't have sold or that they could buy back their shares and/or cover their shorts)? I know it kinda sounds like a silly question, but I'm seriously asking. Anybody with more knowledge on securities law? (Not that I would complain, but just wondering whether others would have a right to.)

You mean the q1 loss warning? I think that was for closing all stores and laying off everyone. That changed to only half stores closing, so less of a hit, and profit might even be possible...change of plan is not misleading.

 

[Zaxxon]

Anything up through tomorrow morning is right in line with historical trends. I don’t think of it as a “delay” yet.

.
This. There is not--yet--any delay.

 

[Antares Nebula]

Anton Wrongman posting total crap on SA again, arguing that Tesla Q2 sales in Norway have collapsed based on the first two days of sales in April. Even bears calling him out on his BS.

Tesla And Norway: We Hardly Knew Ya! - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Anybody with a twitter account, please post the below info/link and cc the big Tesla supporters to spread the word. Need to show that SA employs frauds to write their BS smear articles.

"In a significant victory for investors, on September 20, 2004, Manhattan Federal Judge Richard M. Berman ruled that buyers of stock issued by Interspeed, a now-defunct corporation that developed internet DSL technology, could proceed with a class-action lawsuit against UBS Warburg LLC and former UBS Warburg Senior Telecommunications Analyst Anton Wahlman. Co-lead counsel for the Plaintiff Class are Marc I. Gross of Pomerantz Haudek Block Grossman & Gross LLP, and Brian P. Murray of Murray, Frank & Sailer LLP.

The lawsuit alleges, among other matters, that between January 3, 2000 and July 20, 2000, UBS Warburg distributed research reports written by Wahlman that were false and misleading because they maintained a "buy" rating on Interspeed stock while, at the same time, Wahlman was privately sending e-mails to UBS personnel indicating that he believed that Interspeed stock should be shorted. The lawsuit also charges that Wahlman's research reports were false and misleading because Wahlman failed to disclose to the investing public his belief that Interspeed was engaging in "creative accounting."

According to the Complaint, for example, On January 3, 2000, UBS Warburg issued a research report by Wahlman that rated Interspeed a "buy." Just two days later, Wahlman privately e-mailed a member of UBS Warburg's sales force, "(d)on't put people into Interspeed -- very risky." Fifteen minutes later, the recipient of the e-mail responded, asking "so why is (Interspeed) a short?" Wahlman replied, "(j)ust lumpy revenue, some stuffing of channel, creative accounting."

Investors Win Victory Against UBS Warburg in Analyst Research Lawsuit

 

[shrspeedblade]

Anton Wrongman posting total crap on SA again, arguing that Tesla Q2 sales in Norway have collapsed based on the first two days of sales in April. Even bears calling him out on his BS.

Tesla And Norway: We Hardly Knew Ya! - Tesla, Inc. (NASDAQ:TSLA) | Seeking Alpha

Anybody with a twitter account, please post the below info/link and cc the big Tesla supporters to spread the word. Need to show that SA employs frauds to write their BS smear articles.

"In a significant victory for investors, on September 20, 2004, Manhattan Federal Judge Richard M. Berman ruled that buyers of stock issued by Interspeed, a now-defunct corporation that developed internet DSL technology, could proceed with a class-action lawsuit against UBS Warburg LLC and former UBS Warburg Senior Telecommunications Analyst Anton Wahlman. Co-lead counsel for the Plaintiff Class are Marc I. Gross of Pomerantz Haudek Block Grossman & Gross LLP, and Brian P. Murray of Murray, Frank & Sailer LLP.

The lawsuit alleges, among other matters, that between January 3, 2000 and July 20, 2000, UBS Warburg distributed research reports written by Wahlman that were false and misleading because they maintained a "buy" rating on Interspeed stock while, at the same time, Wahlman was privately sending e-mails to UBS personnel indicating that he believed that Interspeed stock should be shorted. The lawsuit also charges that Wahlman's research reports were false and misleading because Wahlman failed to disclose to the investing public his belief that Interspeed was engaging in "creative accounting."

According to the Complaint, for example, On January 3, 2000, UBS Warburg issued a research report by Wahlman that rated Interspeed a "buy." Just two days later, Wahlman privately e-mailed a member of UBS Warburg's sales force, "(d)on't put people into Interspeed -- very risky." Fifteen minutes later, the recipient of the e-mail responded, asking "so why is (Interspeed) a short?" Wahlman replied, "(j)ust lumpy revenue, some stuffing of channel, creative accounting."

Investors Win Victory Against UBS Warburg in Analyst Research Lawsuit

I saw this a little while ago, although I didn't spend much time with it (not worth it!)

There are times when stuff the bears pull out of their nether regions give me more confidence than anything I read hear, because if you have to resort to easily debunked lies and half truths to support your opinion it's some of the best evidence of all! (works with certain politicians, too)

 

[T@oo]

Never underestimate the bandwidth of a model x loaded with hard drives.

Did the math. Tesla claims 2180 Liters of storage for the X. A 12 TByte SATA drive is about 0.4 liters. So that's a total of 5450 drives and 65400 TByte storage. Take a two hour (and 3000 kg overwight) drive from Munich to Stuttgart and you get about 9TByte/second. Recent development for fiber optics get a max of 1 PBit/s (~125 TByte). So... decent.

