Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Hock1]

Me either. WTF? Is this the shorts' Alamo or something?

On the bright side, the defenders of the Alamo eventually got slaughtered...so we have that going for us.

For those who, on any given day of stock manipulation, are wondering why TSLA is down, try to understand the following:

1) Market makers (i.e., brokers and hedge funds) are allowed to sell shares that are not identified or borrowed. In other words non-existent shares.
2) They can sell these non-existent shares on downticks.

Think about this way: when you invest in a stock, you want to buy the shares as low as you can get them. When legitimate shorts initiate positions they are trying to sell at the highest price possible. When manipulative shorts initiate positions, they are selling at the LOWEST price they can. This is why the uptick rule was originally implemented, on all short trades---i.e., to protect investors against manipulative shorting.

 

[AMN]

By the end of the week, we seriously might be back below 210. Practically all the gains and progress in the quarter.....wiped in 3 consecutive trading days (fri, mon, yesterday). Just unbelievable.

While theres a good chance Tesla might surprise to the upside for P&D number next week, it's not going to go up 15-20%. Wall st will make sure of that. I doubt we get a 5% move. All the planning and trying to make educated buys, looking for clues on production, etc......means diddly with how Tesla stock gets traded.

Sorry guys for the downer post. It was just disheartening to see how easily it was pushed back down.....for such a ridiculous reason(s) and was especially disappointing to see absolutely zero support. Not a chance of me selling my shares

Everyone should have TSLA in their long-term/retirement portfolio. 98% of retail day traders will lose to market makers. The WS casino will always take your scalp if you try to trade this stock.

 

[replicant]

1) Market makers (i.e., brokers and hedge funds) are allowed to sell shares that are not identified or borrowed. In other words non-existent shares.

Source?

 

[brian45011]

Sorry, I was wondering if the debt maturity date is the same as you see in an ABS securitisation where it is technically an optional redemption date (at the option of the issuer, usually so the assets can be refinanced and relevered) or is it a hard maturity date where the issuer is in default?

In an ABS securitisation the issuer won't be able to access the markets if they don't excercise their "cleanup call" on the optional redemption date as investors will have no faith in how long their money will be unavailable, but they also won't be in default (technically)

Most ($1.2 billion) of the non-recourse debt is in Solar Asset Backed Notes that mature between 2024 and 2048. You can probably find the answer to your question by reading the old SCTY prospectus that are still available on EDGAR. Residential solar that requires administration of the PPAs/Leases and some O&M doesn't seem like an attractive asset base while something like the installations for KIUC and T'au in America Samoa might be, but there is no visibility of how SCTY sliced and diced the securitizations.

 

[MABMAB]

Really tough to go long here

 

[BobbyKings]

Cross post from the Netherlands section:

Model 3 - Afleveringen

Bottom line is that in Amsterdam deliveries surge to 400-500 per day towards the end of Q3, similar numbers for Tilburg (also in the Netherlands).

So numbers mounting up to 500-1000 per day for a nation with a population similar to the state of New York.

Just extrapolate...

 

[brian45011]

Really? You use plainsite as a source? About anything Tesla?

If you have a better free site where the court filings in TSLA related litigation can be accessed, please share it.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Everyone should have TSLA in their long-term/retirement portfolio. 98% of retail day traders will lose to market makers. The WS casino will always take your scalp if you try to trade this stock.

Tesla shares should definitely and always be for long term holding. I think we can all agree that Tesla trades its on way. How you can usually value stocks, when to buy, and how the relationship of stock performance correlates with how the company is doing. That all gets thrown out the window when you're an investor in Tesla.

Buying into Tesla right now, regardless of the length of how long you plan to hold the shares, is acknowledging that the stock action will not correlate to how the company is doing. The stock can and will drop without notice, for reasons that are either non-existent or reasons that a 1st year trader could see through as not important. You're up against a well funded large group that wants to see Tesla's stock collapse. The governing body that is supposed to be a watch dog will not regulate and will in fact hurt your the company you're invested in if given the chance. Shall I keep going?

My post was in no relation to how Tesla as a company has been doing. They've been doing great this quarter. I'd argue that even Q2 was good(especially like the Q2 earnings call). I don't question my investment in Tesla long term at all. Still though, what happened this week(and Friday last week), is just straight up very disheartening to see. The ease at which the stock could get pushed down was surprising for me at this point considering all of the very positive anecdotal things we've seen leading into the end of Q3. I was expecting much more support from smart money here but it's very evident they're content with waiting on the sidelines.

 

[KarenRei]

Cross post from the Netherlands section:

Model 3 - Afleveringen

Bottom line is that in Amsterdam deliveries surge to 400-500 per day towards the end of Q3, similar numbers for Tilburg (also in the Netherlands).

So numbers mounting up to 500-1000 per day for a nation with a population similar to the state of New York.

Just extrapolate...

They're already nearly 400 per day. God I love you, Netherlands!

