Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Oveeus]

I bought some Tesla stock when I decided to go ahead with my M3 purchase when it was 18x/share.

Got some more (100 shares) when the stock felt off the cliff after Q2 result.

What's interesting today was that I was about to sell some shares (100) for some profit taking today prior the Q3 result.

Then I got into some errands and just forgot about it until it was just a few min before the Q3 result.

I was like... meh... if it drops again, I'd just try to load some more with the spare cash I have laying around.

Then the rest... as they said, is history.

Ended selling 100shares at 307.9... based on my purchase price of 227, I made enough to buy the FSD with something to spare, which I did!

Thanks Elon and my errands for the free FSD today!

 

[Cosmacelf]

Elon said same price everywhere plus shipping and local taxes.

He never said same margins everywhere.

True. This is the first time Tesla has a full factory outside of the US, which could change his past statements. It is entirely possible, probable even, that it will be cheaper to make a Model 3 in Shanghai than it does in Fremont (Jeez, just typing that makes that statement seem frigging obvious).

Anyways, I expect Tesla will do what any manufacturer would do, and tailor pricing to market demand, and market share considerations, once they approach steady state.

I expect that a Model 3 in China will be sold at a cheaper price than a Model 3 in the US.

The big question, really, is what is the Chinese demand for the Model 3 at a non-tariff price? Can China soak up 150,000 vehicles a year? Will they start exporting from China to neighboring countries? Lots of variables...

 

[StealthP3D]

The way we can get to low 200s is a bad Q1 and a big drop in NASDAQ.

I think at least for a while we are now back in 300 being a significant support level, let alone 255.

How can you have a "bad Q1" without a "negative development in the fundamentals"?

Hint: You can't.

 

[keydiver]

If Tesla does that it won't be able to compete in five years.
Everyone else will be selling similar vehicles for a lower price and Tesla won't be able to maintain volumes. Tesla will have to produce lower cost cars to survive.

LOL! That's like saying Mercedes, Lexus, or Maserati need to be selling a $15,000 car to survive! A car company doesn't need to compete in every segment to be profitable. Besides, why do you think GM and others have abandoned the $15,000 sedan market to the Koreans and Japanese? Because there's no profit in it! IMO, Tesla should continue to focus on the high profit EV vehicles, and let everyone else fight for the scraps. You are also totally ignoring the TCO.

 

[Chickenlittle]

I bought some Tesla stock when I decided to go ahead with my M3 purchase when it was 18x/share.

Got some more (100 shares) when the stock felt off the cliff after Q2 result.

What's interesting today was that I was about to sell some shares (100) for some profit taking today prior the Q3 result.

Then I got into some errands and just forgot about it until it was just a few min before the Q3 result.

I was like... meh... if it drops again, I'd just try to load some more with the spare cash I have laying around.

Then the rest... as they said, is history.

Ended selling 100shares at 307.9... based on my purchase price of 227, I made enough to buy the FSD with something to spare, which I did!

Thanks Elon and my errands for the free FSD today!

In 2013 I did a similar move selling a small part of options to buy my modelS. That car ended up costing me 6 million dollars - missing out on potential gains. I would wait a bit before bragging about your gains

 

[StealthP3D]

The big question, really, is what is the Chinese demand for the Model 3 at a non-tariff price?

It's huge.

Can China soak up 150,000 vehicles a year?

Yes, easily.

Will they start exporting from China to neighboring countries? Lots of variables...

Yes, as soon as they are making so many that they can supply all the Chinese demand.

 

[M3Rider]

Hell, I don't need any more power. I keep the car in sport mode because it feels like ludicrous mode is dangerous. I could use 5% more range! How about a range improvement Elon?

If Tesla does that it won't be able to compete in five years or so. There are advancements in batteries that will drop the price in five years. Heck, just the shear volume of manufacturing will drop the costs for the really big players. If Tesla is selling a million a year and other makers are selling 10 million each, who do you think will be able to drop their manufacturing costs more quickly? That's the fight they are in. Not about making a few hundred million profit this quarter.

