Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Fact Checking]

View attachment 480346

Chose the AWD 2 motor configuration, since if I was to get the truck, I'd get this version. FSD of course. May keep the reservation for a bit.

Your order is among the first RN-12,900,000+ reservation numbers - and since reservations started at around RN-12,740,000 we are now above 160,000 pre-orders in the U.S. and Europe. (Assuming the numbers increase sequentially, which I believe they do.)

 

[Fact Checking]

soooo based on @LN1_Casey and @Lycanthrope 's coordinated reservations, it appears orders DO give SEQUENTIAL rn's.

So 200k have been pre-ordered in USA alone.

This is big

How did you arrive at 200k? The lowest reported reservation number I've seen was in the RN-12,740,000 range - were there any lower ones too?

 

[SpaceCash]

How did you arrive at 200k? The lowest reported reservation number I've seen was in the RN-12,740,000 range - were there any lower ones too?

By being sloppier than you; I glossed over some things and assumed that lowest res number was RN12700000 not RN12740000

 

[Chickenlittle]

I don't think they need a conventional release, but I think they will spend the next 2 years cleaning this one up more. Softening some of the edges and adding a few curves would go along way to making it more appealing visually. Franz and his team I'm sure are not done with it yet.

I hope not. Like the version I saw

 

[SpaceCash]

I hope not. Like the version I saw

There will be no "cOnVeNtIoNaL rElEaSe"

Conventional trucks look like unadulterated garbage now. This is your new truck. Get with the times.

 

[ggr]

The shares you bought a year ago actually *are* different from the ones you bought yesterday (every share has a unique ID# and they almost certainly have a different cost basis). The brokerage will have default rules as to which shares it will sell when a sell order is placed. If you want different shares sold, you must tell them within a couple days of the trade. Some brokerages allow you to set the rules of which shares will be sold before you place the trade (FIFO, LIFO, etc).

Thank you for agreeing with me. The only thing which makes them different from each other is the IRS treatment. They have exactly the same voting rights, exactly the same value at any given instant, exactly the same dividend rights, and so on. Many other countries e.g. Australia don't make any distinction at all.

 

[Sean Wagner]

My thinking is that Cyber is almost like a budget version of the Tesla brand, good value for money and long lasting, but with slightly different aesthetics.

I like that concept. Astute.

Although I won't give them a pass on the aesthetics front, and I don't mean to judge by positioning myself on a scale but rather think the present vehicle visibly lacks the care that has been inherent in and vital to the success of every Tesla yet conceived.

I'm much more than puzzled and have suggested some detailed improvements in the appropriate thread because naked criticism is facile, unhelpful, and inconclusive.

Be that as it may, I hope Tesla will change the pickup landscape decisively either with this or another vehicle or both.

 

[Fact Checking]

I don't think they need a conventional release, but I think they will spend the next 2 years cleaning this one up more. Softening some of the edges and adding a few curves would go along way to making it more appealing visually. Franz and his team I'm sure are not done with it yet.

BTW., the reason why I think they don't want to do a "conventional" release is because any "visual reminder" of old norms would just make the vehicle look 'weirdly different from what you know' - instead of a clean slate design from first principles, within the engineering constraints of this technology.

I.e. it's better to be entirely new but self-consistently beautiful - like the iPhone departed from norms of how a phone should look like:

​

Versus the market leaders, Blackberry and Nokia:

​

 

[RobStark]

No, but the 20 year olds who followed him in the early 2012's and couldn't afford the Roadster or Model S can.

Less than a third can.

Average new vehicle buyer is over 40.

I know Tesla have younger demographics than typical OEM and I haven't seen demographics on Model 3 recently but very much doubt under 30 is a large portion.

 

[Fact Checking]

Less than a third can.

Still millions of potential customers, so what's your point?

 

[SpaceCash]

Although I won't give them a pass on the aesthetics front, and I don't mean to judge by positioning myself on a scale but rather think the present vehicle visibly lacks the care that has been inherent in and vital to the success of every Tesla yet conceived.

Sir.

You are mistaken. This thing looks amazing.

At work today, I asked ALL my colleagues "Did you order your Tesla Cybertruck yet?" and was surprised to find that most had indeed seen the unveiling (but not pre-ordered). The few that didn't know what I was talking about were amazed when I showed it to them and gave them a rundown.

Most people think it looks AMAZING "wait, you're saying this is a real life truck I can buy?"
And some quote the leading memes disparaging it "It looks like the graphics of the first tomb raider" "They didn't have enough pixels to render it, hurr durr hehe"

People love it. Women love it possibly more than men based on my highly unscientific survey.

This thing is a winner in looks and functionality and will outsell the 3

 

[RobStark]

Even if they never make, or sell a single cybertrucks (and they WILL and they will sell tens of thousands at least), this is the only time in my entire life that the announcement of a new pickup truck got to the front page of the BBC News. Nobody buys pickup trucks in the UK: NOBODY, and yet in the middle of a GENERAL ELECTION news cycle, someone revealing a new pickup truck is a major headline.

