Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Chickenlittle]

Good point. I made some crude estimates that places the HW3 board cost somewhere between $100 and $500 - but they only would have to replace the board, none of the other HW components such as the cooling loop (where applicable).

So it's the board cost plus labor cost. I suspect the primary constraint on Tesla is service technician labor availability and throughput, which should put the seasonally best opportunity in Q1. Upgrading even just 100,000 cars will be a major workload to service centers.

I don’t expect a negative effect on earnings with hw3 upgrade costs. I suspect they will take a significant portion of previously unrealized profit from FSD as this would be major goal of that

 

[traxila]

Unfortunately, once again, the shorts and various media have managed to mitigate damage and drive the stock down to mitigate much of the immediate gains after the ER. Seems their pockets are unlimitedly deep. *sigh*

Dan

This stock moved almost 80 points in two trading days. Some retracing was highly probable. Still up almost sixty points. Perspective please.

 

[Dan Detweiler]

This stock moved almost 80 points in two trading days. Some retracing was highly probable. Still up almost sixty points. Perspective please.

Fair enough.

Dan

 

[humbaba]

So November 2019 is almost here. The time depicted in the original blade runner movie. No doubt Elon chose this time to reveal his cybertruck.

But expanding the theme beyond, we are nowhere near having flying cars (aka spinners), the world is still not very split, and feels more normal than the film depicted.

Good or bad, it tells us that Hollywood’s imagination of a future is more extreme / dramatic than how it plays out. Elon is trying to close that gap.

OT, but before market...

Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep by Phillip K. Dick was about what it means to be human and what is reality. I think a critical point in the book is when Decker is out in the middle of nowhere and flips a tortoise over and discovers that it has a serial number. Although one of his better books I still prefer The Three Stigmata of Palmer Eldritch.

Blade Runner is a movie adaptation of Do Androids Dream of Electric Sheep and although it changes the story quite a bit the underlying theme concerning what it means to be human is still present. Because it was a movie there had to be explicit visuals. This was done in support of the story, not as a prediction, and a dystopian theme was chosen. So the fact that it was "more extreme / dramatic" is rather expected. The movie is a drama and this goes with the territory.

Take Firefly as an example: it is patently a space western with no concern for cosmology. Planetary bodies are tightly packed and it isn't even clear what sort of "system" is in place -- that is, it clearly does not take place in anything recognizable as a solar system. It is more of a random dropping of "planets." This is because the "space" aspect is window dressing for it being a "future" setting. The stories told concern the characters and their relationships, also establishing a kind of libertarian mythology ("you can't take the sky from me"). While there is some interaction with the world at large it is kept vaguely menacing ("two by two/hands of blue" and the reavers).

The book 1984 was not written as a prediction of the future, but as a criticism of the present (1948). Here the 'future' setting was used as an excuse for a heavy-handed portrayal of what George Orwell saw in his present.

In all of these cases the future setting is to distance the story from the present for dramatic effect. They can either pick a specific year (2001: A Space Odyssey) or just make a vague statement (Star Wars). Even hard science fiction such as Dragon's Egg is generally about expounding on some idea rather than a prediction (though Robert L. Forward did write Future Magic, an attempt to layout possible future technologies grounded in at least theoretical science).

In short: looking to scifi dramas to predict the future is akin to reading the Brothers Grimm for history.

 

[Unpilot]

Fair enough.

Dan

Nope not fair enough by a long shot. The imbalance of "news" constantly slanted to the negative is hardly fair.
This stock is still a story stock and there are a lot of organization's trying to sh@t on the story.

 

[ReflexFunds]

In short: looking to scifi dramas to predict the future is akin to reading the Brothers Grimm for history.

With one caveat. If Elon likes something about the sci-fi drama in question, he may well try to make it happen.

 

[Unpilot]

My Yahoo page had a sci-fi show on just now. There was a talking chimp.....I think his name was Adam ...J something.

 

[traxila]

Nope not fair enough by a long shot. The imbalance of "news" constantly slanted to the negative is hardly fair.
This stock is still a story stock and there are a lot of organization's trying to sh@t on the story.

I do not believe anyone here thought that the FUD would magically disappear or turn positive. Shorts will never go away. TSLA will be consistently attacked by unscrupulous people with deep pockets and agendas far enough into the future that we may as well call it forever.

