Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MXWing]

Cybertruck will be available in matte black

Elon Musk on Twitter

Every Tesla has to come in matte black. Would save me thousands and sell thousands more cars.

Sentiment would have been better for certain. Stealth fighters wouldn’t look as good in whirlpool silver color.

 

[RobStark]

Red state or blue state, it comes down to sales. Tesla has sold over 100,000 reservations now. How many of those were potential Ford or GM owners of Red States? All it takes is one Tesla in your town and the buzz will ignite.

And how many are from 5 reservations from a single member of this board?

 

[Tslynk67]

Screw it, going to order one!

Anyone else going to do the same? If so, PM me and we can synch out order timing and see if there’s any correspondence in the RNs

 

[Pras]

My reservation at 8:45 pm. RN112891xxx.

Close to 150k.

Probably a lot of duplicates and multiple reservations. Still impressive - esp given the controversial looks. To me the design is a bit disappointing-didn’t expect it to be so plain. But the price is the killer. GM/Ford R.I.P.

I guess so. I ordered two but in the first I forgot to add FSD so will keep only 1. At this point I am torn between Y and the Truck. I would have never even considered a truck until this came. In the end my 2 reservation should be counted as half.

 

[Fact Checking]

I'm saddened that the engineering concepts and advantages of this design fly right over the head of most people who simply don't like the "look" and there's a reason for that. It's the same reason I thought it looked atrocious when it was first revealed. I didn't understand it instantly. Elon had to tell me about the exoskeleton and I had to mull over the structural implications before the design started to make sense in my mind. And as the pieces of the puzzle started clicking into place and the implications revealed their advantages, I began to have more and more "aha" moments. As I studied it from different angles and intuitively began to understand the reasons behind the design and how this all translated to a superior vehicle I began to be blown away. And the design started to actually have a visual beauty to it. In other words, it is necessary to understand how superior it is to see the beauty inherent.

Some people will never get beyond the superficial qualities of the design of a car. And those people will never find the Cybertruck beautiful. T

BTW., I think that many, many ordinary folks who know nothing and want to know nothing about industrial processes will like and embrace the Cybertruck design as well.

The design is so shocking primarily because it's so unusual from established car design patterns - and all unusual designs are shocking at first sight. There's very few forms that haven't been tried before, and anything fundamentally different, pretty much by definition, will look "shocking".

Here's a quick experiment to demonstrate this effect. Take a good look at the following mosaic of Hobbit homes:

Click on the image, zoom in and out, take a minute to look at each home in detail; imagine living there with your family in peace and prosperity.

Now click on the following spoiler link and take a first look at your new home you will be living in from now on until the end of your life:

Spoiler: Your New Home

Coming from those round homes this looks almost threatening at first sight: stark angles, glass and stone, dark contrasts - and if all you've seen in your whole life were round homes you'd find it particularly ugly and couldn't imagine living in it.

Yet these kinds of minimalist homes with dark exterior are extremely fashionable in colder climates, and they score some of the highest prices on the real-estate market.

Once you light a few lights they look a lot more welcoming:

Spoiler: Your New Home

In general taste and fashion can be influenced to a great extent, and I think Franz did a great job bringing out the best qualities of this form factor in a minimalist Cybertruck design.

I believe they might have made a conscious decision to present it side on first, instead of the more advantageous front-first approach: a shock therapy before people warm up to the form factor and are drawn in the by the minimalist design. IMO there's a good chance that in a few decades books will be written about this episode. (By benevolent AIs. )

In addition to this, another factor is that IMO the Cybertruck will actually win the "hearts and minds" of many blue-collar truck owners: the Cybertruck is a stark departure from the looks-oriented, fragile car designs of coastal folks and are a tip of the hat to the practicality and "get the job done" focused attitude of blue collar truck users.

What a way to gentrify Mordor ...

 

[Pras]

Someone posted on Twitter that now the lineup can be read as SEXY CARS.

Cybertruck
Atv
Roadster
Semi

 

[LN1_Casey]

And the vast majority still won't be buying $40k plus pickups.

No, but the 20 year olds who followed him in the early 2012's and couldn't afford the Roadster or Model S can.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Screw it, going to order one!

Anyone else going to do the same? If so, PM me and we can synch out order timing and see if there’s any correspondence in the RNs

I'll go with this experience. I don't want one in any shape of the word, but I'll coordinate a time to toss a $100 reservation to test this theory.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

Even if they never make, or sell a single cybertrucks (and they WILL and they will sell tens of thousands at least), this is the only time in my entire life that the announcement of a new pickup truck got to the front page of the BBC News. Nobody buys pickup trucks in the UK: NOBODY, and yet in the middle of a GENERAL ELECTION news cycle, someone revealing a new pickup truck is a major headline.

Say what you want about the product, but in terms of getting free ad-impressions for the name Tesla, this was worth tens of millions, maybe more. Maybe a lot, lot more.