Say what you want about the product, but in terms of getting free ad-impressions for the name Tesla, this was worth tens of millions, maybe more. Maybe a lot, lot more.

Plus...this is going to be one of those products they stick in the galleries and showrooms. kids drag parents in to gawp at the truck and take instagram pics with it. meanwhile mum&dad get their first up-close with the model Y next to it...

They couldn't resist pointing out a Tesla failure.

I know the theory of all publicity is good publicity but.....

 

[RobStark]

Still millions of potential customers, so what's your point?

Every car has millions of potential customers.

What is your point.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I don't think they need a conventional release, but I think they will spend the next 2 years cleaning this one up more. Softening some of the edges and adding a few curves would go along way to making it more appealing visually. Franz and his team I'm sure are not done with it yet.

I don't think you've grasped the entire point of going to flat panels with simple bends for this vehicle. Here's the setup:

• Stainless steel is notoriously hard to form in a stamping machine
• stamping presses and their dies tools are expensive, long lead items
• painting a body in white is notoriously expensive and time consuming
• paint shops and their robots are expensive, long lead items
• Tesla is financially contrained w.limited room to expand existing facilities

See where this is going? By designing a unibody made from flat SS panels with a few simple folds on the joining edges, Tesla has simply ELIMINATED two long lead time and capital intensive steps from their manufacturing chain. Come to think of it, they don't need a frame now either (exoskelton is the structure). Brilliant!

And what has been sacrificed? Mabbe 5% in aerodynamics vs an expensive curved shape that take 2 years longer and costs $2B more to put into production? Tesla battery tech itself is improving 7% per year! Every year they DON'T wait to produce this truck is like FREE RANGE for that truck.

"If the schedule's tight, its right. If its long; its wrong"
-- Elon Musk, Sep 28, 2019​

Cheers!

 

[RobStark]

Probably less than 20,000, because the site was only having these issues for a few hours. There have not been any issues since then and the reservations have steadily been coming in. Those 20,000 will make little difference when the total score after this weekend is 200,000 or 250,000. But it will make a good talking point anyway in the TESLAQ community for the next 2 years.

I don't think it much matters what the final number is

$100 refundable deposit is not a serious commitment to buy.

In 2010 Nissan LEAF looked like a world beater with $99 deposits.

 

[dqd88]

Respectfully disagree, @dqd88 . See my earlier post in this forum.

These ain't farmers at the Steele, Alabama, truck stop right next to the Alabama International Dragway!

I think some of these young whipper-snappers will aspire to own the cybertruck. But that is not the majority of F150 buyers who need it for actual work.

 

[Cobbler]

OK, folks - we coordinated our order confirmations and I got RN112900312

I'm not doing this as a stunt, when I read that this beast is not as wide as the Model X I realise I had to have one. I'm not even worried whether it fits in my garage, it can stay on the street as just I won't give a f**k about damage any more.

Tri-motor with FSD, of course. I expect other options to come along closer to the time.

In any case, it's cheaper than a Roadster II, which was my next planned car (after MY for wife), although I was going to take a look at the MS Plaid too.

View attachment 480347

Please take me for a testride in 2021-2022

 

[Artful Dodger]

I’m still having a tough time wrapping my head around the starting price of $39.9k

that’s amazing. I keep having to remind myself that it’s 2 years away.

No huge stamping press. No new paint shop. Its just waiting on the new bty tech.

I predict it will be Telsa's most capital efficient new product rollout ever, until the Model 1 / Robotaxi:

I wonder who'll they'll get to do the voice-over for the AI Pilot?

Its just a shame I literally can’t fit that in our car park. Wifey said she would be happy to have that as her daily commuting vehicle to the office.

going to have to buy a house with a bigger carpark I suppose.

PARK IT?! Join it to the TN when you aren't using it!

Cheers!

 

[SpaceCash]

I think they making a mistake charging only $100. You can't judge real demand this way. $100 is easy to throw away even if you never plan to buy. Heck shorts may order one just to screw with count. Should be at least $1000 IMO.

It's not a mistake it's Magick.

They knew what they were doing dropping the reservation fee that low. People who told all their friends they pre-ordered one now have to follow through.

Maybe 1/3 will refund. Maybe even half. There are plenty of other people who will take their place. It's 100 bucks BECAUSE everyone can afford that. It's a psychological game.

 

[LN1_Casey]

Your order is among the first RN-12,900,000+ reservation numbers - and since reservations started at around RN-12,740,000 we are now above 160,000 pre-orders in the U.S. and Europe. (Assuming the numbers increase sequentially, which I believe they do.)

I think a good point is that we coordinated to the minute to hit submit. So the number ticked from 193 to 312 very quickly. And it’s been over a day since the unveil, so the initial rush of “Tesla Fanboi’s” has ended.