Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Mkorpal]

Technically & Objectively Appraising the Market:
1. I see the market being artificially up due to gov't actions
2. Unemployment claims & more state shutdowns haven't been priced in
3. Early stages & no bottom in sight

Thoughts?

Nobody knows. It's all guessing.

 

[larmor]

So, with Tesla making ventilators, that makes them an essential business. I think that means that even though they probably can't manufacture cars, they can still make money from ventilator production, lessening the economic blow to Tesla in particular--is that right?

Besides the experience that tesla/spacex has with hvac systems, making ventilators would likely exclude government internvention and commandeering of tesla under the defense production act. So for tesla's part, it was also a strategic move besides the obvious need and Musk's inherent need to rise to a challenge.

 

[StealthP3D]

Technically & Objectively Appraising the Market:
1. I see the market being artificially up due to gov't actions

There is no such thing as the market being "artificially" up. Either it's up or it's not.

 

[StealthP3D]

Besides the experience that tesla/spacex has with hvac systems, making ventilators would likely exclude government internvention and commandeering of tesla under the defense production act. So for tesla's part, it was also a strategic move besides the obvious need and Musk's inherent need to rise to a challenge.

Nothing precludes the Government from commandeering Tesla during an emergency. Making ventilators doesn't hold any legal sway when it comes to government powers.

 

[MP3Mike]

For the people that disagree about the wash sale rule, say @PlaidCPA, you should read the IRS rules:

Wash Sales
You cannot deduct losses from sales or trades of stock or securities in a wash sale unless the loss was incurred in the ordinary course of your business as a dealer in stock or securities.

A wash sale occurs when you sell or trade stock or securities at a loss and within 30 days before or after the sale you:

1. Buy substantially identical stock or securities,
   
   
2. Acquire substantially identical stock or securities in a fully taxable trade,
   
   
3. Acquire a contract or option to buy substantially identical stock or securities, or
   
   
4. Acquire substantially identical stock for your individual retirement arrangement (IRA) or Roth IRA.

If you sell stock and your spouse or a corporation you control buys substantially identical stock, you also have a wash sale.

Note it doesn't matter if the buy/sale is in the same account, at the same broker, or even a different account type.

 

[LJS22]

$100b!

 

[dc_h]

As far as I know analyst consensus is 1M.

Adam Jonas says jobless will be up from 510,000 to 5 million. I don’t think there’s any realistic consensus. If anybody knows, they’re not saying and the White House even asked states to downplay results. The quality of data is unknown and the data is unknown and market expectations of the unknown data is unknown. They could announce 2 million claims and the market could go up or down 2000 points. Selling hedged volatility for traders is probably the only sure bet.

 

[MaChiMiB]

What is Tesla building next to the Model Y site?

If you watch Wuwas latest video, you can clearly see that piledrivers do their work on the most south east part of Teslas property.

In this screenshot you can see the Model Y area on the left side of the road and some new sugar going on the right side.

I always thought that this will be a parking lot for employees and/or for produced cars. But the piledriving activity there suggests that something will be constructed there. Maybe a multi-storey car park, but maybe something else...

Never seen any leaked construction plans for a building on this not insignificant area. We didn't see this for the power station and steam buildings either, but those are way smaller.

So I'd say the GF3 layout/plan is probably legit, genuine and the latest version:

In this quote you have to switch the Model Y label with the "?". And ironically right where that "?" originally is (right on the "?" not the building beneath it), the new piledriving is going on.

Here's an out-dated satellite overview : Google Maps

Anyone got an idea what Tesla could build there?

Edit: here's an overview

 

[dc_h]

Semantically, you are right, but who in the right mind to sell on tiny loss and buy back for tiny gain within a short period? The whole idea of wash sale is trying to claim the huge loss, and reset the position aiming for future gain, and the regulation prohibits traders to take that advantage.

A 401 and IRA investor can get in and out.

 

[PlaidCPA]

For the people that disagree about the wash sale rule, say @PlaidCPA, you should read the IRS rules:



Note it doesn't matter if the buy/sale is in the same account, at the same broker, or even a different account type.

I don't disagree. I agree completely. I dislike comments that have nothing to do on this forum. It is turning into a chat room that takes 4 hours a day to go through each day.

 

[Nocturnal]

Technically & Objectively Appraising the Market:
1. I see the market being artificially up due to gov't actions
2. Unemployment claims & more state shutdowns haven't been priced in
3. Early stages & no bottom in sight

Thoughts?

I see #1 as the market reacting to the stimulus but not accounting for the actual economic footing. 2. I think they have to a point, but not all.

