Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Off Shore]

From the road in San Salvador (alas in a Ticabus and not a Tesla) I wish you all a happy and prosperous New Year. Thanks for the entertaining and informative reading.

 

[engle]

24-minute video with all cameras uploading to YouTube... (46 mins left!)

Check this out while waiting for the final video with front, left & right repeaters, and rear camera:

Skip to 6:25.

The final video will reveal very interesting data in regards to exactly what did not make Q4 in Fremont. ;-)

 

[mongo]

Moderator:

Yes. For the past 5 or 6 years, at each year's end I would pull the curtains on the variously-named "Investors' Thread", and start anew. But some while back I decided there was no reason to follow this and so, at least for the next 365, we'll be continuing this thread without pause.

Cool, might I suggest updating the index post with the start of the 2020 section?

MODERATOR:
And with this, we open the gates to the 2019 thread. Moderators implore all to hearken back to these opening posts for occasional direction.
Happy New Year, all!

To link to the now-closed 2018 "Market Action" thread, go here: TSLA Market Action: 2018 Investor Roundtable

To link to the now-closed 2018 "General" thread, go here: General Discussion: 2018 Investor Roundtable

 

[sundaymorning]

You want to point to your evidence for 1) Tesla having model years; and 2) there being massive depreciation?

Every car built with a VIN# is given a birthdate, that model corresponds to Make, Year, and Style that should be registered with the DMV. Depreciation always occurs to every car when the new year hits, people generally don’t want an older model 2018 when it’s already January/February 2019, especially if a redesign occurs. You can always google or ask around at a dealership come January as research. A 2019 model will be sold less than a car produced in January 2020.

 

[Fact Checking]

Hi, everybody. My final delivery estimate for Q4 is 108,400 units. The first table shows how my estimate changed over time. I post these estimates on Twitter here.

Here is a survey where you can see other Q4 estimates. Currently, there are 67 entries. You can add or edit your estimate until the end of today, Pacific Time.

My Q4 production and delivery estimates, FWIW, are slightly lower:

• Q4 deliveries of 14k S+X and 91k Model 3 - 105k total deliveries for Q4, slightly beating Q4 and 2019 guidance of 104.1k/360k, a new quarterly record by a nice margin.
• My production estimates are ~6.7k/week M3 through 13 weeks, 87k for Q4 (+10% increase), and 15k S/X (flat QoQ), 102k total production in Q4 - a new quarterly record as well.

Inventory drawdown is a wildcard though, as @ReflexFunds suggested before. I'm still going with a moderate inventory drawdown due to the possible S/X weakness and international expansion.

(Only 15 GF3 deliveries, I think that after meeting 2019 guidance they were saving them all for Q1.)

Not advice.

 

[skivi]

Thanks to all for the great inputs, i think i hadn't the guts to hold that strong through this year without this superb knowledge in this forum, and also the funny parts i like a lot.
I wish everyone a great 2020 and that TSLA holds a bright future for us.

 

[mongo]

I knew I wasn’t going crazy when I heard the 3k/week number by end of year. I guess I missed Elon changing output target along the way.

I think I found the quote you are thinking of in the Q4 2018 letter, and the output target did not change (expand the quote).

Model 3 production volumes in Fremont should gradually continue to grow throughout 2019 and reach a sustained rate of 7,000 units per week by the end of the year. We are planning to continue to produce Model 3 vehicles at maximum production rates throughout 2019. Inclusive of Gigafactory Shanghai, where we are initially aiming for 3,000 Model 3 vehicles per week, our goal is to be able to produce 10,000 vehicles per week on a sustained basis. Barring unexpected challenges with Gigafactory Shanghai, we are targeting annualized Model 3 output in excess of 500,000 units sometime between Q4 of 2019 and Q2 of 2020.

Along with 7k from Fremont they planned to reach 3k in GF3 to hit the 10k total in the Q4 2019 to Q2 2020 time frame, which lines up with what happened so far.

So, with respect to -- that said, it looks like we'll reach volume production at the end of this year with, let's say, more than 1,000 cars a week, maybe 2,000 from Shanghai Giga at the end of this year.

@kbM3 's quote is from the Q1 call in April, when GF3 was one third into construction. So Elon was right on, they are doing more than 1k and GF3 could do more than 2k with two shifts.

