Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[SpaceCash]

Every car has millions of potential customers.

What is your point.

Dude I get it you play Devil's advocate but lately you seem to be "Every other company but Tesla is looking real appealing".
It's not that deep and even with my paranoiac tendencies I never took you for a shill. But like, wake up and smell the Cyber coffee

 

[Fred42]

I’m still having a tough time wrapping my head around the starting price of $39.9k

that’s amazing. I keep having to remind myself that it’s 2 years away.

but at the moment it’s a better deal than the model 3 or y in terms of range and seating capacity.

I hope the pricing was an objective decision supported by COGS that they believe they can accomplish, rather than they got hives due to anxiety about acceptance and made a fast decision.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

They couldn't resist pointing out a Tesla failure.

I know the theory of all publicity is good publicity but.....

What are you saying? That Tesla should have tested throwing a steel ball at the window?

Oh wait, they did...

Oh wait, they shouldn’t have...

 

[Sean Wagner]

We know now they tried before and look yourself, its amazing:
Elon Musk on Twitter

5:07 AM · Nov 23, 2019·Twitter for iPhone
17.9K Retweets
139K Likes

And 2.3 million views. A must watch. Tesla's designers are not afraid to play hardball.

 

[Fact Checking]

Every car has millions of potential customers.

What is your point.

My point is that you are either exaggerating or lying.

Here's the original argument you made:

True. But the 10 million twelve year old followers he had in 2013 will be in their 20s by the time Cybertruck rolls out.

And the vast majority still won't be buying $40k plus pickups.

Which "vast majority" claim you admitted was false:

No, but the 20 year olds who followed him in the early 2012's and couldn't afford the Roadster or Model S can.

Less than a third can.

Less than a third but still millions of such customers who can afford a $40k truck stands in stark contrast with your "vast majority cannot buy it" claim...

 

[SpaceCash]

Assuming they are selecting the current form for good reason (e.g. structural/aerodynamics/manufacturing), they could at least use panes of dark glass to give the sides a more traditional shape, despite not being one. I like a quick sketch of this better (below). Further improvement IMO would be steepening the windshield somewhat and then adding a few feet of flat roof before the long backslope.View attachment 479995

:

Only suggested modification to the design that I can cosign (the dark glass panels, not the flat roof)

 

[Artful Dodger]

Hmmm, what's that hanging from the ceiling?

FFR Cobra Replica body? Interesting for a design house, tells you about the way they think.

 

[SpaceCash]

How would they make it black?

anodize it. Wrap it. Blindfold you and waterboard you. Lots of ways

 

[uselesslogin]

Here in Nebraska I know of at least one person who wants one. His wife is at least for now put off by the design, like she doesn’t know about dropping off the kids at school in it. I told her at last it has regular door handles unlike my 3 lol. But people are talking about it.

The thing is if I didn’t have the 3 already I think I’d be waiting for this. Why spend $47k for a 3 when I can get a truck for $50k in 2 years with all the same specs but a much more comfortable interior with an extra seat and a 6.5 foot bed? When you remove the style preferences the economics are just an amazing step change. If the car looked “normal” we’d be talking about this thing cannibalizing every other car Tesla makes at least in the US where things are designed for big vehicles like this. Instead we are worried the truck won’t sell because it looks weird.

So the real question is what causes the step change? Is this mostly the result of a folded stainless steel exoskeleton? Or is this the battery technology we’ll learn about on battery day? Or is it both?

If the body design makes the difference this is certainly a far better approach than releasing this design on the 3. I’m 99% sure Elon wanted this design on the 3 but was talked out of it based on comments he made during the design phase. But to realize these cost savings do we need cybercar? Or do we just need to wait for better batteries and then the Y and 3 prices will be cut at the Cybertruck unveiling?

Anyway this is real first principles thinking. This isn’t Elon wanting a Cybertruck but instead it is throwing away everything you know about what a car is supposed to be and designing one from scratch. The world could use a lot more of this. That is what I love about Elon. He isn’t afraid to experiment and risk failure. That is the fastest way to learn and move forward.

 

[Fred42]

These are non-binding reservations, however. The least binding of all models in terms of the amount and 100% refundable.
Plus, who knows how many were cancelled due to site problems and everybody ordering 4-5 trucks due to payments not going through.
Could be many less committed buyers than 200k.

I decided to stop fretting about the lenient requirement for a $100 refundable deposit that will likely lead to many cancellations. They're engaging potential customers, many of whom don't plan to buy but will keep thinking about it, and some will eventually go for it. It's good marketing so long as Tesla is realistic about the "orders", although this might not matter due to cancellations being outnumbered by others deciding to buy. We absolutely don't want a repeat of what happened with the 3 where Tesla wasted lots of money in an unsuccessful attempt to rush to market that was inspired by the reservation count.

 

[SpaceCash]

It's commonly said that Elon designs "from first principles" and perhaps so, but his presentations aren't at all.

Of course... because presentations are presentations, and not design sessions.

If last night's event had been a scientific breakdown of the design process, everybody would have fallen asleep. It opened with lasers and deep bass music because it was meant to entertain and catch eyeballs. It was deliberately abrupt, rough, short, and over-the-top. We have all been able to decipher the technicalities in the ensuing 24 hours. The unveiling was a 9/10. And the smashed windows may have been intentional. Read the 48 laws of power or Sun Tzu's art of war or something

 

[electracity]

How would they make it black?

Perhaps black iron oxide like they do with guns? There's plenty of matte black stainless used in architecture and outside art. I believe it is more resistant to corrosion than plain stainless.

 

[Mike Ambler]

One thing is clear, this car is ground-breaking and innovative to a degree not seen in the auto or truck world since the beginnings of the industry and I'm not referring to the appearance!

