Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Johan]

Sooooo... boys and girls. With Tesla and Elon never a boring day. Unfortunately was unable to watch the reveal live (sleep is important) but holy moly that was something else. My initialt thought was naturally that both the truck and the quad are designed for Mars use, but might be very useful on Earth as well. I'm torn and time will tell, I'm thinking likely time will tell that this is a misstep at the current time back here in the real world. It seems Tesla's core mission - to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible - is being highjacked by Elon's obvious goal of colonizing Mars (SpaceX, Solar, the Boring company are already blatantly in service of this mission).

This was Elon's own quote on the Model X at the reveal of that vehicle: "I think we got a little carried away." and then during the earnings call: "The mistake we made with the Model X, which I really think we have taken to heart at Tesla, is that we put too many new features and technologies, too many great things all at once into a product. In retrospect, it would have been a better decision to do fewer things with the first version of the Model X and then roll in capabilities, and features, and new technologies over time, in subsequent years," Musk said. "So I do think there is some hubris there with the X."

Well thankfully, no sign of hubris here... right..?

 

[UncaNed]

So Tesla exposed the pre-order count via the order numbers?

Interesting and possibly intentional leak.

If true they'll have to increase the 50,000/year production capacity target ...

Doesn't look like there'll really be any short range affordable models shipped for a very long time.

 

[jerry33]

Color choices or is it metallic only?

We won't know for a while, but if there is a colour choice it will be anodized, not painted.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Here's the smuggler's compartment:

 

[UncaNed]

Also, the model Y is now a 2.5k deposit. Wasn't it also dropped to $100 not too long ago?

Probably they realized how useless a $100 deposit is and need a more useful measure of actual future model Y orders.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Doesn't look like there'll really be any short range affordable models shipped for a very long time.

The opposite. The first 2 variants to ship will be the cheaper ones (late 2021) then the most expensive 'Plaid' trucks coming last (late 2022).

 

[jerry33]

The flat panels are necessary to get the bulletproof exterior and glass. Also, ignore the demo effect..

Also the angles enhance the stealth aspect.

 

[Fact Checking]

I believe 200,000 is incorrect. That post on twitter was over 4 hours ago. Currently I am at 77,524 with highest being RN112822916 posted 8 minutes ago on twitter.

Cybertruck pre-orders are now above 80k. Which is the lowest order number you've been able to find? Saw one reported at around RN-112,745,000, but that was 5 minutes into the ordering process, so the real lowest order ID is probably even lower?

 

[Dagger]

Cybertruck pre-orders are now above 80k. Which is the lowest order number you've been able to find? Saw one reported at around RN-112,745,000, but that was 5 minutes into the ordering process, so the real lowest order ID is probably even lower?

Lowest I have seen is RN112745392 from here japheth hardy on Twitter

 

[jerry33]

Musk seriously needs to bring in some new designers with some fresh ideas. There were 10 trucks on the internet that would have sold 20 times as many as this truck - and for an actual profit. There's no way they're making any money on a $70k truck that gets 500 miles of range. Just not possible.

And it's not possible to land a rocket on a barge. Sheesh!

 

[Fact Checking]

If Tesla can crack 100,000+ orders overnight, I think it would benefit them to say so to curb sideline/lazy analyst worries and/or to combat the coming spooled media narrative queuing up to spam throughout the entire day.

I'm pretty sure they'll be able to hit 100,000+ orders overnight: they were already above 80,000 when I ordered about 20 minutes ago, and on the east coast it was pretty late already during the unveil.

Edit: as others pointed out the Chinese reservation numbers are separate - so we won't know the order numbers until someone figures out the ranges and sums them up globally.

 

[jerry33]

The main questions to ask are, how are they getting battery prices this low? Do they have the worlds largest battery factory in their back pocket?

Does the exoskeleton and stainless steel design mean easier or harder production? ( this is rhetorical, since at that price point, it has to be easier and cheaper)

1. Wait for battery day.
2. At the very least it will be quicker because of the elimination of the paint process. Flat sheets are easier to stamp accurately and I'm guessing that they also wear the dies less.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Sooooo... boys and girls. With Tesla and Elon never a boring day. Unfortunately was unable to watch the reveal live (sleep is important) but holy moly that was something else. My initialt thought was naturally that both the truck and the quad are designed for Mars use, but might be very useful on Earth as well. I'm torn and time will tell, I'm thinking likely time will tell that this is a misstep at the current time back here in the real world. It seems Tesla's core mission - to accelerate the advent of sustainable transport by bringing compelling mass market electric cars to market as soon as possible - is being highjacked by Elon's obvious goal of colonizing Mars (SpaceX, Solar, the Boring company are already blatantly in service of this mission).

This was Elon's own quote on the Model X at the reveal of that vehicle: "I think we got a little carried away." and then during the earnings call: "The mistake we made with the Model X, which I really think we have taken to heart at Tesla, is that we put too many new features and technologies, too many great things all at once into a product. In retrospect, it would have been a better decision to do fewer things with the first version of the Model X and then roll in capabilities, and features, and new technologies over time, in subsequent years," Musk said. "So I do think there is some hubris there with the X."

Well thankfully, no sign of hubris here... right..?

In the case of Model X the hubris was the technical complexity (which caused delays and extra costs). Cybertruck will be the opposite: technical simplicity. I don’t see any hubris, unless you are referring to the polarizing form factor.

 

[skivi]

I'm pretty sure they'll be able to hit 100,000+ orders overnight: they were already above 80,000 when I ordered about 20 minutes ago, and on the east coast it was pretty late already during the unveil.

Where do you see the order numbers or how is your math? I don't get it.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

I'm pretty sure they'll be able to hit 100,000+ orders overnight: they were already above 80,000 when I ordered about 20 minutes ago, and on the east coast it was pretty late already during the unveil.

Did you place your order in Europe? Are they using the same reservation number range as North America?

 

[Johan]

In the case of Model X the hubris was the technical complexity (which caused delays and extra costs). Cybertruck will be the opposite: technical simplicity. I don’t see any hubris, unless you are referring to the polarizing form factor.

You're right that engineering wise the CT seems like a slam dunk, the price point is super attractive, the functionality is top notch etc. The hubris I'm implying comes from too much "head in the clouds". But it could be me being close-minded. With this design they're really trying to do a big leap forward in time instead of baby steps, and you could argue that even if the truck only claims a small portion of the truck market as long as they sell what they can make (we all know the term production constrained as opposed to demand constrained) it really moves the Overton window when it comes to the public's idea of what a car is and can look like in 2020.

 

[davecolene0606]

Did they fix the glass for the test rides ?

Yes video of a couple of Techs walking with the glass out there changing it.

Fire Away!

 

[Christine69420]

I LOVE the Cybertrk!

Too bad that I don't need it. Anyone know how long/wide it is? Compared to my TMX? The TMX is already pretty big in tiny Norwegian parking lots. If only I lived on a farm...

When seeing this post I suddenly thought the Ford looked soo dated and old.

Do we have confirmation this is not a North American exclusive vehicle?

And will be sold in China,Europe and Australia too?

The Tesla site in Norway will let you order a TCT / Cybertruck.

 

[Tslynk67]

Christopher Dungeon on Twitter

"
If my
@Tesla
#Cybertruck order numbers are correct, the internet just pre-ordered... 200,000 trucks tonight

"

Anyone have an idea of latest order # posted?

So the burning question is whether Tesla order numbers are sequential...??

 

[Fact Checking]

Did you place your order in Europe? Are they using the same reservation number range as North America?

Yes, and apparently there's a global reservation numbers range, judging by the various numbers posted here and on Twitter.

But I could be wrong...