Plus...this is going to be one of those products they stick in the galleries and showrooms. kids drag parents in to gawp at the truck and take instagram pics with it. meanwhile mum&dad get their first up-close with the model Y next to it...

 

[Heimdallr]

2-3% recovery on Monday likely? -6% is such an overreaction to an unusual pickup truck, which was A) described as such beforehand and B) will probably prove to be extremely popular

 

[SpaceCash]

2-3% recovery on Monday likely? -6% is such an overreaction to an unusual pickup truck, which was A) described as such beforehand and B) will probably prove to be extremely popular

extremely likely.
SAF was overplaying their hand shorting today. They now know they F'd up and we're going up all next week

 

[waterloo42]

Good overall write up on initial reaction and the eventual implications of Cybertruck at Forbes:

Elon Musk Reveals The Radical Tesla ‘Cybertruck’ Electric Pickup At A Bizarre, Glitch-Filled Event

 

[LN1_Casey]

Chose the AWD 2 motor configuration, since if I was to get the truck, I'd get this version. FSD of course. May keep the reservation for a bit.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'll go with this experience. I don't want one in any shape of the word, but I'll coordinate a time to toss a $100 reservation to test this theory.

OK, folks - we coordinated our order confirmations and I got RN112900312

I'm not doing this as a stunt, when I read that this beast is not as wide as the Model X I realise I had to have one. I'm not even worried whether it fits in my garage, it can stay on the street as just I won't give a f**k about damage any more.

Tri-motor with FSD, of course. I expect other options to come along closer to the time.

In any case, it's cheaper than a Roadster II, which was my next planned car (after MY for wife), although I was going to take a look at the MS Plaid too.

 

[Artful Dodger]

It's a poor way to determine either because the estimate of 15 miles/day range added by the solar panels is probably a rough estimate. Also the area of active solar panels is a rough number and we don't know the exact efficiency of the solar panels. However, these three measurements, combined with the known range (and assumed best possible solar situation) could tell you both the efficiency *and* the battery size (but only as accurately as the initial estimations of solar efficiency, panel area and miles of range added per day).

Ho, you're way out over your skis here. The truck bed is 2.8 sq. m in area. Assume 20% panel efficiency and 5 hrs/day insolation @ 1 kw/sq.m.

That's just 2.8 KWh per day. Pick any other values you want, just state your assumptions and show your math.

How do you get bty size out of that? You can't. As long as the pack is physically capable of storing the amount of energy captured in a single day, solar power rating tells you nothing about the vehicle's energy storage capacity.

Now if Elon had said it takes 35 days to fully charge the SR pack, we'd have the straw we need to make our bricks. That'd make it a 100 kwh bty pack. But as is, the revealed specs tell us nothing about the size of the bty. We can only estimate the avg daily charging rate, and even that given some assumptions.

Cheers!

 

[SpaceCash]

If I only knew or had a crystal ball, possibility of gap fill 337 is in the game. But you never know what is going to happen.

this was prescient

 

[Fact Checking]

2-3% recovery on Monday likely? -6% is such an overreaction to an unusual pickup truck, which was A) described as such beforehand and B) will probably prove to be extremely popular

This depends on whether the Friday drop was primarily caused by option market makers delta-hedging the loss of value of many short-term calls that people bought speculatively expecting a "Cybertruck bump" (the open interest that expired worthless out of the money was almost 100,000 contracts - which is 10 million shares-equivalent), and whether the buying volume of 17 million shares - 2x-3x times the usual daily average - was that of institutionals or hedge funds protecting their strike prices, or long term buying interest.

There's a good chance for a bounce - but if investor disappointment has not been fully expressed yet there could be more of a price correction. I'll be able to tell how well Monday does after the market closes.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

And how many are from 5 reservations from a single member of this board?

Probably less than 20,000, because the site was only having these issues for a few hours. There have not been any issues since then and the reservations have steadily been coming in. Those 20,000 will make little difference when the total score after this weekend is 200,000 or 250,000. But it will make a good talking point anyway in the TESLAQ community for the next 2 years.

 

[Pras]

OK, folks - we coordinated our order confirmations and I got RN112900312

I'm not doing this as a stunt, when I read that this beast is not as wide as the Model X I realise I had to have one. I'm not even worried whether it fits in my garage, it can stay on the street as just I won't give a f**k about damage any more.

Tri-motor with FSD, of course. I expect other options to come along closer to the time.

In any case, it's cheaper than a Roadster II, which was my next planned car (after MY for wife), although I was going to take a look at the MS Plaid too.

View attachment 480347

Hard choices to be made!

 

[SpaceCash]

soooo based on @LN1_Casey and @Lycanthrope 's coordinated reservations, it appears orders DO give SEQUENTIAL rn's.

So 200k have been pre-ordered in USA alone.

This is big