Looks like we are on for another round of Model 3 style "boil overs" in the competitors' engineering centres. Super looking forward to more details (about manf. technique).

FWIW I also concur with the Model 2 using cyber tech and 2022 batts! I drive a 300k km Prius Gen 2. A 260 mile, 8 sec, Cyber 2 (with Tesla handling), for 20-25k $ / € would.....well I don't know, but I suspect that the remainder of the world wide car fleet would be accessible.

....batteries....factories....world wide domination...10k share price. Seems pretty obvious really.

Funny how that "cyber" profile (sans hard creases) now looks tame.

 

[SO16]

Analysts continue to very quietly raise their earnings estimates. Average expectations are now up to $1.29 in Q4 and $7.52 in 2020.

So they can claim a miss and the stock drops.

 

[SpaceCash]

All of us on here are die-hard fans.

You specifically have got me absolutely fooled, because I coulda sworn you weren't one despite your tryhard name

 

[Sean Wagner]

Some people will never get beyond the superficial qualities of the design of a car. And those people will never find the Cybertruck beautiful. That's OK - it just means most Cybertruck owners will be people who are more aware of these things than others. Of course, there will always be people who appreciate it only because it's "rad" or "different", but that's OK too.

As to the entire structural design, Tesla has not revealed that yet. Is the under chassis constructed of SS as well? How are the different SS panels joined? SS rivets? Bolts? Welds? Glue? Or a combination of techniques based on suitability for each location? I have heard all we know about the allow is it's either SS 306 or 30x and it is cold rolled and related to alloys used on SpaceX rockets. It's important to note that SS comes in hundreds of different alloys, each with unique properties. A number of months ago Elon mentioned the truck would make extensive use of titanium. Is the stainless steel alloy used one of the ones that contain titanium? Is the rolltop of the bed (or "vault") made of titanium or titanium alloy? Tesla with its association to SpaceX is in a unique situation here. Not only do they have access to expert metallurgists but they probably have the relationships with metal suppliers/manufacturers, and buy metals in large enough lots, that they can order runs of custom metal alloys/products without paying "boutique" prices. This is exciting.

I really would like to have a better understanding of the entire chassis' design. Just increasing the skin's thickness until all static and dynamic loads are accounted for would incur an enormous weight penalty.

Pure speculation, and Ti is rather expensive. but maybe the cost delta shrinks in certain applications, with advantages worth paying for - say in a very torquey pickup built to go anywhere. I see the suspension as a prime "suspect":

Quote:/
In 2012, it was announced that a team led by André Albert at the Fraunhofer Institute for Surface Engineering “developed a new process for hydroforming titanium at high temperatures in a single step ...

With titanium’s exceptional versatility, this new hydroform procedure could move its use from the aerospace industry into everyday life, including window frames, hydraulic lines, jet engine components, bio-compatible implants, and bicycle frames — not to mention the possibilities for the automotive industry, where “because of the lack of cost-effective forming technologies for titanium, currently manifolds, exhaust pipes, catalytic converters and mufflers are primarily manufactured from high-alloy stainless steel”
/Unquote, Source: Hydroforming Titanium for the Masses? - American Hydroformers

Not to mention "manifolds, exhaust pipes, catalytic converters and mufflers"!

 

[Cattledog]

I don't think it much matters what the final number is

$100 refundable deposit is not a serious commitment to buy.

In 2010 Nissan LEAF looked like a world beater with $99 deposits.

Unfortunately, the 2010 Nissan LEAF NEVER looked like a world beater any year or at any deposit price.

And while $100 may not be much of a commitment to buy, it will do something - it will delay some number of people from going out and replacing their ICE pick-up truck during the next two years, and then some of those people will buy the Cybertruck. I'll take that small win.

 

[bhtooefr]

Ho, you're way out over your skis here. The truck bed is 2.8 sq. m in area. Assume 20% panel efficiency and 5 hrs/day insolation @ 1 kw/sq.m.

That's just 2.8 KWh per day. Pick any other values you want, just state your assumptions and show your math.

How do you get bty size out of that? You can't. As long as the pack is physically capable of storing the amount of energy captured in a single day, solar power rating tells you nothing about the vehicle's energy storage capacity.

Now if Elon had said it takes 35 days to fully charge the SR pack, we'd have the straw we need to make our bricks. That'd make it a 100 kwh bty pack. But as is, the revealed specs tell us nothing about the size of the bty. We can only estimate the avg daily charging rate, and even that given some assumptions.

Cheers!

You can get battery size with a bit more info - you need to know what daily solar energy captured is. That gives you energy per 15 miles, which lets you extrapolate capacity from the range.

You're estimating 2.8 kWh per day. 2.8 kWh per 15 miles is 187 Wh/mi, which would imply a 47 kWh pack for the 250+ mile range. (Somehow, I suspect Musk is using a much higher assumption of energy per day, probably through significantly longer duration of insolation.)

 

[BioSehnsucht]

You can get battery size with a bit more info - you need to know what daily solar energy captured is. That gives you energy per 15 miles, which lets you extrapolate capacity from the range.

You're estimating 2.8 kWh per day. 2.8 kWh per 15 miles is 187 Wh/mi, which would imply a 47 kWh pack for the 250+ mile range. (Somehow, I suspect Musk is using a much higher assumption of energy per day, probably through significantly longer duration of insolation.)

Maximize insolation by having Smart Summon park the car in different positions to keep the sun at optimum angle throughout the day! /s

 

[EVMeister]

View attachment 480349


They couldn't resist pointing out a Tesla failure.

I know the theory of all publicity is good publicity but.....

I think it's more Dave Lee than the BBC in general. He seems to have an axe to grind against Tesla. Fortunately he's moving away from the BBC in Janaury.