The real short term question here is whether the FUD is still getting the same traction, or whether this is standard profit taking after a huge move up in the stock. It is still too early to tell. Based on what I am seeing the trading question is does 300 hold, because if it does then the stock can only go up.

All long term positions are looking great. If this is what you have, I suggest not bothering with the day to day movements of the SP and enjoying life. Tesla just knocked it out of the park. I am more confident of their success than ever and more and more people agree with us every day.

 

[Hock1]

The naked short-selling issue is complex. For obvious reasons, the heavies of Wall Street aren't exactly eager to enlighten everyone as to how they control/manipulate stocks for their own outsized aggrandizement. So, necessarily one has to piece together how they operate. As I have mentioned here many times, the two cornerstones of manipulative short selling are 1) The Madoff Exemption and 2) The removal of the uptick rule, allowing short sales on downticks. Frustratingly, both are "legal". However, stock manipulation is illegal. I think that if one spends the time to fully understand the ramifications of these two "tools" of manipulation, it will be easy to see to envision how it is done.

A good article to give some clarity to this issue:
Madoff’s Crime of Staying Naked Short

This is not an article to be skimmed.

Specifically, I know nothing about a 5-day window for delivery of shorted shares. All stock transaction T+2 settlement. I.e., 2 days for buyer to pony up the cash; 2 days for seller to produce the shares. If, after 2 days, the shares are not delivered, the transaction becomes an FTD.

 

[KarenRei]

Anyone know which Top Gear host this is?

I want to give them some (friendly) feedback on their Taycan vs. Model S race.

 

[mickificki]

My Yahoo page had a sci-fi show on just now. There was a talking chimp.....I think his name was Adam ...J something.

please don’t talk about my cousin that way.

 

[Don TLR]

For those who have smaller funds, I suggest you try your best to earn more money from work, or do extra job in your spare time, Uber/Lyft or something. Every few shares you add now will likely to be worth a Tesla car in a few years.

That’s how I’ve been doing it, got lucky with some funds moved into a Roth when it was in the 180's and have been buying a share or 2 weekly when I can. So now all my accounts are looking good. I'm not market savvy enough to sell and try to get a few more shares so I just accumulate. There are smart people here sharing information and I thank each and everyone of you as I have accumulated hundreds of shares where initially I thought 20 or 50 were good, now I say oh just a few more to make an even 300 and then try 500 as that sounds a lot better

 

[Bet the House]

We are still tracking somewhat closely to the prior year charts after 2018's Q3 earnings. If we follow them again today, we should end up 2%-3% today. I imagine a lot will depend on the Fed at 2pm eastern.

 

[TheTalkingMule]

Bad news guys. Tesla Semi is OVER!

Hyundai fuel cell semi concept makes the Tesla Semi look boring

 

[woodisgood]

Bad news guys. Tesla Semi is OVER!

Hyundai fuel cell semi concept makes the Tesla Semi look boring

But they'll slam the pickup....

 

[AlexS]

look at this chart, looks like market makers are not shorting in few last days, it is all selling by weak longs, should spike during next days

 

[FreqFlyer]

Anyone know which Top Gear host this is?

View attachment 471432

I want to give them some (friendly) feedback on their Taycan vs. Model S race.

Karen, like I stated to you a couple of months ago, there will many, MANY Tesla S and Taycan comparos hitting the auto media and Youtube soon. Pace yourself, you will get carpal tunnel trying to respond to them all.

 

[MP3Mike]

look at this chart, looks like market makers are not shorting in few last days, it is all selling by weak longs, should spike during next days
View attachment 471435

You call greater than 35% shorting "not shorting". Maybe not shorting as much...

 

[LN1_Casey]

It sure is nice of the MM to cause the 330 high to drop right as I'm getting paid. I do appreciate the savings!

Of course, my purchase will be tomorrow, so as luck tends to be the SP will rise until then, and drop after.

 

[Artful Dodger]

So it's the board cost plus labor cost.

Tesla has known since BEFORE the start of FSD chip design that their plan was to replace all nVidia-based autopilot computers on cars who's owners purchased "Full Self Driving".

It would be entirely reasonable for them to reserve a portion of that revenue for the planned FSD Computer replacement, including the labor cost of service. Tesla has good accountants, and even better auditors.

P.S. Mornings SP action (now at $316.78) Headfake?