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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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All other tech stock in the market, imo, are way over valued and can easily be taxed since their business model is based on data collection and reselling-- essentially a brokerage service for data. Tesla is actually making cars, and "missing" deliveries by 477 cars or about 0.5% is not a bad target.

Tesla is poised to be an AI driving company and an energy company, that is not a bad direction to head, since the data brokerage market is played out-- i mean how advertisements do you need to see to buy weather tech floor mats....
 
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/03/jmp-securities-downgrades-tesla-worried-this-may-be-a-demand-issue.html

JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha said in a note on Thursday: “To put it another way, yesterday’s announcement was the first time since covering the stock that we found ourselves wondering whether demand growth for TSLA’s cars might be leveling off.”


So Joseph Osha thinks demand growth for Tesla cars could be 'leveling off'. Apparently he is unaware that the Shanghai gigafactory is about to unleash massive new demand in China, or that Tesla will be introducing the Model Y next year. People pay good money for his research and he has less knowledge than even a casual Tesla observer.
Also ignoring that car sales are down across the board, and on a normalized basis this was a large growth quarter. There are so many variables with Tesla.

Are they limiting production to prepare the lines for model Y?
Are they manufacturing parts for initial ramp up of the China Giga?
Are they cutting on cost by avoiding overtime or weekend deliveries?
Are they limiting model S and X sales by cutting back on lower cost variant? Or people are just waiting for a FUD driven expectation of a refresh.

Hard to measure things so easily when the company is growing and operating near capacity.
 
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So frustrating that in my office I had to explain why Tesla did not miss any estimate. And how Elon’s email was just about having a shot (even from Elon’s ultra optimistic viewpoint). The more frustrating fact is that nobody has read the exact email.

Time and again Electrek has created more harm for Tesla than any good.

I don't blame Electrek in this case.

What I struggle with is a constantly shifting delivery expectation from "analysts". Surely this is something that should be set at the end of the previous quarter and not constantly adapted higher every few days in order to ensure a "miss".

The only important guidance is that from Tesla and in this case the figures were in line with what has been said.

It's nonsense...
 
CNBC: Analyst says for the first time ever he is worried about Tesla demand, downgrades stock

Tesla’s third-quarter deliveries miss may reveal a more worrying trend, according to JMP Securities.

“The delivery data show low single-digit sequential unit growth, and we know of no operational issues that could have prevented TSLA from delivering more vehicles if demand were available,” JMP Securities analyst Joseph Osha said in a note on Thursday. “To put it another way, yesterday’s announcement was the first time since covering the stock that we found ourselves wondering whether demand growth for TSLA’s cars might be leveling off.”

...

But Bernstein’s Toni Sacconaghi disagreed that this was a warning sign for Tesla’s demand, instead pointing to the company’s backlog of orders.

“On net, we see collective demand data points as positive: orders grew sequentially for the 2nd quarter in a row,” Sacconaghi said.
 
This is why statistics are good. They average out those "car burnt with house" cases. Or do Tesla S and X owners have higher rate of house fires than other owners? Additionally we can look up many of these cases in the news and can check where the fire came from.
What statistics are you going to use to "average out" the cars burnt in houses? The statistics you cite have so many confounding factors it isn't funny. Are you just trolling? Or simply lacking an understanding? In case its the latter, just as a rough start, how was the sampling (from the total population of vehicles) done for that report? Some points to consider:

how many ways can vehicles be lost to fire
what are the rates for each
what is the probability for coverage
how does that probability for coverage vary (that is, what is the bias introduced)

just a rough, qualitative pass on the above suggests that there is a bias to those with economic advantage as they are more likely to have insurance coverage and that Tesla vehicles are also significantly biased in that direction. Although there is downward penetration (I have one) the ASP for a model 3 of $50k is instructive -- and the model S and X have an even greater resistance.

It quickly becomes apparent that there are too many confounding factors to make any statements that are both detailed and statistically valid.

If you really want to compare spontaneous combustion of EVs to ICEv then the problem is far more tractable, but there is a lack of information. What we do have, however, from the scant news reports is adequate evidence that ICEv actually do spontaneously combust while parked with the engine off. Not so much for EVs. But don't take my word for it, actually do some research -- I know you can because you dredged up that non sequitor report. Okay, I'll give you a hint: google "bmw spontaneous combustion"

Nah, I can't help myself here's a link: 20 Dangerous Cars With The Highest Risk Of Spontaneous Combustion
 
There are 2013 S owners out there who now prefer their M3. Clearly the refresh/plaid upgrade is needed to differentiate the S and justify the premium.

The X is a weird looking car that needs a full refresh to become more premium ahead of MY release.

These are good problems to have IMO. The newer products are too good.
This is so OT, but whatever. Had a dual motor M3 24hr test drive yesterday. It’s just not nearly as nice overall as my three year old MS. I don’t get why everyone says the 3 is better. It’s just not. The Raven is a far superior car. People just aren’t aware of what a great deal it is.
 
I maybe wrong here but it's not possible to front-run limit orders, so as long as it is a limit order, they do not profit at all (from the trade at least)
They buy ahead of your order, and if the price drops they sell it to you.
In essence your limit buy is their exit price.

Your buy limit gives them a free shot at being long,
And if it fails you are filled.
 
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