Everyone else will be selling similar vehicles for a lower price and Tesla won't be able to maintain volumes. Tesla will have to produce lower cost cars to survive.

Ok, what the crap is this?
Are you another uneducated Putin's troll?

News flash for you: oil is falling out of the fashion and once it's out, Putin is screwed and the whole country is screwed too. Your allegiances are poorly thought out and increase the chances that your country will end up in ruin before it can pick itself up and start over from scratch. Think about this before posting any more of this crap.

 

[Unpilot]

It's huge.



Yes, easily.



Yes, as soon as they are making so many that they can supply all the Chinese demand.

And that is going to be a while....most people woefully underestimate Chinese demand.

 

[Prunesquallor]

LOL! That's like saying Mercedes, Lexus, or Maserati need to be selling a $15,000 car to survive! A car company doesn't need to compete in every segment to be profitable. Besides, why do you think GM and others have abandoned the $15,000 sedan market to the Koreans and Japanese? Because there's no profit in it! IMO, Tesla should continue to focus on the high profit, high tech EV vehicles, and let everyone else fight for the scraps. You are also totally ignoring the TCO.

FTFY

 

[Dutchie]

Did Zach say there was about $500 million in the pipeline as deferred income? With say average price of FSD being $5000 that means that about 100,000 cars bought FSD?

 

[Dutchie]

My average purchase price of TSLA is $293. Finally after months of sweating GREEN again!

 

[sundaymorning]

Ihor is currently more open to a short squeeze in TSLA on Twitter than I've ever seen. Not to say he's making a prediction, but he's definitely more willing to entertain the possibility than in the past.

We have the best selling midsize luxury sedan in the model 3 and the up and coming model y will outsell the S3X combined, if not now, then within 6-12 months. Shorts are screwed regardless, anyone planning on an exit strategy? Not me.

 

[juanmedina]

Someone is not happy today.. blocked right away after he lost all of his mom's money joke

 

[RobStark]

The issue you fail to grasp is that the majors have huge amounts of capital, money and experience building lots and lots of cars. Tesla had to learn how to build EVs, now they are learning how to build mass market cars, something the majors have been doing for a long, long time.

But the real limitation Tesla is facing is they can only come out with one new model every year... if they are lucky. The majors can put into production half a dozen new cars each year if they want to. That's what GM is doing. Tesla will have maybe four or five models in 2022 while the majors will have that many each and more in the pipeline.

The real mass buyers will be swayed to buy EVs when nearly every automaker has them on the lot to test drive and kick tires. I used to think it would be the presence of chargers all over the place that would do the job. But I think it will be more important just to see EVs on the roads and in showrooms. People will figure out they can charge at home.

The majors have very little experience engineering and mass producing electric powertrains.

They can make all the glyders they want but without the powertrains they are *sugar* 'ed.

Toyota established itself as the go to company for hybrids even though Honda beat them to the punch by a few months. Toyota still has an outsized market share in hybrids because people trust Toyota hybrid powertrains.

 

[Singuy]

LOL! That's like saying Mercedes, Lexus, or Maserati need to be selling a $15,000 car to survive! A car company doesn't need to compete in every segment to be profitable. Besides, why do you think GM and others have abandoned the $15,000 sedan market to the Koreans and Japanese? Because there's no profit in it! IMO, Tesla should continue to focus on the high profit EV vehicles, and let everyone else fight for the scraps. You are also totally ignoring the TCO.

Except Mercedes doesn't sell a computer on wheels, nor do they own the gas stations.

If Tesla can sell millions of 20k cars at a small profit but then gets into the service business like renting out fsd with a monthly service or, monatize apps, and say get a Tesla net work online, then profits will skyrocket.

Tesla is also a software company in which other tech companies are notorious for giving away hardware at a loss just to make money from the back end.

 

[adiggs]

That's bull-sugar (cash from operations defines true viability, profitability and growth, and that was healthy in Q3 too with $756m), but they are certainly welcome to short into this rally!

Remember - if TSLA was a good short at $250, it's a great short at $300.

It'll be a steal at $600.

 

[RobStark]

Same price does not make sense. Only if you manufacture in a single place (Fremont). Then you know you can't go below your cost. You have to add shipping, tariffs, etc. No way around it.

Once you start manufacturing locally in another country, you are paying lower wages and these workers can afford less. They cannot buy model 3 if you are paying them 1/2 of what you pay to U.S. workers and the car costs the same. Their buying power is proportional to the wages, so model 3 has to cost less to them, so they can afford it and stop poisoning the planet with ICE burning byproducts crap.

The only thing you have to balance out is that the car is not so cheap that you can export it back to U.S. and sell cheaper than U.S. made car.
I guess all companies do this, but I expect more from Tesla. I expect them to keep prices as low as possible in every region and prevent conditions when shipping cars between continents is profitable. So. Less waste in shipping, cars stay where they are made. Local population can afford them.

Every Model 3 sold reduces CO2 and pollutants, there is no need to sell to a specific person. Tesla can probably sell every Model 3/Y they can make without discount.

There is no reason a Mexican,Romanian, or South African making $70k/year should pay 25% more than a resident of Beijing making over $1M per year. That is complete and total bovine feces if Tesla does that and I expect more from Elon.

If Tesla wants to start giving discounts to employees I am fine with that.

 

[Carl Raymond]

Gimme a T!
Gimme an R!
Gimme an O!
Gimme an L!
Gimme another L!
Whaduzit spell?
Electric Organ!

 

[MC3OZ]

The issue you fail to grasp is that the majors have huge amounts of capital, money and experience building lots and lots of cars. Tesla had to learn how to build EVs, now they are learning how to build mass market cars, something the majors have been doing for a long, long time.

But the real limitation Tesla is facing is they can only come out with one new model every year... if they are lucky. The majors can put into production half a dozen new cars each year if they want to. That's what GM is doing. Tesla will have maybe four or five models in 2022 while the majors will have that many each and more in the pipeline.

The real mass buyers will be swayed to buy EVs when nearly every automaker has them on the lot to test drive and kick tires. I used to think it would be the presence of chargers all over the place that would do the job. But I think it will be more important just to see EVs on the roads and in showrooms. People will figure out they can charge at home.

In terms of shipping EVs in volume, there are only 3 things that matter, batteries, batteries and batteries...

So if a company only has batteries for 200K EVs per year, it doesn't matter how many models they have, in fact having lots of low volume models is a disadvantage.

The reasons Tesla is selling more EVs are 1) they are making more and 2) they are a superior product.
Making more is down to having the batteries end of story....

With every passing day more and more car companies are setting serious about making EVs and making them in volume, more and more fast charges are being installed and a fast charger network can be built quickly..

I don't doubt that some other car makers can ramp up volume, but I also expect Tesla to ramp up volume and have sufficient models to satisfy say 25% of the EV market, one day soon 25% of the EV market is 20% of the new car market, and that is probably more cars than Tesla can make...

So the problem for Tesla and others isn't demand, it is making the batteries... end of story...

 

[ReflexFunds]

I’m with you there.

Have to keep in mind that we were all exuberant with Q3 ER last year as well, and then the 50% drop started happening in Q4 even with new developments, including autonomy day in April.

This year is utterly different.

• Last year Tesla had a huge reservation backlog to convert - This year it doesn’t and has proved steady state demand.
• Last year Tesla had a $7.5k US tax credit - This year it doesn’t.
• Last year Tesla had only released high margin options. Now it has proved it can sell base models at a profit.
• Last year Tesla was years away from having a second operational factory and second mass market vehicle. This year it is on the verge of production in GF3 and of Model Y in Fremont.
• Last year Tesla’s AP3 chip was a dream. This year it is in all new cars.
• Last year in-house cell manufacturing was nowhere to been seen. This year it is it is looking close to production.

You could go on. Huge AP improvements. Supercharger V3. V10. Solar roof imminent. Megapack imminent.

All these hopes and visions have become reality.