Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[CarlK]

I kinda don't see why GF4 in Germany is a big deal. It had to be somewhere.

It means Germans wants it to be there. Who would have thought this little Tesla company would mean that much to them.
Tesla's Berlin move reflects Germany's carmaking prowess - minister

 

[Chickenlittle]

We are about 10% away from ATH. Or to put that another way......................

90% of shorts are underwater

Can’t make that conclusion

 

[davecolene0606]

Yeah, if there's one thing I'd love to see Tesla integrate vertically: Tesla should release their own damn news and set the narrative, instead of outsourcing it to the shorts and their media allies!

Trouble is, Tesla info gets read in a monotone by talking head, then they bring in the “equal time” participant who goes on screaming pure speculation, no rebuttal is offered, end of segment...

Talking head says “What do you think..”

Mean while, back at TMC...

Fire Away!

 

[KarenRei]

“The German urban consumer is mentally ready for e-vehicles. The general population is not. The infrastructure absolutely not ready. Germans want no coal plants, no nuclear but also no wind farms. Electricity is just supposed to magically appear... ”

Thankfully that can be arranged. Germany is part of a common European energy market. Germans pay a ton for electricity. It makes it very profitable to sell to them. Also makes rooftop solar more economic.

I feel like the Truck is over engineered and would have trouble hitting volume production like the Model X.

This is so bizarre, the people who do this. Never seen even the remotest hint of what the truck looks like and what features it will offer for what price, but all ready to judge its appearance, market appeal, difficulty to manufacture, etc just from a few vague tweets. What sort of person does this? And can't you just wait literally less than one week?

It's not possible to avoid 100% of vendor problems but there are other ways to deal with it. Musk has made the company financially stronger and a new product delay or two is not going to threaten their very existence in the way it almost did in the past.

People seem to forget that Tesla has already been working on the pickup for ages. This is just the unveiling, not the start of the development programme. They've repeatedly pushed back the unveiling.

Europeans want hatchbacks. With trailer hitches.

Model 3 does have a hitch in Europe.

 

[KarenRei]

BTW, say hello to Tesla's first Supercharger in Kazakhstan (and indeed, central Asia in general)

Can't wait to see that turn into a route from the European Supercharger network, through Ukraine into Russia, to Chelyabinsk (WNW of Nur Sultan), through Kazakhstan, into China, and via Urumqi to the established Supercharger network in the east.

 

[Chickenlittle]

So, how come we're not at $360 in pre-market? Well, macros looking really bad this morning with Nasdaq futures currently down over 0.5%, all the other stocks on my watchist are in the red.

Seems there's more trade uncertainty ongoing plus the FED's Powell will be testifying in Congress later. Hong Kong still a worry. US inflation data due too.

I'd expect a difficult openning, with things easing later in the day.

Some official press report from Tesla on GF3 and 4 would be welcome to help things along.

1. It’s only premarital would wait for open market before expressing disappointment.
2. Wait for release of incentives to do the factory their

 

[davecolene0606]

Yes, the deadline is today apparently:

Trump May Punt on Auto Tariffs as European Carmakers Propose Plan

FRANKFURT — The Trump administration, in a move that could forestall potentially devastating tariffs on foreign automobiles, is in discussions with European carmakers about increasing their investment and employment in the United States

The talks come ahead of a Wednesday deadline for President Trump to decide whether to make good on his threat to impose tariffs on foreign cars and car parts, which his administration has declared a national security threat. Mr. Trump is widely expected to delay the tariffs for several months, because there is little appetite in the administration to move ahead with them now, according to people familiar with the deliberations.

While neither side will call it a deal, the carmakers have worked out an understanding with American officials in an effort to prevent Mr. Trump from imposing the tariffs.

German carmakers have quietly promised big investments in their United States factories, American and European officials said Monday. Foreign carmakers hope that pledges of larger investments in the United States could give Mr. Trump enough bragging rights to delay the tariffs.
​

So this could be a buffer for the Euro auto industry, keep milking profits building ICE vehicles in the US to subsidize the transition of your domestic industry. Once complete, leave US branch high and dry with stranded asset and export domestic vehicles to hungry US consumers competing for the superior EV experience.

Rust belt v2...

Fire Away!

 

[elasalle]

BTW, say hello to Tesla's first Supercharger in Kazakhstan (and indeed, central Asia in general)

View attachment 476475

Can't wait to see that turn into a route from the European Supercharger network, through Ukraine into Russia, to Chelyabinsk, through Kazakhstan (via Nur Sultan), into China, and via Urumqi to the established Supercharger network in the east.

Eventually Turn SilkRoad to EV Road. ...Turkey to Xian(China)

 

[KarenRei]

Look at this TSLA chart.

View attachment 476454


Oh wait, it isn't. It's the AMZN chart between 2005 and 2009. The resemblance is uncanny. We all know what happened in the 10 years since then.



Here's the actual TSLA chart:

View attachment 476456

Stealing this

 

[davecolene0606]

BTW, say hello to Tesla's first Supercharger in Kazakhstan (and indeed, central Asia in general)

View attachment 476475

Can't wait to see that turn into a route from the European Supercharger network, through Ukraine into Russia, to Chelyabinsk (WNW of Nur Sultan), through Kazakhstan, into China, and via Urumqi to the established Supercharger network in the east.

Silk Road v2!

oops, not fast enough

Fire Away!

 

[Fact Checking]

We are about 10% away from ATH. Or to put that another way......................