The 3,000 number Colin referenced was a reference to January's Q4 letter and the call where Elon said:

Elon Musk -- Co-Founder and Chief Executive Officer

Yes. I mean, as a ballpark figure, probably it's something about -- something in the order of $0.5 billion in CAPEX to get to the 3,000 vehicle rates in Shanghai, ballpark figure. And as Deepak was saying, [Inaudible] very competitive debt financing in China, really extremely compelling interest rates, and we do not expect that to be a capital drain on the company.

Again, 3k was the final target rate for GF3, not an end of 2019 goal.

 

[Singuy]

My Q4 production and delivery estimates, FWIW, are slightly lower:

• Q4 deliveries of 14k S+X and 91k Model 3 - 105k total deliveries for Q4, slightly beating Q4 and 2019 guidance of 104.1k/360k, a new quarterly record by a nice margin.
• My production estimates are ~6.7k/week M3 through 13 weeks, 87k for Q4 (+10% increase), and 15k S/X (flat QoQ), 102k total production in Q4 - a new quarterly record as well.

Inventory drawdown is a wildcard though, as @ReflexFunds suggested before. I'm still going with a moderate inventory drawdown due to the possible S/X weakness and international expansion.

(Only 15 GF3 deliveries, I think that after meeting 2019 guidance they were saving them all for Q1.)

Not advice.

Interesting 14k S+X numbers. Didn't Q3 guided for higher S+X numbers?(or they said higher than Q3 which was 17,400). They even said current delivers of S+X doesn't reflect true demand of S+X for Q4 which is suppose to be better.

Zach 2019 Q3 Transcript: "And we are increasing production on our S and X lines for this quarter in response to increasing demand. And so, I think part of the story here is, as we have launched, ramped and stabilized Model 3, that's kind of consumed a lot of the attention around the company. But now as that has stabilized, we're able to focus our attention and balance that between S and X and Model 3. So, the delivery numbers in Q3 understated the interest in the product for that quarter. And we continue to see strength in the order rate, which we anticipate will be reflected in S and X deliveries in Q4."

 

[Singer3000]

Last year P&D came out on 2 Jan. Anyone remember if it was before or after market close?

Edit: happy new year by the way!

 

[Fact Checking]

Last year P&D came out on 2 Jan. Anyone remember if it was before or after market close?

Edit: happy new year by the way!

Yes, it was before market open, here are the SEC filing timestamps:

  Tesla production and deliveries report, 2018/Q4:

       Filing Date: 2019-01-02 (Wed)
          Accepted: 2019-01-02 08:38:32 ET (Wed)
  Period of Report: 2019-01-02 (Wed)

It might take a bit longer this year, as they are more spread out internationally, while in Q4/2018 all their Model 3 deliveries were in the U.S. and Canada.

 

[Fact Checking]

Interesting 14k S+X numbers. Didn't Q3 guided for higher S+X numbers?(or they said higher than Q3 which was 17,400). They even said current delivers of S+X doesn't reflect true demand of S+X for Q4 which is suppose to be better.

I'm a bit more conservative there in my estimates, because the Q3 call was in the middle of the Nürburgring record setting efforts, which might have caused a temporary increase in orders. I still don't know whether showing the Plaid on the Nürburgring without camo helped or hurt short-term S/X demand.

 

[Singuy]

I'm a bit more conservative there in my estimates, because the Q3 call was in the middle of the Nürburgring record setting efforts, which might have caused a temporary increase in orders. I still don't know whether showing the Plaid on the Nürburgring without camo helped or hurt short-term S/X demand.

Ic, the S/X numbers not hitting Q3 numbers IMO will have a negative impact in SP even with good Model 3 deliveries as most analysts are baking in much higher S/X numbers already. So hopefully your forecast wouldn't come to fruition. I much rather take less model 3 deliveries in exchange for more bullish S/X numbers for this Q.

 

[engle]

The largest number of unsold in Q4 Teslas will be in the Fremont Factory Delivery Event Parking Lot. We will be able to count *exactly* how many there were... Stay tuned. (10 minutes left it's uploading to YouTube now.)

