SebastianR
Active Member
Is there a place I can watch Elon's comments only? (No need for double translation)
Got it - here starting minute 18:
Got it - here starting minute 18:
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Btw, is it just me, or… I didn’t actually get any new info on the “Model Y program”… Did they announce they’re starting production now? Or was it just a generic “It’s the next thing!” type of announcement, getting the workers excited about future expansion?
The problem with building a "small Eurocar", and the reason Tesla hasn't done it already, is that buyers expect them to be cheaper, but with an EV, such a design actually is more expensive to make. They virtually always have vertical rear hatches (to maximize internal space within a limited footprint), which significantly hurts aero, which increases energy consumption and thus means more battery cost for the same range, or less range for a given pack cost - and either way, slower charging (which also increases Tesla's Supercharger infrastructure needs, and thus capital costs).
I'm sure they will eventually make one, of course.
As for making it in China and selling to Europe... no.
So little faith in tesla engineering....
I say yes
There were actually people believing that they were going to be "starting production now"?
The sign stated right from the beginning that this was the launch of the Model Y project in China.
Tesla halo-effect for Brandenburg region:
German carmakers eye Brandenburg after Tesla expansion push
“They’re asking: What made you interesting for Tesla?” Steinbach said. “We are noticing a pull effect,” Steinbach said about Tesla’s decision.
Meanwhile, the others are not following Tesla-timescales (my bold):
Microvast, a company specialized in fast charging and battery solutions, will build a factory in Ludwigsfelde and BASF is mulling whether to build an electric car battery cell production facility in the region, Steinbach said.
BASF’s management board is due to decide in the next six to seven months whether to formally approve the investment, Steinbach said.
German carmakers eye Brandenburg after Tesla expansion push
“They’re asking: What made you interesting for Tesla?” Steinbach said. “We are noticing a pull effect,” Steinbach said about Tesla’s decision.
Meanwhile, the others are not following Tesla-timescales (my bold):
Microvast, a company specialized in fast charging and battery solutions, will build a factory in Ludwigsfelde and BASF is mulling whether to build an electric car battery cell production facility in the region, Steinbach said.
BASF’s management board is due to decide in the next six to seven months whether to formally approve the investment, Steinbach said.
Sometimes missing the boat colors people's commentary.
I for one have been gonads-deep on margin all 2019 and haven't sold anything. Tesla is a juggernaut. People will regret not buying in the 500s by this summer
What does engineering have to do with the fact that Tesla would make any car for Europe in Europe, at GF4? Or the fact that European consumers generally don't like Chinese-made cars?
And if you were referring to the earlier comments about aero: I said that they probably will eventually make one. But physics renders it a worse drag shape, which means more batteries, which means more cost. There is no getting around rear taper constraints. Air detaches when the flow gets too steep. There are various techniques you can use to try to maintain flow attachment as long as possible, but the basic shape of the vehicle always defines your baseline, and vehicles with a rear truncated at a large fraction of their cross section are fundamentally a draggier shape than vehicles that taper at the rear. The only thing you can really do to counter this is reduce the width and height, to reduce the cross section. But while Europe in general prefers smaller vehicles than the US, we generally don't prefer super-minis. Indeed, preferred heights for vehicles seems to be rising.
Some people misinterpret the word "engineering" to mean "magic".
Karen. Just buy and hold. You cannot time this run nor can you convince anyone here that Tesla's smaller Chinese commuter car will cost more than current offerings.
This conversation is getting increasingly surreal. What do any of:
* Engineering in general
* Energy consumption of European-style small hatches
* Overall cost of manufacturing European-style small hatches, with particular emphasis on battery needs
* Indirect costs to Tesla of vehicles with higher energy consumption
* Whether Tesla would make European-style small hatch
* Where Tesla would make a European-style small hatch
... have to do with investment strategies?
Yeah, ok, cool... what does that mean, practically? I guess I expected some specifics, like they’re going to build this other factory section that goes over there, and they’re going to place the GA line there, and... you know, that type of thing.
