Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[kelevra]

what do you guys think is the main substantial reason for this panic?
maybe something like: we'll have a tradewar -> bad for consumer sentiment, supply chain disruptions, increasing prices -> less demand in economy overall, layoffs, some companies default -> we'll have a recession -> there are not enough Tesla buyers for too long -> Tesla may get another round of funding or two but with weak sales looses pile up -> Tesla will get no further funding -> Tesla is going bankrupt.

Don't want to feed the fud but discuss potential risks i overlocked so far.

Edit: Even in this recession case i believe Tesla will very likely survive and prosper afterwards.(At least as long as Elon can hold everything together, maintain his reputation and use his stake in SpaceX to provide liquidity-> basically as long as he doesn't crumble under the pressure)
Main reason i am invested is autonomous driving btw. As soon as progress is big enough all problems are gone.

Edit 2: Preparing myself to buy more shares and a few leaps. Major drop tomorrow if SP continues to slide today is quite possible.

 

[madodel]

Those 3 have particular concerns - regulation. Over due too. AAPL is actually up a bit.

Until you mentioned AAPL it was up. At 1pm it took a dive. This keeps up I may have to get a job.

 

[ZeApelido]

The panic is due to trust. Then FUD.

When you go from "might squeak out a profit (or a slight loss) to $700 million), institutional investors are pissed.

The great thing, I think, is that that trust can be regained. Thus, to me this is a great buying opportunity.

 

[abasile]

We just did some nibbling at $178 and $179. I don't know what the stock or the overall market is going to do in the short term, but it seems to me that the overly bearish sentiment surrounding TSLA constitutes a great buying opportunity. Even if demand may turn out to be an issue, I feel that Elon will eventually start allowing his team to run some advertising if that's what it takes. Tesla is poised to benefit big time from a worldwide secular shift to EVs and clean energy, having helped initiate that shift.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

It also means that somehow, 44% of Mod3 owners find a way to charge without wiring their garage.

I own my house, but wiring an EVSE is going to take replacing my entire electrical panel (old, no space on it, and it's a fire hazard anyways) so I might as well wait until I get solar installed (hopefully) and I can get the EVSE wired for a fraction of the total cost (since it can all roll up under the federal solar incentive).

My daily driving is such that plugging into an existing 120V outlet when I get home is enough. If I ever find that not to be the case (haven't yet, but maybe I come home and then suddenly must get on the road to somewhere?) I can go to my nearest supercharger which is currently 10~15 minutes away.

For those of us with an 120V outlet available where we park, whose daily commute isn't too long, even if we slowly go down in range over the weekdays if the distance is too far to make up nightly, we can then make up on the weekend, and thus charging at home is practical for many. Plus who knows how many are using an existing dryer outlet when needed if it's conveniently located in the garage.

 

[Brian12345]

How in the hell did that post get through? I’m a brand new poster but have been reading TMC for a few years and I’ve never seen one this bad.

The lower SP is really bringing out the best and brightest on here.

 

[Doggydogworld]

True. But, not with the same risk as regular folks. That transaction you’re referring to was an option exercise.

He bought 25m of the recent stock offering. That was a cash buy at 243 (well, borrowed cash). The option exercise was a separate transaction.

 

[avoigt]

The winner takes it all.... May and June numbers will make Tesla even more ahead of the rest

Irrational Stock Price movements. Institutional Investor do the vast majority of selling of a company that performs with distance best of all.

Completely disconnected form reality.

 

[EinSV]

The winner takes it all.... May and June numbers will make Tesla even more ahead of the rest

Irrational Stock Price movements. Institutional Investor do the vast majority of selling of a company that performs with distance best of all.

Completely disconnected form reality.

View attachment 415113

Would be interesting to convert that chart to revenue -- Model 3 would be even more of an outlier.

 

[kelevra]

Irrational Stock Price movements.

View attachment 415113

@avoigt Hi just saw that you are from germany too. Do you know any possibility to buy the Tesla convertible Bonds? I think those have awesome value as the assets of Tesla are worth far more as the debt in my opinion.

 

[anthonyj]

Tesla going to 0 sell me ur calls

 

[Buckminster]

How many years?

Number of years behind Tesla AV = X+Y+Z
X = Number of years until TSLA hits $1k or FSD gets regulatory approval - decision to commit to copying Tesla
Y = Approx 3 years - time to get h/w to market in quantity
Z = Approx 3 years - FSD dev & approvals

Therefore 6.1 years? (plus or minus..)

Amazing how many new members to the forum are "waiting til $150 to buy".

Yup, everyone knows $99 is more of a "sale" price.

 

[Nocturnal]

Negative thoughts:

I think assessing any high probability of L4/L5 FSD robocars in the next few years is insane, and I really hope Tesla's profitability is not dependent on it. Of course having all the talent and data working on it makes us hopeful, but to get it to the level of robotaxis just has to be seen as unlikely in a valuation model.

