Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Southpasfan]

The first iPhone and Android came out within a year of one another.

I have had an eGolf for four years, and I remember shopping at BMW five years ago when they said their EVS were “just around the corner.”

Any major manufacturer can make a prototype or 1000. To make 400,000 EVs requires completely new plants, plus battery supplies which no one but Tesla has. There is no competition and maybe when VW rolls out the id there may be some.

I wish the legacy companies could move faster, but I just can’t see it. They don’t make “new” models every year - the just tweak existing models. And none of them has anything close to a 3, S or X.

 

[Krugerrand]

I’ve opened one eye now. My 10 bagger is ringing the doorbell for the 40th time. Still, the SP has a way to go before I roll over and expose my belly.

No surprises (for me) in terms of Tesla growing their business. They’re doing what they said they’d do. *shrug*

I’m most looking forward to the truck reveal AND watching a certain number of people eat crow when GF4 is up and running in about a year’s time from announcement of location. That’s especially going to make me giggle. About as much as when Tesla became the first OEM in China without a JV partner that so many said couldn’t happen.

I’m expecting a quick sell off at open tomorrow; combination of profit taking and shorting.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

I think the bigger turkey to slay right now are those old gangrene shorts by large interested parties. Basically that 20% float that has been consistently there since tge beginning. Before the 420 fiasco I calculated that tgey will get squeezed if the stock get past $400. So tge VW type squeeze (but slower) will happen there.

That part (20%) may be just hedge of Market Makers on all existing puts they've sold...

 

[Off Shore]

whud eye miss?
that's right, missed nuthin
(didn't sell a share)

There's more serotonin in your bloodstream than there was 24 hours ago, guaranteed.

 

[Remus]

That part (20%) may be just hedge of Market Makers on all existing puts they've sold...

And they have the foresight to sell all those puts without hedging before the ER?

 

[SOULPEDL]

Hey, no questions about shitty service from SAY or on the call... or did I miss any? The silence on this make me think it's under control now. That's encouraging... with increased margins.

Tesla processes are becoming as streamline and efficient as their cars IMO.
Oh ya!

 

[KSilver2000]

Is this accurate:

"Gigafactory Shanghai was built in 10 months and is ready for production, while it was ~65% less expensive (capex per unit of capacity) to build than our Model 3 production system in the US."

The entire GF3 is 65% cheaper than the Model 3 production lines in Fremont? Am I reading this correctly?

Well, it was built in China after all, right?


Going back to Tesla recognizing ~$30 million from autopilot/FSD with ~$500 million still deferred.
To those more knowledgeable with accounting: Is Tesla able to freely decide how much they want to recognize every quarter (within reasonable limits of not going beyond how much of FSD they have pushed out)? Or is Tesla recognizing an amount equal to how much they believe they have actually achieved towards releasing autopilot/FSD features?

 

[M3Rider]

I think they will manage the margins down in China by reinvesting in continuous expansion and possibly speeding up depreciation. With SR+ selling for 45,000 and lower production costs margins should be outrageous, or at least 30%.

Didn’t see much comment on model Y margins. Sound like 30%+ with cost of production approximately equal to the 3, but costs 5000 higher. ARK’s call for 30% margins is looking very well thought out now.

Yeah, why the hell not? Build them 3,5,10 Gigafactories. Invest Chinese money back into China and help the planet.

The Y I'm not sure what you mean by 5K, need to listen to the call. I'm thinking Y margin is higher than 3, but Tesla can lower prices so that 3 margin + Y margin / 2 = 25%. For ex. Y Margin is 28% and 3 margin is 22%.

 

[StealthP3D]

I’m with you there.

Have to keep in mind that we were all exuberant with Q3 ER last year as well, and then the 50% drop started happening in Q4 even with new developments, including autonomy day in April.

Different time periods, different developments and different results. But the same negativity. That hasn't changed.

 

[Remus]

Since it's the time to celebrate let's have some fun.

 

[sundaymorning]

Different brokers have different rules regarding when a margin call gets triggered, but people could be getting them right now, and also early tomorrow before market open. Typically you do not have several days for a margin call. Often, margin calls will be settled automatically, ie. The broker will simply sell stock to satisfy the margin requirements without your involvement. But each broker, each account, is different,

Especially with a stock like Tesla, margin callers will force sell/cover in a heartbeat.

 

[MP3Mike]

Am I doing the math right that if this ~$50 move holds that it increases Elon's networth by ~$1.9 Billion?

 

[sundaymorning]

To: Boss Short

Well Boss what the hell do we do now ?

Sincerely
Chief Editor
Shortsville Times

Reply

From Boss:

I resign effective immediately.

 

[Zhelko Dimic]

And they have the foresight to sell all those puts without hedging before the ER?

You misunderstood me

 

[StealthP3D]

Someone is not happy today.. blocked right away after he lost all of his mom's money joke

That joke has got to hurt! You did know that Spiegel started his fund with big bucks of mommy and daddy, didn't you? Ouch!

 

[skivi]

Is a new all time high next month in the cards after the stellar Earnings report?

 

[StealthP3D]

It’s the beginning of the middle.

I'm pretty sure it's closer to the middle of the beginning.

 

[Causalien]

Is this accurate:

"Gigafactory Shanghai was built in 10 months and is ready for production, while it was ~65% less expensive (capex per unit of capacity) to build than our Model 3 production system in the US."

The entire GF3 is 65% cheaper than the Model 3 production lines in Fremont? Am I reading this correctly?

Gyna.

Excessive stockpiles of raw material.
Excessive availability of skilled labour.
No unions, as in, no american style union.

 

[M3Rider]

View attachment 469381 Since it's the time to celebrate let's have some fun.

Just Wow. Nothin's going to change these guys until they go bankrupt. And even then they'll think it was a random lack of luck and if they could hold out longer, they'd make it.

 

[Remus]

I still like the semi best.
Cause the buying decision is cold hard number crunching. No emotions.

Can't wait for the semi next year!