Not complaining, I thought Elon celebrating the 1-year anniversary of his Shanghai GF dance in front of Chinese govt. officials by doing an extended version of his Shanghai GF dance in front of Chinese govt. officials was a great move, but I’m technically inclined, so…
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Yeah, 460 will be the line to defend today. We'll likely blow through that shortly after the Open, and then the shortzes will try to walk back the SP with an extended fade to Close.
However, a positive macro environment today will make that harder to do, so barring an 'Orange' alert, I think it'll be a tough day for shortie.
MMs will have their way again on Friday. The have unlimited shorting power, precious little visiblilty of their manipulatations, and no SEC oversight whatsoever. So there's that.
Cheers!
It's "launched" now because they opened up Model Y orders to Chinese customers. On the website it says (translated), "production is expected to start as soon as 2021".
The Tesla bull community sometimes goes overboard on unrealistic expectations, but I have to say, expecting Tesla to be building and delivering Model Ys in China when they don't have a line for them there and haven't even opened their US line yet is a new level in ridiculousness.
*ED : ReflexFunds thinks that the Y page may already have been open to customers (wherein this launch would only represent the start of the project to build the Y line at GF3). I've seen some reporting elsewhere that they were opening up Y orders, but I believe he's right about the page not being new. If there's going to be a special opening of a "domestic only" Y option, it's not happened yet.
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Nah. You clearly missed much of the recent run and have obliquely admitted so "why are you making me roll my call spreads hurrdurr", which has in turn clearly altered the tone of all your postings to slightly indignant, pseudo bearishness.
We are not dumb.
Had to compare that to Norway. One of the largest charging providers is Fortum Charge & Drive. They have 1900 charging stations in Norway. We have several other providers too.
Source: Fortum i Norge | Fortum.no
1. This conversation has literally nothing to with anything related to stock prices or investment strategies. What you're doing is a injection of the topic into an unrelated conversation because you have a bone to pick for some bizarre reason.
2. I'm raking in money, and thrilled by it. My account has something like 5-6x'ed since the Q3 ER. And the fact that you'd think that bought call spreads would be hurt by a rising stock price shows that you have zero understanding of options whatsoever. Even after reducing leverage as prices have risen, my leverage was about 7:1 last time I checked. What's yours? You want to call someone with a +7:1 leverage a bear, seriously? If you're just "buying and holding stock", my leverage is *way* higher than yours. I'm only critical of investment strategies that are far more extreme, like Jack's. I worry he's going to lose a ton of money that way. I could be wrong, but I worry for him.
3. Literally nothing has changed about my views of any topic I've written about. I've long been writing about the critical importance of aero to EVs and how engineering doesn't mean "magic", that you can make a vehicle of any shape and have it use as much energy as a vehicle of any other shape.
4. If you're only here to be a jerk, please leave.
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Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
OF COURSE they're not starting production now. That was a stupid rumor started by an irresponsible blogger based on a flawed chinglish tweet which ended as a question.
Sheesh, we need a little critical thinking up in here. They don't even have a Model Y production building yet, never mind the months it will take to build and then commission the body and GA lines. Don't expect any of that before the 'v1' line is up and running in Fremont. Why troubleshoot twice? Do their learning once, then replicate at GF3/4 during 2021.
Today's announcement was of the start of the project to build the Model Y at GF3/Shanghai, nothing more. It's like the Oct 2018 announcement for GF3 Model 3.
LN1_Casey
Draco dormiens nunquam titillandus
I don't think this is a surprise to anyone. In fact, I'd be more surprised if Tesla wasn't doing 500-800 orders+ a day BEFORE the subsidy announcement.
I mean, the $TLSAQ crowd will be struck like a battering ram, but that's their own fault for the block list. Hastag, no sympathies.
This is not MIC Model Y. I guess this order page has always been open. MIC SR+ Y is not going to cost ¥444k vs Model 3 at ¥300k.
I agree its absurd to think MIC Y production is imminent. Though I think we could see cars before the end of 2020.
Some retail investors and hedge funds do buy converts for both the debt and call option exposure.
However, generally converts are bought by debt funds who either are not allowed or do not want the equity exposure.
My assumption here for Tesla converts was 80% owned by debt funds, 20% by unhedged buyers. And an unhedged % of 20% is likely higher than for most company's converts.
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