I was just talking to a friend who works at Waymo on Lidar problems, and of course you can imagine his opinion. He sees cameras as simply too inconsistent in their ability to perceive objects & distance and all that (vs Lidar of course). I don't think he has experience with how cameras / deep learning will do with lots of real world varied daita, but I just don't think it's a given at this point.

Rather, I am optimistic that Tesla will basically have Autopilot like features on surface streets too, but still require user monitoring. Will this increase the take rate / asking price for FSD option? I would hope so.

I wasn't sure at first, but every industry expert that doesn't work for a Tesla competitor and now Nissan agree with Tesla's approach.

Each Waymo car has 30k in Lidar equipment. That's an insane cost.

 

[Matias]

what does that even mean?

How much that is in terms of football fields per bananas?

 

[kelevra]

Negative thoughts:

I think assessing any high probability of L4/L5 FSD robocars in the next few years is insane

Do you have any concrete reasons to believe that? (Despite many thinking lidar is necessary) Do you watch the recent videos on autopilot on youtube? Progress is really impressive. I like for example the channel Tesla Driver.

The panic is due to trust. Then FUD.

When you go from "might squeak out a profit (or a slight loss) to $700 million), institutional investors are pissed.

Good point. When did Elon say this? I just started watching Tesla more closely again after it was already very clear that the quarter wasn't going to be good.


Edit: Does anyone here have any real concerns and critical substantial points (beyond fud, sentiment and market dynamics) what could be or go wrong? I really want to tripple check before i add more.

 

[sunny-value]

what do you guys think is the main substantial reason for this panic?
maybe something like: we'll have a tradewar -> bad for consumer sentiment, supply chain disruptions, increasing prices -> less demand in economy overall, layoffs, some companies default -> we'll have a recession -> there are not enough Tesla buyers for too long -> Tesla may get another round of funding or two but with weak sales looses pile up -> Tesla will get no further funding -> Tesla is going bankrupt.

Don't want to feed the fud but discuss potential risks i overlocked so far.

Edit: Even in this recession case i believe Tesla will very likely survive and prosper afterwards.(At least as long as Elon can hold everything together, maintain his reputation and use his stake in SpaceX to provide liquidity-> basically as long as he doesn't crumble under the pressure)
Main reason i am invested is autonomous driving btw. As soon as progress is big enough all problems are gone.

Edit 2: Preparing myself to buy more shares and a few leaps. Major drop tomorrow if SP continues to slide today is quite possible.

I've been reading that a lot of people who had sold puts at much higher prices got assigned and this was adding to the selling pressure. Depending on your broker, you might have been able to sell long-dated puts at 225 or 250 many months ago and collect a large premium. Once it dropped below $200 a lot of those puts became very illiquid. Rather than selling the puts many of the buyers exercised them. The sellers these were assigned to now owned tesla stock and got margin calls. So they either had to come up with lots of money or liquidate. Also anyone who owned on margin and bought above $200 and especially $250 is getting margined out of their positions. Eventually once the likes of TRP and Fidelity and all these folks are out, this will leave only the most committed people, who are basically ok with going down with the ship in the worst case and/or have a truly long-term view of their holdings, like 2025 or longer. I don't know exactly where that point is in either time or stock price but at some point just investor selection will dampen the volatility. The one caveat is that Bailey Gifford or Capitol Group may start selling, even committed money managers can be forced to exit by management if they think the fund family reputation will be crushed by something. If that were to happen I think low $100s could happen before earnings. If earnings is not strong forget everything I said, then I have no idea what could happen.

 

[Pras]

Any theory about 176.99 being the low so far? .99 being interesting.

 

[Matias]

Some of us have an encylopedic knowledge of the energy and transportation industries *and* the related markets, a detailed knowledge of the inner workings of Tesla *and* its would-be competitors, and a working knowledge of finance, economics (both macro and micro), the mining industries, and so forth. We can make pretty accurate predictions in the longer term.

hubris
/ˈhjuːbrɪs/
noun

1. excessive pride or self-confidence.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

I wouldnt worry about the SP today. The whole market is in headless-chicken panic mode. Right now Beyond is down 5% alphabet down 6.7%. TSLA actually holding up relatively well. Facebook is down 8% and...
Uber is up slightly...because the stock market is full of absolute flipping maniacs who think that uber will somehow magically make a profit at some point before the heat death of the universe.
People are acting like dorks.
Hold your shares. If you can... this is an insane bargain price to buy.

 

[BioSehnsucht]

Observation: Lot of female trolls recently (last year it was All Boys Club)
Have the Angels of TSLAQ started posting here

Are you sure they're real women and not named chuck?