 

[ggr]

I consider the market action so far today, particularly at about 9:40, to have been a concerted attack by short sellers, with lots of selling and precipitous drops. But they eventually run out of ammunition, and since about 10:10 it looks like TSLA might just have stabilized with lower volume. Mostly following macro market action though.

 

[Cirrus MS100D]

Pretty crazy price action and volume (could see 4mm shares before 11AM?!) today. Looks like some folks were ready to push everybody off the cliff but got hit by a slowly climbing elevator.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Cross post from the Netherlands section:

Model 3 - Afleveringen

Bottom line is that in Amsterdam deliveries surge to 400-500 per day towards the end of Q3, similar numbers for Tilburg (also in the Netherlands).

So numbers mounting up to 500-1000 per day for a nation with a population similar to the state of New York.

Just extrapolate...

That's cray cray for a country that small!

 

[Nexus]

Yes, it was truly impressive. Tesla's as fare as the eye can see. Meanwhile new cars are being unloaded and prepared.

You enter a large tent (Tesla Loves Tents ) in which you are welcomed and your details are taken and some paperwork is done, after which you receive the row number where your vehicle is located.

Every row has another smaller tent ( ) with 4-5 employees that help you locate your car. You can take all the time you need for inspection. Mine was flawless.

Then you drive off, signing off at the last tent (( )) at the exit.

You could have been in and out in 10 minutes. I took it easy and was there for about half an hour.

Luckily it was dry though, it would have been a bit difficult to inspect the paintwork in rain. I brought a drying towel just in case.

 

[MABMAB]

any short sellers today are now at a loss

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

AP 2.5 here, and unless it's a freeway (or very rare errors in the speed posted), mine will only go 5 mph over the limit.
"Speeding" in the police report almost certainly eliminates AP.

That simply isn't true. I can take you on plenty of 4 lane roads which aren't "freeways" that don't restrict me to 5 over. I haven't quite figured out the hard rule for 4+ lane roads which aren't interstates. The only constant I have found is that interstates are never restricted and 2 lane roads always are. Everything in between has been a mixed bag.

As I said earlier, it would be good if someone in that area could go to this location and see if it indeed is restricted to 5 over. That would almost definitively prove that AP was not on (which makes your point valid, but that's a big if we don't know for sure).

I'd say it's an 80% chance that road is indeed restricted, thus AP was not on, but it's not certain. The only way AP was on if this road is restricted is if this is a crowded area with a 45 mph speed limit and the police considered 50 to be speeding. I doubt it though.

 

[SoGA Fan Club]

Most likely human induced, not computer.

Oh, and BTW - unless this car already received V10 with red light support, running the red light on AP would not be a computer error as EVERYONE with AP knows that it doesn't stop for red lights.

So, assuming the car is NOT on V10, it was human error regardless.

 

[brian45011]

IMHO, the risk is only litigation fees and all large companies have them....just bad press and FUD material.
I'm the Accountant and not a lawyer...

I'll defer to the Delaware Court of Chancery to resolve the merits, but don't you think "sunshine is the best disinfectant" for investors to evaluate whether material information was withheld or misrepresented?

There were obvious conflicts of interest and opportunities for self-dealing. Because hindsight is more accurate, sometimes the success or failure of the M&A predisposes the litigation result. If the merger or acquisition turns out poorly, so might the later derivative action.

 

[JusRelax]

Don't LOOK.

I told you not to LOOK.

Dang - I had put in a buy order at $216.83 right before I left for work!

 

[KarenRei]

Yes, it was truly impressive. Tesla's as fare as the eye can see. Meanwhile new cars are being unloaded and prepared.

You enter a large tent (Tesla Loves Tents ) in which you are welcomed and your details are taken and some paperwork is done, after which you receive the row number where your vehicle is located.

Every row has another smaller tent ( ) with 4-5 employees that help you locate your car. You can take all the time you need for inspection. Mine was flawless.

Then you drive off, signing off at the last tent (( )) at the exit.

You could have been in and out in 10 minutes. I took it easy and was there for about half an hour.

Luckily it was dry though, it would have been a bit difficult to inspect the paintwork in rain. I brought a drying towel just in case.

Anyone who takes delivery of their vehicle should tag pictures of it on Twitter with the shorts' favourite hashtags, like #TeslaQualityIssues, #TeslaDeliveryIssues, #TeslaPaintIssues, #Musked, etc, just to mess with their hashtags (which they use to try to scare people off of Teslas). There's also #TeslaSolarIssues for people who get solar, #TeslaServiceIssues for service, #TeslaWarrantyIssues for warranties, etc.

 

[kbM3]

What about battery capacity? GF1 was stated to be up to 28-29GWh/yr as of the last conference call. Let's say 28,5GWh/yr, and an average pack size of 65kWh. With no cell production improvements, that would be enough cell capacity for 109615 TM3 per quarter - more than enough. So that passes a sanity check.

So deliveries and production estimates both seem to reconcile.

Tesla guided for 2-3 GWh for energy this year. They should be at a 3 GWh / year rate by this point, so to be conservative, you should account for that.

Hopefully they’re above 28.5 GWh/ year rate