Wall $treet "analysts" focus on quarter-by-quarter deliveries and profits. What they do just increases price volatility which helps machine trading to profit from the swings. Personally, as a long-term buy-and-hold investor I don't care about these numbers. Whatever was not booked on 12/31/2019 will appear in 2020 Q1. I care about year-over-year growth % in deliveries and am very happy with that ever since 2011 when I started investing. Of course, now that cash flow is self-sustaining that is awesome for longs. I also care about timely new product introductions like Model Y in 2020 which will be a huge units driver; the Chinese Giga ramp, and whenever the Berlin Giga comes online. Finally, I expect TSLA to be added to the S&P 500 in 2020 which will force all those EFTs and mutual funds that track it to buy TSLA.

We could guesstimate how many units TSLA will produce / deliver in 2020?

Russ

 

[Sunlight]

The largest number of unsold in Q4 Teslas will be in the Fremont Factory Delivery Event Parking Lot. We will be able to count *exactly* how many there were... Stay tuned. (10 minutes left it's uploading to YouTube now.)

Wall $treet "analysts" focus on quarter-by-quarter deliveries and profits. What they do just increases price volatility which helps machine trading to profit from the swings. Personally, as a long-term buy-and-hold investor I don't care about these numbers. Whatever was not booked on 12/31/2019 will appear in 2020 Q1. I care about year-over-year growth % in deliveries and am very happy with that ever since 2011 when I started investing. Of course, now that cash flow is self-sustaining that is awesome for longs. I also care about timely new product introductions like Model Y in 2020 which will be a huge units driver; the Chinese Giga ramp, and whenever the Berlin Giga comes online. Finally, I expect TSLA to be added to the S&P 500 in 2020 which will force all those EFTs and mutual funds that track it to buy TSLA.

We could guesstimate how many units TSLA will produce / deliver in 2020?

Russ

Do you want us to include the 15 units from the Berlin factory in Dec '20 as well?

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Exactly 500 Model 3 were delivered on the last day of the year in The Netherlands. Total deliveries for the month were 12,500 (of which 12,000 Model 3) and for the quarter almost 17,000 (of which 16,300 Model 3).

The total for the preceding quarter was 7,500.

 

[engle]

The link to the video that allows one to count *exactly* how many 2019 New Year's Eve Fremont Factory Delivery Event cars did *not* make Q4 as of 12:40 am on 1/1/2020 is found in this thread:

Tesla Fremont Factory New Car Parking Lot ALL Cameras: 1/1/2020 @ 12:40 AM - Count the leftovers! ;)

Please subscribe to my channel to help me get to 1,000 so I can do YouTube livestreams in future. I used twitch (teslaruss) last night, instead.

Thanks! Russ

 

[avoigt]

Looking at the monthly chart and what has been achieved and happened lately to the Tesla SP I want to congratulate everybody with a long time horizon who stayed with his/her strategy did not blink but bought instead when we have been below $200 a few months ago.

At that time I did add the last time and am very happy that I did ever since. Its been unreal to see the SP at this low levels and good to see that some sanity returned to the trading lately. While there is still an incredible amount of shorts invested its a good indicator that the market will not turn to 2019 levels.

My predication lately has been that we may test $400 or $380 but we've seen them trying to year end for cosmetic reasons (3xx sounds better to them) but the upside interest is immense. The trading yesterday had a very clear statement and should be an encouragement but all and everything will depend indeed on the P&D report that is likely only a day away to be released.

It will be a positive one for sure still the SP can go down to $400 easily as we all know every news is used from shorts to sell to create a narrative something to be wrong. Be prepared it will happen again and its really up to how good the numbers they release really are. If there is one single shadow somewhere be it CF or inventory or whatever they will make a big story out of it. Don't forget to make a step back and look at the bigger picture.

No reason to be concerned though anyway as the overall market sentiment shifted in a significant way and more positive reports are seen and with it more investors will show up asking themselves if its now the time to go in.

2019 has been a tremendous successful year comparing to 2018 mainly due to extremely good, controlled and consistent execution and delivery on promises.I expect the same in 2020 and more.

Future looks bright with many new surprises to happen including a likely S&P inclusion, exiting news about battery technology improvements and with GF3 the new production power house as well as more batteries out of Sparks. Many more positives but you all likely know them and this gets already long.

