Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[neroden]

I wonder if those moaning about the InsideEV's estimates have actually read their article? I suggest they do so...

Tesla Model 3, S & X Sales In U.S. In April 2019

I thought it was a very good report. Tesla US Model 3 deliveries were on the high side of what I considered likely (and I put my numbers down here yesterday, so people can check that). I figured this would be treated by Wall Streeters as a neutral report, and I think it was.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

And a good amount of that 10k is supposed to have been from unrecognized in-transit cars from March

OK, do you actually have evidence this is true? You keep repeating it, but I've seen no actual evidence of any kind that those in transit cars were all/mostly in the US.

 

[neroden]

What I don’t understand is this: the new car I just ordered is a maxed out top of the line P100DL but still $15K cheaper than the 90D that I bought 3 years ago! Why did Tesla lower prices on flagship X and S? The car is so much better now, they should have raised prices! It’s not like people who buy this car are poor! Feels like a tax cut for the super rich.

I do think Tesla finally ran out of buyers with more money than sense. I never could figure out who was buying the superultraloaded Teslas, and was always astonished that people would pay an extra $10,000 for a tenth of a second faster acceleration. Now they're starting to bring it down to more plausible prices where people with a little common sense might spring for it.

 

[mekberg]

I haven't seen this posted yet - apologies if it has.

 

[neroden]

OK, do you actually have evidence this is true? You keep repeating it, but I've seen no actual evidence of any kind that those in transit cars were all/mostly in the US.

In fact, the vast majority of the in transit cars at the end of Q1 were certainly overseas.

 

[jerry33]

Isn't most production delivered the shortest distance near quarter end?

That's what happened last quarter, but Tesla indicated that they were getting away from that kind of delivery.

 

[Remus]

If these estimates are even remotely close, what happened to the “record April” Tesla was claiming? Even if you give benefit of doubt and doubled the total for non-US markets, it’s just ~25k.
These are not bad in itself given the Tesla story. But when compared to talking points by Musk and others at Tesla, those are some typically crappy numbers. This is not how you start a quarter with an estimate of 90-100k. Still can’t get to an average of 5,000/wk model 3’s.

the "record" they said is for "first month of the quarter", not for every month. This number does not blow anything out of the water but they are inline with the "smooth out the delivery wave" action they said they will do.

BTW congratulations @neroden and @KarenRei on the spot on prediction!

 

[Wooloomooloo]

Then you weren't paying attention to all the noise out there, not that I blame you. Every product from Tesla has been called "vaporware" before it was delivered.

I remember a lot of people being skeptical about the timing and the numbers... and they were correct. At the time, they were accused of FUD. I don't think anyone with any serious voice said "The Model 3 won't exist".

To be completely fair, some people thought Tesla would fail completely before the production ramp. Given Elon himself said that was a few weeks from being a reality, you can't chastise those people with a straight face who said it was possible. It wasn't only possible, at one point it was highly probable. 400k reservations saved Tesla. How many Model Y reservations do you think there will be?

 

[MarcusMaximus]

I thought it was a very good report. Tesla US Model 3 deliveries were on the high side of what I considered likely (and I put my numbers down here yesterday, so people can check that). I figured this would be treated by Wall Streeters as a neutral report, and I think it was.

Agreed. Largely what I expected, and doesn't give traders much good information at all, since we know little about what's going on in China and much of Europe.

 

[neroden]

OT

That is why I still place high value on used Tesla’s

FWIW I periodically check used Tesla prices. They're still better than a standard depreciation curve would predict. My 6-year-old Tesla is worth what a normal 5-year-old car of the same initial sticker price should be worth.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Tesla needs to get its website sorted out. They spelled “color” wrong and the interior pic is backwards.

HA! You think that's messed up? You should see the Tesla OZ page!

 

[EVNow]

If these estimates are even remotely close, what happened to the “record April” Tesla was claiming? Even if you give benefit of doubt and doubled the total for non-US markets, it’s just ~25k.

Why do you think 25k is not be a record for April ?

 

[shootformoon]

Um... Tesla did increase the price. Twice.

And they did make SG&A cuts. They should be paying off in Q2.

It's simply not enough. Supposedly, Europe would have larger demand for m3 than US. But by your calculation(iirc), the unit revenue for same trim in Europe is less than US. How does that pricing make sense? Again, the local price should be determined according to the local competition. Due to so much tax treatment etc, the relative price of m3 is much lower in Norway than its competitors compared with other country. That is a classic example of mispricing.

 

[FreqFlyer]

I haven't seen this posted yet - apologies if it has.

When this is finished at the end of the month or beginning of June, it will be a boost to the SP. It will show some real teeth in Tesla's China growth plans

 

[FreqFlyer]

Hmmm, shareholder meeting this summer, Tesla truck debut in summer.............Anyone else think the two may be linked? "One more thing?"

 

[KarenRei]

Isn't most production delivered the shortest distance near quarter end?

No. In the extreme end-of-quarter-rush cycle, nothing happens anywhere early in the quarter, and then there's a huge rush in all markets at the end of the quarter. That is, overseas deliveries feed off of the earlier shipments, while you start shipping domestically instead, so both happen at the same time.

Overseas however is always more vulnerable for delays. Which appears to have been a big problem this quarter. You can see the "inventory in transit" making its way to owners in the Norwegian, Netherlands, and Spanish real-time delivery numbers. There's no new inventory coming in, that's all the scraps from last quarter.

Remember that by contrast, 100% of in-transit M3 inventory at the end of Q4 was domestic.

 

[Matias]

Most of that was because of dropping the 75 kWh battery which previously made up 50% of sales.

And it was the cheapest version, so rising prices further would probably be a bad idea

 

[Prunesquallor]

Hope they have delivery infrastructure ironed out. With only one month of deliveries, UK and Ireland should be able to soak up whatever they can send.

Wonder if Iceland will get June deliveries too... my odometer just hit 750k km today

I calculate you have completed the Ring Road 563 times.

 

[MarcusMaximus]

It's simply not enough. Supposedly, Europe would have larger demand for m3 than US. But by your calculation(iirc), the unit revenue for same trim in Europe is less than US. How does that pricing make sense? Again, the local price should be determined according to the local competition. Due to so much tax treatment etc, the relative price of m3 is much lower in Norway than its competitors compared with other country. That is a classic example of mispricing.

I believe it's been Tesla's stated policy that they try to keep pricing as equal as possible across markets, when possible. Exceptions largely for large tariffs that make equal pricing unfeasible.

 

[Remus]

Tesla needs to get its website sorted out. They spelled “color” wrong and the interior pic is backwards.
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while I appreciate the joke here, it might be too subtle with too many details ;-)