Investor relevant? It depends...

 

[Steve m]

Did the math. Tesla claims 2180 Liters of storage for the X. A 12 TByte SATA drive is about 0.4 liters. So that's a total of 5450 drives and 65400 TByte storage. Take a two hour (and 3000 kg overwight) drive from Munich to Stuttgart and you get about 9TByte/second. Recent development for fiber optics get a max of 1 PBit/s (~125 TByte). So... decent.

Investor relevant? It depends...

But it is a secure transfer rather then taking who knows many hops through who knows whos servers.

 

[SwTslaGrl]

You could send control bits in a Model 3

 

[Tslynk67]

So, call options... Again...

I couldn't resist yesterday and bought 312.5 strike for Friday for $1.85

I see today that someone bought a chunk of 312.5 for $6 - which seem crazy.

If I understand this correctly, if I were able to write a $312.5 call for Friday, lets say for $3, to cover trading fees, then there's no scenario in which I would lose money??

Seems too easy...

 

[Antares Nebula]

Did the math. Tesla claims 2180 Liters of storage for the X. A 12 TByte SATA drive is about 0.4 liters. So that's a total of 5450 drives and 65400 TByte storage. Take a two hour (and 3000 kg overwight) drive from Munich to Stuttgart and you get about 9TByte/second. Recent development for fiber optics get a max of 1 PBit/s (~125 TByte). So... decent.

Investor relevant? It depends...

That's why Tesla is introducing the semi. They're going to disrupt the communications industry.

 

[PANN]

I hope the delay is caused by Tesla want to add a line to the production & delivery report "...because of better than expected deliveries, preliminary unaudited results indicate Q1 is profitable..."

 

[mrdoubleb]

Is it just me who thinks it is super funny how InsideEVs is dancing around adding their numbers to the table?

They are one of those sites that claim they are always right on the money about their Tesla delivery predictions, but in reality what they do is publish estimates for the first two months that are impossible to validate. Once Tesla publishes the quartrrly figures they do the math and add in their numbers for the 3rd month, claiming they were super accurate. Neat.

So now they have published ther March estimate yesterday but it was a wide range instead of a specific figure and was not added to the table. I was pretty sure they were waiting, expecting Tesla would reveal the totals yesterday. Knowing Europe to like 95% accuracy by now and Chinese numbers being impossible to validate, they could have just figured out US numbers - like we do - and once again boasted about their super secret method.

 

[Fact Checking]

Let's conservatively take Alhpa Hat Feb number is around 10k. We would have US(11,500+~10,000) + EU(23,000) + CN(15,000) = 59,500 Model 3s from Jan and Feb productions - The total number is already 7,500 cars more than the estimated Model 3 productions in the first two months. Canada and Mexico are not even included in deliveries yet.

Two comments:

1) Tesla carried more than ~7,000 Model 3 units over from December, so that they could meet U.S. demand in January/February.

2) We don't know whether the CN number of 15k is accurate:

• They had the Model 3 customs delay which was only resolved on March 14:
  • China customs lifts suspension on Tesla Model 3 imports | Reuters
• This probably affected ALL Model 3 units imported into China.

And we know from a leak that they probably delivered 10k units in the final two weeks of the quarter. If they only delivered 1k-2k in the first two weeks of March (mostly S and X), then China Model 3 deliveries might be as low as the 10k that got leaked.

With these corrections your numbers shift by more than 10k units and there's enough units to cover Canada and Mexico.

Now there is one contradiction in this theory: why did they need 8 big ships to carry 10k-12k units to China - that's barely more than 1k units per ship, contrary to Alpha Hat, plain logic and other speculation.

 

[Earlian]

Hn

Anyone who gives any credence to Cramer deserves what they get. He is a duplicitous entertainer (aka a clown) whose superficial commentary is often about circular. YMMV.

Anyone who believes, television is more then Entertainment is doomed anyway.

 

[Fact Checking]

New Shanghai Gigafactory progress images:

Tesla's China factory under construction - Global Times

Crazy fast progress. Being ready by the end of May looks possible.

 

[Remus]

Two comments:

1) Tesla carried more than ~7,000 Model 3 units over from December, so that they could meet U.S. demand in January/February.

2) We don't know whether the CN number of 15k is accurate:

• They had the Model 3 customs delay which was only resolved on March 14:
  • China customs lifts suspension on Tesla Model 3 imports | Reuters
• This probably affected ALL Model 3 units imported into China.

And we know from a leak that they probably delivered 10k units in the final two weeks of the quarter. If they only delivered 1k-2k in the first two weeks of March (mostly S and X), then China Model 3 deliveries might be as low as the 10k that got leaked.

With these corrections your numbers shift by more than 10k units and there's enough units to cover Canada and Mexico.

Now there is one contradiction in this theory: why did they need 8 big ships to carry 10k-12k units to China - that's barely more than 1k units per ship, contrary to Alpha Hat, plain logic and other speculation.

Why is there a contradiction? Are we sure they delivered all the cars thlast quarter?

 

[RobStark]

EV Sales: Spain March 2019

 

[Tslynk67]

Wasn’t that long ago there was rumor of Tesla doing a joint venture ( many here throughout it might be with GM) . And KarenRei had a secrete she was telling anyone. Could this be a clue?