There is lot’s of talk about NoA performance on HW2. I think this will be irrelevant shortly.
The new chipset will allow vastly more neurons in the network, vastly larger matrices to solve, and give dramatically improved performance.
What’s neat is that none of us have seen HW3 perform yet.
I don’t expect the investor event to show a polished, fully automated experience. But I believe it will be able to show general handling of stoplights, intersections, and be able to navigate from one place to another (perhaps with some safety driver intervention).
Even if Tesla can do a demo with a few interventions for unusual cases while getting from one end of town to the other, this will show how far along Tesla is. Zero intervention should not be expected or needed at this point. It’s the pace of innovation that matters. Tesla has gotten where they are, from scratch, in just a few short years. That’s amazing.
Tesla already has the system in a deployable package. It’s already on cars being sold. Tesla is collecting or has the potential to collect more data than anyone else.
Tesla’s solution is vision-based and therefore cheaper than LIDAR systems.
If they can even demonstrate that they are roughly on a path to autonomy within a few years, I think the stock will see a big uptick.
Look at what the hugely-valued Waymo has going against it (and I don’t mean to pick on Waymo, their research has obviously pushed the boundaries of autonomous driving):
1. Their system is not packaged for production. Sensors hanging all over the roof. Not reasonably deployable in a production vehicle without significant repackaging and a deal with auto manufacturers.
2. Includes LIDAR, which raises the price of the system.
3. Relies on geofenced, detailed mapping data in a small geographic area which means it doesn’t scale and can only be used in a limited area.
NONE of these problems apply to Tesla. Their system is already packaged and deployed, they avoid the extra cost of LIDAR, and it’s a general solution.
If Tesla can even show that they’re getting close—even if they have to take over a few times during a demo—that will still be worth a lot to the share price, I think.
