Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Singuy]

That’s a pretty false blanket statement.
My family and friends who are doctors and nurses surely don’t all think that.
For someone working in the hospital, I would also expect the spelling of the pathogen to be correct. It is pseudomonas, not pseudomonous.

Host: "Are we over reacting"
Dr. Drew : Yes Yes
Host: I hear this from doctors left and right".

Our infectious disease specialist still thinks it's a nothing burger. Make sure your family members who are doctors are in patient MDs and not family practice or out pt MDs. Those MDs may just follow what the media tells them.

 

[mongo]

Anybody have any idea what this is about?

View attachment 515920

NJ is gonna <3 teslas!

Tesla To Install V3 Superchargers On New Jersey Turnpike

56 Supercharger stalls, plus infrastructure (but not the actual charge equipment) for 24 3rd party providers.

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

Nine new countries reported cases of COVID-19 yesterday: Brazil, Denmark, Estonia, Georgia, Greece, Norway, Pakistan, Romania, and North Macedonia, according to the WHO's latest situation report.

 

[Evoforce]

Anybody have any idea what this is about?

View attachment 515920

NJ is gonna <3 teslas!

Will you stop spreading good news...We are concentrating and fixated on bad news. Do not detour!

 

[Fact Checking]

Well, today's FINRA report (Reg. SHO compliance) confirms what I discussed here this morning: the 13% plunge today included a high proportion of naked short selling. Here's a chart of Feb-to-date, with days with the 'Uptick Rule' in effect highlighted in RED:

View attachment 515834
More analysis later, but I'll get you started with these comments:

• Today Thu, Feb 27, 2020 saw 4.64% FINRA "Short Exempt Volume" compared to "Short Volume" (this is short selling exempt from the SEC 'Uptick Rule')
  
• This proportion of naked short selling allowed by the Market Makers Exemption* represents the 116th percentile rank compared to short exempt volume in Feb 2020 when the 'Uptick Rule' has not been in effect. This is abuse of priviledge
  
• Notice that today is exactly 13 trading sessions since the last event of unusual short exempt volume (Feb 5, 2020)
• As I have discussed here before, 13 days is exactly the reporting period allowed for MMs Failure-to-Deliver (FTD) reports, allowing max. mischief by MMs
• The SEC has demonstrated clearly now that they intention to NOT enforce their own 'Madoff rule' governing Market Makers Short Selling Exemption - Regulation SHO (Rule 201) when it comes to TSLA. This is further dereliction of duty by the SEC, and is particularly egregious given their recent zeal in litgation against Tesla.

More analysis later. In the meantime, listen to Uncle Jack on parallels to 2000/08.

Regards,
Lodger

* To claim the exemption, the rule also says that compensation arrangements of persons who are engaged in market making must be designed not to reward or incentivize prohibited proprietary trading.Feb 4, 2014

I agree, the moment the drop started it was abusive power-selling, similar to the infamous incident at the $960 ATH - but with more plausible deniability, with cover given by the coronavirus and the fake China sales report by Bloomberg.

So yes, IMO options writing Nasdaq Market Makers performed a major (and illegal) bear raid, with the naked shorting of millions of TSLA shares - even after the uptick rule was in effect.

This is flaunting SEC authority and regulations to such a degree that it might make sense to file an investor complaint if you held any TSLA shares, long calls or short puts:

SEC Investor Complaint Form​

In the description, beyond the accurate identification of accounts and sums, I'd write something like:

On or about February 27, one or more Nasdaq Market Makers launched an illegal market manipulation scheme using "naked short selling", to illegally profit from proprietary trading positions they took in the TSLA options market.

This scheme is visible through the abnormally high "short sale exempt" transactions that happened 13 trading days after an anomalous spike in "failure to deliver (FTD)" shares indicative of naked short selling.

The market manipulation was performed via very aggressive sell orders that bid down the price not with the intent to sell effectively, but to mark down the price illegally to trigger a self-fulfilling cascade of selling - which is inconsistent with any non-proprietary "market making" role which should be fundamentally price neutral.

See a summary of events and anomalies at this link:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4517259/

As an investor I was financially harmed by this illegal market manipulation scheme.

Estimated harm to all TSLA investors is probably in excess of 15 billion dollars in lost market cap, in addition to unknown losses by long call and short put options holders in the TSLA options market."​

It makes sense to file a SEC complaint even if you think the current SEC administration won't take enforcement action: these complaints get archived, the transaction logs don't go away, maybe a potential Sanders administration, reportedly not a big friend of Wall Street, will give the SEC some real enforcement officials.

 

[goinfraftw]

Google Trends (2004 - Present)

If you hover/track over "flu" searches, you'll see that each year and, especially, the spike-y years has a significant drop in March after reaching a high in Jan/Feb. Presumably, when it starts getting warmer. If someone has a better understanding of viruses and heat, that'd be great to get insight on.

Zoom in specifically on the "flu" and "coronavirus" and you'll see inc/dec in both are synonymous with each other since the start in the US on 1/18/2020. As "flu" searches have gone down, so have "coronavirus" searches.

Note: 2009 was the year of the "swine flu".

 

[Nuclear Fusion]

It makes sense to file a SEC complaint even if you think the current SEC administration will do nothing: these complaints get archived, the transaction logs don't go away, maybe a potential Sanders administration, reportedly not a big friend of Wall Street, will give the SEC some real enforcement officials.

Yep. Thanks to 40 years of neoliberalism, the SEC has been heavily neutered.
Sanders is the only chance to give the SEC real teeth

 

[rxlawdude]

Host: "Are we over reacting"
Dr. Drew : Yes Yes
Host: I hear this from doctors left and right".

Our infectious disease specialist still thinks it's a nothing burger. Make sure your family members who are doctors are in patient MDs and not family practice or out pt MDs. Those MDs may just follow what the media tells them.

Except the inpatient physicians and hospitals have not seen many (any) patients at all, so it's not surprising they are not nervous. I do believe medical care here in the US is better than some of the countries where the death rate is ~2%. But with hospitals closing over the past few years, fewer inpatient beds are available IF this virus turns out to be nasty. The insidious thing about this virus is that it's spreading from apparently non-symptomatic people. That's different than the flu.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Am I the only here feeling good about the fact that Tesla raised $2.3B from a stock sale last week?

What? Where? I heard about one on Feb 4...

 

[Singuy]

Except the inpatient physicians and hospitals have not seen many (any) patients at all, so it's not surprising they are not nervous. I do believe medical care here in the US is better than some of the countries where the death rate is ~2%. But with hospitals closing over the past few years, fewer inpatient beds are available IF this virus turns out to be nasty. The insidious thing about this virus is that it's spreading from apparently non-symptomatic people. That's different than the flu.

Health professionals look at the data. They do the exact opposite of determining how infections a bug is by "experience". Those are not very scientific data sets and are meaningless to them.

 

[rxlawdude]

Health professionals look at the data. They do the exact opposite of determining how infections a bug is by "experience". Those are not very scientific data sets and are meaningless to them.

I know. I'm one.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Market is in panic mode ... Buffet & I are buying the dip Bought today will buy some more tomorrow ... incrementally

Hope that Buffet comes with a sneeze guard...

 

[Singuy]

I agree, the moment the drop started it was abusive power-selling, similar to the infamous incident at the $960 ATH - but with more plausible deniability, with cover given by the coronavirus and the fake China sales report by Bloomberg.

So yes, IMO options writing Nasdaq Market Makers performed a major (and illegal) bear raid, with the naked shorting of millions of TSLA shares - even after the uptick rule was in effect.

This is flaunting SEC authority and regulations to such a degree that it might make sense to file an investor complaint if you held any TSLA shares, long calls or short puts:

SEC Investor Complaint Form​

In the description, beyond the accurate identification of accounts and sums, I'd write something like:

On or about February 27, one or more Nasdaq Market Makers launched an illegal market manipulation scheme using "naked short selling", to illegally profit from proprietary trading positions they took in the TSLA options market.

This scheme is visible through the abnormally high "short sale exempt" transactions that happened 13 trading days after an anomalous spike in "failure to deliver (FTD)" shares indicative of naked short selling.

The market manipulation was performed via very aggressive sell orders that bid down the price not with the intent to sell effectively, but to mark down the price illegally - which is inconsistent with any non-proprietary "market making" role.

See a summary of events and anomalies at this link:

https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/posts/4517259/

As an investor I was financially harmed by this illegal market manipulation scheme.

Estimated harm to all investors is probably in excess of 15 billion dollars in lost market cap, in addition to unknown losses by long call and short put options holders in the TSLA options market."​

It makes sense to file a SEC complaint even if you think the current SEC administration won't take enforcement action: these complaints get archived, the transaction logs don't go away, maybe a potential Sanders administration, reportedly not a big friend of Wall Street, will give the SEC some real enforcement officials.

So where are the MM now? Surely they can't be paying out all these puts contract by tomorrow closing right?

 

[goinfraftw]

Also, just a heads up while I'm at it... TSLA v. Tesla Google Trends (2004-Present)

The only other time in the past 5 years where TSLA paced w/ Tesla (for multiple months) was in 8/2018 - 10/2018...the Model 3 ramp. Gigafactory 3 and Model Y are happening, or at least have been rumored, since December...which coincided with the stock price run-up. Also, the Paris Climate Accord started on 1/1/2020.

 

[XHabjab]

Some good pivot points to keep in mind over the next few days.

50-day Simple Moving Average $601.74
200-day Simple Moving Average $341.79
.382 Fibonacci Retracement $666.45
.50 Fibonacci Retracement $572.99
.618 Fibonacci Retracement $479.54
52 Week High $968.99

TSLA Pivot Points, Technical Analysis and Moving Averages, Tesla Inc - CMLViz.com

Current Toyota (TM) Market Cap: 185.6B @ $131.40 ea
Current TSLA Market Cap: 125.2B @ $679.00 ea
TSLA stock price to overcome TM Market Cap at current price: $1006.51

 

[Fact Checking]

The insidious thing about this virus is that it's spreading from apparently non-symptomatic people. That's different than the flu.

Health professionals look at the data. They do the exact opposite of determining how infections a bug is by "experience". Those are not very scientific data sets and are meaningless to them.

I know. I'm one.

I'm sorry, but if you are a health professional then you'd be aware of the following facts:

• All influenza strains have documented cases of asymptomatic transmission as well - like almost all viruses it's actually pretty common:
  • Does Influenza Transmission Occur from Asymptomatic Infection or Prior to Symptom Onset?
    
  • "One in three influenza-infected individuals is asymptomatic"
  • "The proportion of transmission by asymptomatic individuals, defined as Theta (Τ) in transmission models, is assumed to be one-third to one-half that of influenza-infected symptomatic individuals."
• The scientific question is not whether asymptomatic transmission occurs (it does and this is entirely normal), but its probability (Theta) - and there's no data to indicate that NCov-19 asymptomatic transmission probability goes beyond the expected range.

Frankly, talking about asymptomatic and presymptomatic transmission as some sort of "insidious" property is not just extremely ignorant, but also unbecoming of any health professional with a training in epidemiology...

 

[azaz]

Futures are blood red, buckle in for some volatility

 

[nightfly]

It's not the size of the pin that pops the bubble that matters - it's the size of the bubble. We are only now back to Oct 2019 price levels. retesting Jan 2018 levels is likely in the next few months.

 

[Fact Checking]

It's not the size of the pin that pops the bubble that matters - it's the size of the bubble. We are only now back to Oct 2019 price levels. retesting Jan 2018 levels is likely in the next few months.

Nonsense, TSLA was undervalued even at $900 levels, discounted cash flow based fair value is $943:

Tesla (NasdaqGS:TSLA) - Share price, News & Analysis - Simply Wall St​

And that's a quant look-back valuation that ignores all the growth potential of Tesla...

Edit: agreed for the overall bull market.

 

[XHabjab]

Guy, I'll be honest with you. I'm kinda panicking. I honestly believe in the Tesla mission and the cars are awesome. But I just bought in at 900 and bought dips at 830 and 800. Probably got more than I should've and not really in the position to get more. Should I cut my losses? How much more is this going to drop?

Well, the main goal in investing is to buy low and sell high. In relative terms, you can also buy high and sell higher.

So, you own shares that you bought high and they have gone down in value. As long as you haven't sold them yet, you might be in a scary situation but you haven't lost anything yet.

I won't tell you what to do but here is my plan:
Smart: keep them until their value goes back up. Either sell some of them, all of them or keep them longer.
Dumb: sell them now, guaranteeing a loss via the concept of "buy high, sell low".

If you can't handle volatility, you shouldn't own the stock.
-- Elon Musk (paraphrased)

Personal experience, not advice...