Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[MP3Mike]

It's called "Level 2 Quotes". You can get them through most Brokers with a sufficiently priviledged trading account. @Cherry Wine has been kind enough to post the occasional screenie from the App.

FYI: E*TRADE charges $5/month for access to the Level 2 NASDAQ data.

 

[TradingInvest]

This pullback actually has some benefits. Some shorts bought short term calls to avoid margin calls. It's a good thing so they get burnt on both positions.

 

[Nocturnal]

With some shame I have to admit I temporarily got shaken out. So yeah, I'm a weak long now. I rode it all the way down from 350 to 178 and kept buying. The lowering of my average price insulated me against the drop last spring.

But the last 20 hours the manipulations, the huge movements and the amounts at stake were getting too much for me. So I cashed out a 760 this morning with a profit op $520k (yep, I know I could have chosen a much better moment as that is near the low).

I will look if I can get back in over the next weeks when things settle down, because I fully believe in the long term prospects of this company. Maybe I'll start writing puts and buying long-term calls, but I first need to switch provider to be able to do that as my current provider does't offer options. Sorry guys for participating in this drop.

We all have our reasons and no shame in half a million of profit. You will have a chance to buy back in lower or higher, but either way you can still ride the train!

 

[Jack6591]

Exxon/Mobile will not go quietly into the night. This is a knife—that will continue for years. I’ve got Elon’s back to the bitter end. Do all the you can to advance the Master Plan. Buy the dips, it’s the best way to fight back.

They are luddites. You cannot fight technological evolution. Tesla’s victory is certain. It is a safe and grounded investment. Go long. Stay long.

To do well while doing good is honorable.

 

[scubastevo80]

Before this rally he went to TV and said TSLA is the best short. So Eisman is done for now, that's good. He probably shorted more than he can handle.

He needs to be burnt one more time. Next time he can short 2000, cover at 3000.

He also hyped GM's lead in autonomous technology (probably because he's invested there)... has anyone looked into that and can comment on where they are versus TSLA?

 

[KarenRei]

New Wuwa video:

(My apologies if someone else posted it and I missed it)

 

[Nocturnal]

Exxon/Mobile will not go quietly into the night. This is a knife—that will continue for years. I’ve got Elon’s back to the bitter end. Do all the you can to advance the Master Plan. Buy the dips, it’s the best way to fight back.

They are luddites. You cannot fight technological evolution. Tesla’s victory is certain. It is a safe and grounded investment. Go long. Stay long.

I hope their tanking share price limits their ability to continue harming Tesla and the planet.

 

[goinfraftw]

Re: the coronavirus' effects on the Shanghai factory...I've read that the factory is limited only based on battery availability. I may be wrong about this because its just from what I've read.

So, potentially naive question, but is it possible at all for the factory to actually output what it expects to in Q1 if there's a "surplus" of unused batteries (intended for production for Shanghai) and output is increased to cover (in a burst) for the time lost due to the coronavirus?

 

[Late2theGame]

Looks like a lot of uptick capping the last half hour to prevent the SP to recover with the markets. Totally flat while SPX and COMPX are nicely up. Will this continue all day or will they run out of steam? Not sure about the current volume.

 

[jhm]

I'll be satisfied to see Tesla to trade in the $670 to $970 range for the rest of the year. Crossing $1000 can wait until next year after Tesla has delivered more than 500k in 2020.

If in fact we stay in this range, the smart thing to do is accumulate below $750 so you can enjoy a 33% or better gain in the span of about a year.

So buy the dips and we'll party again in 2021.

 

[LST]

I actually have a good reason to short TSLA (haven't done it myself, mind you): to buy SpaceX

There's several funds that have SpaceX in them, but only as a small fraction. You could effectively buy a pure SpaceX play by buying the funds and shorting all of the non-SpaceX companies in ratios relative to their fraction of the fund you've bought (assuming they're all public). Said funds often have Tesla in them as well. Hence, shorting Tesla to buy SpaceX

I wouldn't recommend this strategy, however! In addition to it being high maintenance, you'd have to maintain total short positions much larger than your SpaceX position, which - even though they're in effect zero leverage - your broker would require you to tie up significant amounts of cash to do so.