90% of shorts are underwater

Can’t make that conclusion

Yeah, if we look at the chart that is showing when shorts (as a group) increased their position:

We can state that the average short entry price in that time frame is around ~$250, and that as a group 100% of the shorts are underwater.

Individually, if we assume normal distribution for the shorts, probably more than 95% of them are underwater.

On even longer time frames, since 2016, TSLA shorts are underwater by about 6 billion dollars, as a group, according to S3 Partners data.

 

[heltok]

BTW, say hello to Tesla's first Supercharger in Kazakhstan (and indeed, central Asia in general)

View attachment 476475

Can't wait to see that turn into a route from the European Supercharger network, through Ukraine into Russia, to Chelyabinsk, through Kazakhstan (via Nur Sultan), into China, and via Urumqi to the established Supercharger network in the east.

Think many people in the west are pretty clueless to the level of development is some parts of Kazakhstan, for example Nur Sultan.

Check out some images of that place, it is not just like it’s was portrayed in Borat:
https://www.google.se/search?q=nur+sultan

Pretty futuristic city imo

 

[Dan Detweiler]

Thankfully that can be arranged. Germany is part of a common European energy market. Germans pay a ton for electricity. It makes it very profitable to sell to them. Also makes rooftop solar more economic.



This is so bizarre, the people who do this. Never seen even the remotest hint of what the truck looks like and what features it will offer for what price, but all ready to judge its appearance, market appeal, difficulty to manufacture, etc just from a few vague tweets. What sort of person does this? And can't you just wait literally less than one week?



People seem to forget that Tesla has already been working on the pickup for ages. This is just the unveiling, not the start of the development programme. They've repeatedly pushed back the unveiling.



Model 3 does have a hitch in Europe.

As always, our voice of reason from the frozen netherworld rings forth with the truth. Love it! Well said

Dan

 

[samppa]

BTW, say hello to Tesla's first Supercharger in Kazakhstan (and indeed, central Asia in general)

View attachment 476475

Can't wait to see that turn into a route from the European Supercharger network, through Ukraine into Russia, to Chelyabinsk (WNW of Nur Sultan), through Kazakhstan, into China, and via Urumqi to the established Supercharger network in the east.

I'm not so sure there are even such roads there.. I've gone with train from moscow to irkutsk and there really isn't much that you couod call a road.

 

[Chickenlittle]

That is indeed the lesson. When you scroll through the AMZN chart of the last 10 years, there are a lot of dips that could have forced longs to cash out, and probably did. The lesson is not to despair when you believe in the future of a company, as the stock will recover from those dips.

Can’t make rules like this. The money I took out of amazon performed a lot better than my amzn shares would have when I invested in tsla options. It’s always a decision on where to invest a finite amount of money. You could be wrong of course but buy and hold is not always the best strategy. Try to convince the winning holder of a lofty ticket that their buying a lottery ticket is a terrible investment

 

[LN1_Casey]

BTW, say hello to Tesla's first Supercharger in Kazakhstan (and indeed, central Asia in general)

View attachment 476475

Can't wait to see that turn into a route from the European Supercharger network, through Ukraine into Russia, to Chelyabinsk (WNW of Nur Sultan), through Kazakhstan, into China, and via Urumqi to the established Supercharger network in the east.

Those countries that are a part of the EU, and abut those red/blue markers, but are a dearth of any, need to step the Ford up.

(Looking at you in particular, Greece. If any country could benefit from EVs, Solar power and power walls, you're one of them.)

 

[mongo]

This is so bizarre, the people who do this. Never seen even the remotest hint of what the truck looks like and what features it will offer for what price, but all ready to judge its appearance, market appeal, difficulty to manufacture, etc just from a few vague tweets. What sort of person does this? And can't you just wait literally less than one week?

Saying the truck reveal is less than a week away is as literally correct as saying Tesla delivering Model 3s to Iceland in this quarter.
Today is the 13th, reveal is the 21st, that's more than 7.
It is literally next week though.
(Sorry, I'm impatient. Agree on the can't say squat about what it is part)

Europeans want hatchbacks. With trailer hitches.

Model 3 does have a hitch in Europe.

But it is not a hatchback (the primary feature mentioned and differentiator from the 3)

 

[Wnuk]

Failed attempt at humor

 

[Mokuzai]

Article came up on my TSLA feed this morning with the headline:
REX Shares Rolls Out A New ETN For FAANG Fans

Wondering what that had to do with TSLA I clicked into it and found the following interesting bit:

FANG+ is defined as Facebook, Amazon, Apple, Netflix, Alphabet, Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA), Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), Alibaba (NYSE: BABA) and Baidu (NASDAQ: BIDU). The new FNGS will have weights of 10% to each of those names.

 

[ZeApelido]

That's not old growth forest though - it's mostly ~50 year old pine trees in that area, actively forested AFAIK. Brandenburg is full of forests: 37% of the land area, or over 1 million hectares are forests, and the general area Tesla picked is 80% forests.

Tesla's plot is probably around a hundred hectares (one million square meters) - or 0.01% of the forest area in Brandenburg, while 6,500 jobs is an increase of +0.8% for the number of active jobs in the state of Brandenburg.

This is an area that needs jobs - if this project is supported by the state government I doubt it's going to be a problem - checking the natural protection status of that plot was probably among the first things they checked.

Wait a second I'm having Swedish word flashbacks... Doesn't "Brand" mean "fire" in germanic languages?

Please tell me "Branden" means something different!