An addition from me sitting here in Germany all the competition has shown now they can't deliver really with only BMW missing. I discount the ID.3 because the Taycan has shown what top notch performance is for them so far for the group but of course hope the core VW brand will do better. When I stated on Twitter in August the Taycan will disappoint with range and efficiency people did not believe it but it was clearly visible to me. I can say there will be a ton of software issues to come up soon from the German Automakers with severe impact on their vehicles. It gets more ugly.

2 days ago I have seen a Taycan and chatted with the owner at an Ionity charger where I did get interesting insights that I will share in my weekly Patreon letter. No worries you don't have to be a Patron to read it just wait a week and it will be free.

In short charging speed is looking good but he still needed 43 minutes to fill it and frankly said with my Model 3 I rarely charge longer than 30-40 minutes but drive longer distances. 3 charge stops in winter for a 950 km driving 150km/h is not so bad and I have the not so efficient Performance with wider rims. Taycan Efficiency is bad as we know for a variety of reason I don't want to elaborate here but astonishingly the built quality from the vehicle driven by an Acoustic Engineer from Porsche has been bad. More about this with pics here: Tesla_performance_3 on Twitter

Right now I do not see a single BEV coming in 2020 that can compete with a Tesla which may has caused investors to reevaluate. In particular the miss of the Taycan is an eye opener for people who thought Porsche is the best and will remain. Actually the vehicle has some ares of superiority against a Tesla but you only recognize them as a race driver on a track in very specific situations.

Long story short, a picture tells you more than thousand words.

P.S. A happy new year to everyone!

 

[SW2Fiddler]

Mod: we really mean it. No more "numerology" postings. --ggr.

Forum responds with pages and pages of posts about the totally un-arbitrary, totally significant “2020” and “01/01”

 

[lklundin]

The largest number of unsold in Q4 Teslas will be in the Fremont Factory Delivery Event Parking Lot. We will be able to count *exactly* how many there were... Stay tuned. (10 minutes left it's uploading to YouTube now.)

Wall $treet "analysts" focus on quarter-by-quarter deliveries and profits. What they do just increases price volatility which helps machine trading to profit from the swings. Personally, as a long-term buy-and-hold investor I don't care about these numbers. Whatever was not booked on 12/31/2019 will appear in 2020 Q1. I care about year-over-year growth % in deliveries and am very happy with that ever since 2011 when I started investing. Of course, now that cash flow is self-sustaining that is awesome for longs. I also care about timely new product introductions like Model Y in 2020 which will be a huge units driver; the Chinese Giga ramp, and whenever the Berlin Giga comes online. Finally, I expect TSLA to be added to the S&P 500 in 2020 which will force all those EFTs and mutual funds that track it to buy TSLA.

We could guesstimate how many units TSLA will produce / deliver in 2020?

Russ

Thanks for your efforts!

Regarding your expectation (and that of others here), that in 2020 Tesla will be added to the S&P 500:

Assume that Tesla meets the objective criteria for inclusion (incl. e.g. GAAP net income Q1 > 0, 19Q4 + Q1 > 266M$), what are then the chances that the decision of S&P (which AFAIK is made internally and not subject to any public scrutiny) will decide to not include Tesla in the S&P 500?

I ask because the (almost) only thing I know about S&P is from that scene in 'The Big Short'...

Actually, since today is a holiday, let me include the link:

 

[engle]

Hi @lklundin, I just skimmed this Quartz article it goes into S&P 500 quarterly add/drop specifics:

The art and science of stewarding the S&P 500

Please share what you think if you have time & interest to read? (I'm too tired to read the whole thing now)

Thanks!

Russ

PS. Seven were added in 2019 Q4, which is 1.4% turnover that quarter. 20 were added in 2019, exactly 4% turnover:

List of S&P 500 companies - Wikipedia

These names can also be compared to TSLA... Whenever they add it, I wonder what it's "ranking" will be @ current $75B market cap?

Thanks for your efforts!

Regarding your expectation (and that of others here), that in 2020 Tesla will be added to the S&P 500:

Assume that Tesla meets the objective criteria for inclusion (incl. e.g. GAAP net income Q1 > 0, 19Q4 + Q1 > 266M$), what are then the chances that the decision of S&P (which AFAIK is made internally and not subject to any public scrutiny) will decide to not include Tesla in the S&P 500?

I ask because the (almost) only thing I know about S&P is from that scene in 'The Big Short'...

Actually, since today is a holiday, let me include the link: