Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[elasalle]

Market is in panic mode ... Buffet & I are buying the dip Bought today will buy some more tomorrow ... incrementally

 

[JRP3]

Take the long view people.

This too shall pass

As will we all.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I fully expect it to bounce off 420.69 as this is all a simulation.

I expect the SP to open near the Lower-BB tomorrow (currently ~$634), where we should find some firmer support.

Then we might ride the Lwr-BB down for awhile until this 'Coro-correction' bottoms out, but we shouldn't see the dramatic drops we have this week during the MM-cheating-assisted dive from the Upper- to the Lower-BB. FUDsters will be encourage. TMC Bird-watchers beware.

Cheers!

 

[jhm]

Oh crap... I just realized he meant when it drops back DOWN to 420.
Just maybe he is a time traveler.

If it goes back down to $420, Musk should just personally buy it out because it is worth way more than that.

 

[Artful Dodger]

We all have our challenges. As of today I am looking for a new broker, this is the third time that interactivebrokers.com disable my account access, claiming that I mistyped my password (which I never do, since I have a password manager).

Lars Kr. Lundin on Twitter

It may be because my browser of choice is Firefox (which only works with them in privacy mode - and IBKR seems to think I should use Chrome or their app) combined with SMS authentication.

My old broker (Comdirect.de) had no trading of TSLA options and higher fees, but at least their web-site worked.

Chrome in a VM? Seems like it might be worth the bother to get IB working properly.

 

[gene]

Uhh, 5% require the ICU

And who are the 5%? Most likely patients older than 65 yo based on the fatality reports.

Coronaviruses: Symptoms, treatments, and variants

I feel so much better, I am 64.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I’ll ride this down into hell, who’s with me?

Apparently, Big Carbon:

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[StealthP3D]

Welp, just got a text from mom making sure I was ok. Word of advice, don't tell your parents you own stock.

I imagine your mom is the good kind of "care bear" (because she loves you). My mom and dad are both gone but they worked hard, had good jobs their entire lives and lived simply with zero extravagances, and were very frugal with money.

However, individual stocks were too scary for them. But that didn't stop them from cashing out pensions and putting the proceeds with a "professional" who wore polyester suits, went to the same church and invested their money in boring "safe" investments. They died in their mid-eighties having sold the middle-class family home to live in a premanufactured double-wide in a retirement park full of the same. They didn't even own the land underneath. They could never understand why I was doing so well. Every time I tried to explain the power of stocks, long-term compounding, the advantages of buying investments without fees or loads built into them, the advantages of buying fewer great stocks instead of funds that had a little bit of everything in them they would smile and nod, with looks of awe in their eyes, as if what I was doing was too fantastic to be real. But they felt more comfortable with their God-loving, polyester suit-wearing investment advisor who held their hand and made them feel good about their 2-3% average returns. They would have done much better had they listened to me and not cashed out their very well run State pension funds and invested their remaining savings in S&P 500 index funds. But they did things their way because they had the guidance of God (and they only wished that I did). My 1/3 inheritance when they died was < $40K. I'm definitely not complaining, just pointing out that, given their frugal spending nature, their lifetime of earnings and lack of bad or expensive habits they should have had a net worth measured in the millions. Most Americans have very limited financial skills or understanding.

Regarding the concerns of others who might be concerned about my financial well-being, with markets crashing and all, Charles Schwab has a feature that allows me to compare our brokerage account net worth over various time periods. At the close of the market today I used the one-month comparison and learned we were up over $274,000 today vs. 30 days ago. And the longer the time period I chose, the bigger that number was as far back as the comparison tool would let me see (2009). And we only take money out, never put more in.

This is the power of looking at the big picture, buying good companies and not worrying about temporary setbacks like the Coronavirus while you let your (hopefully great) investments compound over time. I've had flat to down years a number of times but the good and great years more than make up for them so I simply don't worry if my account value fluctuates quite a bit from year to year. Most of the "fluctuation" is very uplifting overall.

 

[Fact Checking]

And 20% need ICU.

Where do people get such doomer nonsense from??

Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

Non-Hubei mainland China:
TOTAL: 12,910, serious+critical: 319 (2.4%)

International cases:
TOTAL: 4,544, serious+critical: 106 (2.3%)​

I.e. even assuming that all "serious" patients require intensive care (which is not true), that's only a ~2.3% ICU rate of detected cases, which is overestimated in a second way too, because there's a lot of undetected mild cases.

The worst medical condition 95%+ of the quarantined coronavirus patients are suffering from is "extreme boredom".

WHat is 20% of the whole US population. How many beds do we have? doubling time is ~3 days. Do the math.

Of course that'd be fear mongering. In real life. Measures taken by the government will slow it down. So doubling time of a week. Now redo the math for your own opinion

Actually, it would be fearmongering because you simply made up that 20% figure.

It's fictional, not real, not the truth and complete bollocks.

 

[traxila]

Simple. When you are trying to time the market you have to be right about both the direction and the timing. Your timing was a bit early and then you lost conviction in your guess. I knew the market would have a correction in the near-term, I just didn't know if it was going to be the next day or after it had run up another 20%. In other words, you weren't "so right". Especially when you got scared of losses and lost your conviction that your original guess was right. Nobody said it was easy to time the market.

On the other hand, if your strategy is long-term buy and hold, you only have to be right about the long-term direction. When you use this strategy, for example with TSLA, you do it because you have a conviction that it will appreciate over the next several years. That the company will grow and expand, that earnings will rise and the business will keep getting more valuable over time. You don't have to worry about temporary effects from flu viruses or how the market will react to that. It's much easier when you only have to be right on one out of two things, the direction of the move, not the exact timing of the move.

Yes, 95 percent of my holdings are in long term accounts. Obviously what you write is true. But I like to gamble, so I do have a short term trading account. Was doing pretty well the past few months (not as well as my long term, which is mostly TSLA). But I admit I invest a lot of emotional currency in it. I feel good when I nail trades. Feel very bad when I screw it up.

The main reason it exists is to take advantage of downturns in the market, hence my special feelings of devastation as I allowed it to be gutted when it was supposed to shine. I have issues...

First world problems.

Hope this Coronavirus goes away. Not because of the market. I don’t want to lose anyone to it. But it is here to stay I believe.

 

[Artful Dodger]

This was obviously a coordinated attack to create panic.

I’m not sure I understand this 13 day rule. How are these crooks able to take advantage of the 13 day rule?

Reporting "Failure-to-Deliver" equities by a Broker is required by the SEC only if the FTD remains open for 13 consecutive trading days.

If the broker CAN find the shares they sold WITHOUT locating them within 13 days, then they do not EVER have to report the crime.

If they ARE forced to report an sale as an FTD, there are almost no consequences on the books, and those are never inforced. Imma leave the rest to your google-foo now that you have some srch terms... Searching my post history here will give you more. This is a long-standing issue, since Rule 201 was created in 2008-ish.

Paging @Hock1

Cheers!

 

[Causalien]

Where do people get such doomer nonsense from??

Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

International cases:

TOTAL: 4,544
serious/critical: 106​

I.e. even assuming that all "serious" patients require intensive care (which is not true), that's only a 2.3% ICU rate of detected cases, which is overestimated in a second way too, because there's a lot of undetected mild cases.



Actually, it's fearmongering because you simply made up that 20% figure ...

Another snapshot.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

There are also several other studies of different groups of different ICU rate and CFR. Like 7% ICU rate etc etc. When you are 40 and above the ICU rate increases a lot. ANd then you get IRAN where the young and healthy are dying off left and right while the elites in the government are also dying off left and right.

Then again, I do not believe in any stats coming out from China.

The only conclusion I can make out of this mess right now is that we won't know the real case fatality rate and ICU rate until the final tally years later. As the expontential growth of new patients will make the ICU and CFR rate seem small by comparison as you continuously introduce non severe case into the calculation.

Anyway, if you look at these stats individually it is alarming, but there are just as many other reports coming out that says this is even milder than the flu. So YMMV, do your own diligence and believe what you want. But everyone need to look at both side of the spectrum and not just headlessly heed only one type of voice.

By the way, the article you point to says 14% Gets Severe disease, causing breathlessness and pneumonia. That's what I mean by ICU. A bed in a hospital. 5% critical means they are about to die. Forced ventilation or ECMO. This for me is one step above ICU.

Anyway, I might have gotten the definition wrong, but when I said 20% needing ICU, I mean you need a bed in the hospital and the support and care of the medical staff. But if your definition of ICU mean the 5% case of (you are about to die if we don't hook you up to a machine) then ya. You are right.

 

[Evoforce]

The thing is... this downturn is manufactured. It is real because they have scared many into selling. A barrage of negative. You can have 10 positives and bring on one negative and that is what this world thrives on. Like it or not, it is easy to manipulate the masses. It is especially easy to manipulate the stock market because everyone is taught the same playbook. If this... than do that. If that...then do this.

We have seen past results of letting programs (computers) run on parameters of buying and selling and the human trained are the same. I know other complexities exist but I feel that is the basic core. The stock casino needs to keep turmoil to run the betting up and betting on the way down. That is how they make their money.

Right now I am frustrated that their are so many sheep... I have to admit though, I like it when the sheep are buying! Exception is when I want to buy low! My dry powder used today just burnt my fingers $75 a share up to this point. Funny that is what I am most concerned about instead of how much the rest of my portfolio has temporarily gone *poof*

 

[dmunjal]

Some good pivot points to keep in mind over the next few days.

50-day Simple Moving Average $601.74
200-day Simple Moving Average $341.79
.382 Fibonacci Retracement $666.45
.50 Fibonacci Retracement $572.99
.618 Fibonacci Retracement $479.54
52 Week High $968.99

TSLA Pivot Points, Technical Analysis and Moving Averages, Tesla Inc - CMLViz.com

 

[Fact Checking]

Another snapshot.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

Then again, I do not believe in any stats coming out from China.

Context matters for heaven's sake: that ICU rate is strongly distorted by Hubei patients, where even by Chinese estimates they are undersampling the true number of infected by an order of magnitude.

I.e. in Hubei, due to the overloaded hospitals, only the most serious cases get admitted into hospital, the other 90% of much milder cases aren't even captured. This significantly skews the observed ICU rate upwards.

See the non-Hubei and international data I cited, the ICU rate is lower than 2.3%-2.4% ...

There's also the factor @KarenRei mentioned, that fast spreading diseases get milder with distance and time, because the mildest strains keep the most hosts walking and infecting others undetected.

When you are 40 and above the ICU rate increases a lot.

That's actually true of the common flu as well - but it's beside the point, because you made the doomer argument that 20% of the U.S. population would overload the health care system. That number is 100% utter nonsense, the real figure is "less than 2.3%-2.4%". (Which is still a lot, especially with a fast spreading virus with limited herd immunity, no vaccine and severe reactions in elderly patients.)

Sorry, your numbers were off by an order of magnitude, they simply cannot be saved. Just retract them.

 

[Singuy]

Another snapshot.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30183-5/fulltext

There are also several other studies of different groups of different ICU rate and CFR. Like 7% ICU rate etc etc. When you are 40 and above the ICU rate increases a lot. ANd then you get IRAN where the young and healthy are dying off left and right while the elites in the government are also dying off left and right.

Then again, I do not believe in any stats coming out from China.

The only conclusion I can make out of this mess right now is that we won't know the real case fatality rate and ICU rate until the final tally years later. As the expontential growth of new patients will make the ICU and CFR rate seem small by comparison as you continuously introduce non severe case into the calculation.

Anyway, if you look at these stats individually it is alarming, but there are just as many other reports coming out that says this is even milder than the flu. So YMMV, do your own diligence and believe what you want. But everyone need to look at both side of the spectrum and not just headlessly heed only one type of voice.

By the way, the article you point to says 14% Gets Severe disease, causing breathlessness and pneumonia. That's what I mean by ICU. A bed in a hospital. 5% critical means they are about to die. Forced ventilation or ECMO. This for me is one step above ICU.

Anyway, I might have gotten the definition wrong, but when I said 20% needing ICU, I mean you need a bed in the hospital and the support and care of the medical staff. But if your definition of ICU mean the 5% case of (you are about to die if we don't hook you up to a machine) then ya. You are right.

I work in a hospital and have pt with pneumonia on almost every floor. Out ICU floors are only reserved for extreme severe pts and death rate is less than 10% as most people recover. And people here have REAL infections like MRSA and pseudomonous which actually kills people. Death rate from these infections are actually in double digits percentages, not less than 5%. Ever wonder why all health professionals think this is a nothing burger? This is why.

 

[KSilver2000]

I work in a hospital and have pt with pneumonia on almost every floor. Out ICU floors are only reserved for extreme severe pts and death rate is less than 10% as most people recover. And people here have REAL infections like MRSA and pseudomonous which actually kills people. Death rate from these infections are actually in double digits percentages, not less than 5%. Ever wonder why all health professionals think this is a nothing burger? This is why.

That’s a pretty false blanket statement.
My family and friends who are doctors and nurses surely don’t all think that.
For someone working in the hospital, I would also expect the spelling of the pathogen to be correct. It is pseudomonas, not pseudomonous.

 

[EVNow]

Haven't posted in a while.

So the SP went to 900+ twice and is now below 700. We have a pandemic that might cause recession - just when Tesla is ready to expand. Oh, I had my first Tesla service experience - and HW3 upgrade. I will write about it some day - and link here.

Other than that pretty uneventful.

 

[JusRelax]

Anybody have any idea what this is about?

NJ is gonna <3 teslas!

 

[Artful Dodger]

All investors can do is to hold on and buy more so that there are fewer shares to purchase when the stock price increases rapidly.

Yeah, it don't help. MMs ability to create an unlimited number of shares via naked short selling violates the market prinicple of supply and demand. Further, MMs enrich themselves by skirting the rules and usurping the sole, soverign right of the Corporation to issue equity in its name. The system is rigged by the 'Market Makers.