@KarenRei : Which fund has the most percentage of SpaceX ? I looked up the two of Ron Baron, which have both holdings of around 4.5%. Are there others ? Thanks for your info. (Bolding by me)

 

[MarcusMaximus]

He didn't get into specifics, just complained about Musk promising things (he called it puffery) and how the price has gone up beyond any reason. So this has to be insider trading. He said he actually likes what Tesla is doing with EVs and solar energy but thinks this is all manipulation. He is clueless about the real manipulation of course.

In light of this information about his reasons, I renew my call for the FBI to investigate Nader for terrorism. After all, it could plausibly be true, and apparently that’s all you need now!

 

[TradingInvest]

Is it possible, that the last two days were a VW style short squeeze and now we settle back to a new post-short base-price (which should be about 20% higher than the pre-squeeze price)?

I know Ihor was insisting that there was no major short covering, but he has been wrong before...

VW was squeezed to 20X of it's intrinsic value. At that time every one knew VW shouldn't be a one trillion dollars company. The main short, who sold naked Calls, jumped train track.

TSLA is still undervalued. People can argue about this valuation, the long side thinks it's undervalued. Yesterday Ron Baron said if he is allowed, he would buy more TSLA today and expect 10 fold in the next 10 years. Shorts seem to be fine... for now.

To me the comparison doesn't make sense.

 

[Remus]

Nader rumbling around and could not even give the right/concrete reasons on Tesla attack, and ending up advice Musk to slow down his words to avoid issues with FCC ... All over the place. Even CNBC folks could not really grasp what he tried to say

Normal reaction from a who was proven wrong in public and trying to find excuses.

 

[Causalien]

Just a note, this will likely increase the number of cases the coming days:
Wuhan "Fire Eye" lab beings trial operation, able to complete 10,000 nCoV PCR tests per day. : China_Flu

Ya, and I do not believe that the market has priced in this yet. Since the narrative has been that the official detected case is increasing at a steady 2000 per day rate so it looks manageable. I even saw many making math challenged reasoning that the % of case detected has been decreasing. Well duh. 2000 case out of 2000 total case in the beginning is 100% increase whereas 2000 case out of 20 000 total case right now is only 10%. The reality is that it is still spreading at the official 2000 case per day rate.

What will happen is probably an uptick of detected case followed by more panic. But this will only be because there are more test kit available to detect almost already confirmed cases because they are already in the critical stage of pneumonia but remain unconfirmed due to lack of test kits.

 

[MP3Mike]

@KarenRei : Which fund has the most percentage of SpaceX ? I looked up the two of Ron Baron, which have both holdings of around 4.5%. Are there others ? Thanks for your info. (Bolding by me)

Actually updated data appears to show:

Baron Partners Fund Retail Shares (BPTRX) Top Portfolio Holdings: 5.15% (TSLA: 16.87%)
Baron Focused Growth Fund Retail Shares (BFGFX) Top Portfolio Holdings: 2.30% (TSLA: 14.46%)

 

[ninpb]

Bought a few at 755.

 

[Remus]

sorry if already posted.

Big Short’s Eisman Ends Bet Against Tesla, Calling It Cult-Like

Eisman covers. Appears to have covered in the recent past. Not to be confused with Einhorn.

And his betting on GM.

Genius

 

[Driver Dave]

Nader says look into “potential market manipulating” while engaging in actual market manipulating by just making stuff up.

 

[TradingInvest]

He didn't get into specifics, just complained about Musk promising things (he called it puffery) and how the price has gone up beyond any reason. So this has to be insider trading. He said he actually likes what Tesla is doing with EVs and solar energy but thinks this is all manipulation. He is clueless about the real manipulation of course.

Ralph Nader is not clueless. He is the one who is trying to do the real manipulation.

First he had major issues with Tesla's Autopilot, tried hard to get it banned. I said looks like he was shorting TSLA, many people didn't believe.

Now he is talking about the stock directly. Realize many shorts say "I actually like what Tesla is doing with EVs and solar energy... I just think the stock is over valued, I just think Elon Musk is a fraud, I just think bla bla bla". Check out famous short Whitney Tilson's interviews and writings. Whitney always start with "I actually like what Tesla is doing..."