Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

This site may earn commission on affiliate links.
Many asking what the news is.

This excellent post by @Fact Checking explains the pre-market surge IMO.


Today could be similar to February 4th.

I agree about the observation and the conclusion.
Now, if they let the price run up during the day, they would have to engineer another flash-crash towards the close (lowered circuit-breaker during the last 15 minutes).
During the day might be hard for them to hold the tide back - especially if the underwriters of the recent offering still play to hold it up?
This makes me wonder if it is more likely, that they will try to crash it at the open as there is a period of 10(?) minutes with relaxed circuit-breakers?
 
  • Informative
Reactions: Eugene Ash
As a coach I made sure my players understood that skill (and conditioning) were required to take advantage of luck.

And I’ve seen teams that are lacking on a skill and natural talent level beat the pant off better skilled and talented (and conditioned) teams due to determination, team dynamics (no ‘i’ in team) and yes, sometimes a bit of good ole fashion luck.

Let’s just close the discussion with; people make their own luck in any number of ways.
 
  • Like
Reactions: X Fan and lafrisbee
Rumor of Tesla Brazil Gigafactory Project Approaching by Government

Reading this has got me thinking about Elon's plans for Battery Day and rapid scaling to 2TWh.
To get to 2TWh he will most likely build a bunch more factories quite quickly all with integrated battery
He mentioned at some point that he wants a Gigafactory on every continent (except Antartica).

It seems South America is the logical next step because Africa/Australia are much less beneficial at this stage, and Brazil makes most sense because it is such a dominant country on South America. Elon won't announce any factories until he has secured agreements favourable to him, but I think it is quite clear the next phase of Tesla is rolling out vertically integrated factories all around the world as fast as possible.

I think all Gigafactories will have the chance to design a vehicle to attract talent. So I expect this year they will announce Gigafactory Brazil with a design studio.

I expect more rapidly than people realise, there will be factories started in South Africa (lithium supply is in Zimbabwe and Namibia), Australia (lots of raw materials there), another in Texas as hinted, and perhaps another European factory.

The other aspect of Gigafactories that is probably missed is that currently the Nevada factory has 50GWh capacity per year. To get to 2TWh that would be 40x increase over the Nevada factory capacity. Creating 40 more factories is not going to be as efficient as creating larger factories. I suspect they will try and make the battery capacity per factory closer to 200-400GWh/year, meaning that with just 5-10 super-Gigafactories they could reach the 2TWh/year.

So,

1 - Nevada
2 - Shanghai
3 - Berlin
4 - Brazil (Santa Catarina)
5 -Texas
6 - South Africa
7 - Australia (Adelaide would make an interesting middle point, but maybe Sydney or Perth)
8 - China 2 (Beijing)
9 - Europe 2 (Benelux/France/Poland/Germany)
10 - Central America (Mexico?)

This will get them to 2TWh, over the next 7 years. I suspect this is what Battery Day will announce, with something specific like the next factory in Brazil.

Ark's 22,000 golden goose share price target will be a joke if all this comes to pass as Elon is aiming for.
 
Got some good techniques for pushing short term gains into future year(s)? (I can think of some possibly bad ones.....but...)
All my TSLA is taxable. I keep a spreadsheet with the buy dates for every lot and compute the expected tax per share for each lot, switching between short- and long-term automatically. When it comes time to trim some shares, it at least gives you a plan of how to do it with minimal tax hit.
 
  • Informative
  • Like
Reactions: ggr and Eugene Ash
No one retires as early as 65 anymore.

I suppose it depends on how you define "retire" Personally I will be leaving paid employment at 55 thanks to my TSLA investment within my Pension, (accessible from age 55) putting me in a position of financial independence to pursue my hobbies, interests, and travel.

But maybe I'm just lazy! ;)
 
This is a rumor. Not confirmed and tbh hard to believe. A different form factor would mean a ton of changes and challenges.
Elon mentioned they would be getting "modules" from CATL, not cells, so it would be fairly easy to design modules made up of prismatic cells to fit right in existing battery housings, especially because cooling doesn't need to be as aggressive with LiFePO4.
 
Rumor of Tesla Brazil Gigafactory Project Approaching by Government

Reading this has got me thinking about Elon's plans for Battery Day and rapid scaling to 2TWh.
To get to 2TWh he will most likely build a bunch more factories quite quickly all with integrated battery
He mentioned at some point that he wants a Gigafactory on every continent (except Antartica).

It seems South America is the logical next step because Africa/Australia are much less beneficial at this stage, and Brazil makes most sense because it is such a dominant country on South America. Elon won't announce any factories until he has secured agreements favourable to him, but I think it is quite clear the next phase of Tesla is rolling out vertically integrated factories all around the world as fast as possible.

I think all Gigafactories will have the chance to design a vehicle to attract talent. So I expect this year they will announce Gigafactory Brazil with a design studio.

I expect more rapidly than people realise, there will be factories started in South Africa (lithium supply is in Zimbabwe and Namibia), Australia (lots of raw materials there), another in Texas as hinted, and perhaps another European factory.

The other aspect of Gigafactories that is probably missed is that currently the Nevada factory has 50GWh capacity per year. To get to 2TWh that would be 40x increase over the Nevada factory capacity. Creating 40 more factories is not going to be as efficient as creating larger factories. I suspect they will try and make the battery capacity per factory closer to 200-400GWh/year, meaning that with just 5-10 super-Gigafactories they could reach the 2TWh/year.

So,

1 - Nevada
2 - Shanghai
3 - Berlin
4 - Brazil (Santa Catarina)
5 -Texas
6 - South Africa
7 - Australia (Adelaide would make an interesting middle point, but maybe Sydney or Perth)
8 - China 2 (Beijing)
9 - Europe 2 (Benelux/France/Poland/Germany)
10 - Central America (Mexico?)

This will get them to 2TWh, over the next 7 years. I suspect this is what Battery Day will announce, with something specific like the next factory in Brazil.

Ark's 22,000 golden goose share price target will be a joke if all this comes to pass as Elon is aiming for.
The raw materials access, price and quality will be major points. Brazil and Australia both have easy access for several crucial raw materials, lithium access for Brazil in country and from Chile/Bolivia, for example plus nickel and cobalt maybe being constraints make some mine/refinement proximity an issue for one or more battery factories. In South Africa, for example, they may well want some raw materials but the domestic market can barely support a CKD plant.

Mexico, which is in North America BTW, is certain to have a major plant soon because it has one of the very best locations for export, allowing duty free import to almost all of the Americas plus favorable terms for Europe.
 
Do we know what the latest short interest is?
Latest was 22,752,621 shares, but that was Jan 31st. If the downward trend in shares shorted continues then Feb 14 might have been something like 20MM shares shorted, but we will have to wait a bit longer to find out.

But while shares shorted has been declining the value at risk has risen significantly as the stock price has appreciated more quickly and might have been ~$16B last Friday, setting another ATH (July 15th was $10.5, broken Nov 15th at $10.8, then Dec 31st, Jan 15th and Jan 31st set successive ATH for the short interest value at risk).
 
I'm targeting 40. At least have the option to quit my job and travel the world. I give it an 80% chance of happening.
I've been retired since 43. That was 20 years ago. My wife just says I'm chronically unemployed and basically lazy. Sadly she loves her job so most of my traveling is on my own.