This bump will not be sustainable in the near term IMO. It took China 2 months of authoritarian lock down to be able to open Wuhan up. Considering Americans can't be locked up in the same way, and we clearly aren't as compliant in doing it on our own for the greater good, I don't see it being that fast here. Even then, say it was 2 months. The clock started in Seattle a couple weeks ago, NY last week, Nola this week. "Clocks" may not have started everywhere for another few weeks. The economy will stay iffy at least until displaced workers find other employment or a real vaccine/treatment is rolled out.

I don't know about you guys, but I have zero faith in the competence of Congress to actually help small business. We might see a majority of independent restaurants/bars etc. vanish from our economy. US cities that rely on tourism or business travel will be damaged for some time.

I disagree on 3 though. I think there is a bottom in sight and we are in the middle stage.

 

[space_s3x]

I clicked on Doug DeMuro's Model Y video again to see how many views does it have so far. 1.3 million views in exactly 24 hours. It's #14 trending right now.
As a bonus, youtube showed me a Ford ad at the beginning of the video (pushing very favorable loan terms). So Ford is paying Doug for making a glowing review of Model Y and Tesla doesn't have to spend a dime.

 

[StarFoxisDown!]

Hmmmm are we capped at 550 today? Tesla and macro's have noticeably diverged over the past 30 mins.

Edit: Yup we're definitely capped for the day. Oh well

Still a 8% doesn't feel all that special when the the DOW is up nearly 6%

 

[wipster]

Sorry for perhaps a stupid question, but do any of our dependable posters have a reasonably good estimate of what worldwide delivery and production will be for the 1st quarter? Lot of positive variables this time with Y production & deliveries in the US and model 3 in China. I'm going to need to sell some and I'm wondering if the 1st qtr P&D #'s are going to drive the SP much higher than $550.

Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

EDIT: Disregard my request, there is another thread that addresses it. Thanks mblakele!

 

[StealthP3D]

I clicked on Doug DeMuro's Model Y video again to see how many views does it have so far. 1.3 million views in exactly 24 hours. It's #14 trending right now.
As a bonus, youtube showed me a Ford ad at the beginning of the video (pushing very favorable loan terms). So Ford is paying Doug for making a glowing review of Model Y and Tesla doesn't have to spend a dime.

Beautiful!

Elon might not be thought of as a "people" person but that is only because he sees right through most people. He understands what makes most people tick and how they respond to various stimuli. Take this Ford ad for example:

Sure, it's an ad. It will encourage a lot of people to go in and buy a Ford. But it also has a downside and Elon gets this. He sees how "pimping" your wares like that causes subtle damage to the brand image. Ford is trying to get you to buy their product. The unwritten but obvious statement this makes is the product doesn't sell itself. People get this. And Elon gets that they get this, even if they only get it on a subconscious level.

And this is why I cringe inside every time someone acts like they know more than Elon when they say Tesla needs to advertise their cars. Teslas stand on their own merits and there is huge value in maintaining that perception, even if it's only on the subconscious level. It gives Tesla that extra bit of "cache" that other automakers can never get back.

 

[mblakele]

Sorry for perhaps a stupid question, but do any of our dependable posters have a reasonably good estimate of what worldwide delivery and production will be for the 1st quarter? Lot of positive variables this time with Y production & deliveries in the US and model 3 in China. I'm going to need to sell some and I'm wondering if the 1st qtr P&D #'s are going to drive the SP much higher than $550.

Thanks in advance for your thoughts.

I think the quarterly projections thread has the best existing conversation around P&D. For example:

Near-future quarterly financial projections

 

[Zero CO2]

I don't disagree. I agree completely. I dislike comments that have nothing to do on this forum. It is turning into a chat room that takes 4 hours a day to go through each day.

You can start by posting something useful and interesting

 

[wipster]

I think the quarterly projections thread has the best existing conversation around P&D. For example:

Near-future quarterly financial projections

Thanks, I'll check it out. Everybody, don't fill up this thread with answers if they can be found in another. I'm all for self moderation (for some things at least ;-))

 

[sparcs]

In this screenshot you can see the Model Y area on the left side of the road and some new sugar going on the right side.
View attachment 525535
I always thought that this will be a parking lot for employees and/or for produced cars. But the piledriving activity there suggests that something will be constructed there. Maybe a multi-storey car park, but maybe something else...

Never seen any leaked construction plans for a building on this not insignificant area. We didn't see this for the power station and steam buildings either, but those are way smaller.

I think that extra space is for warehousing. Not sure where to find the source of that info again. I'll post back if the info surfaces again.

 

[JRP3]

Nothing precludes the Government from commandeering Tesla during an emergency. Making ventilators doesn't hold any legal sway when it comes to government powers.

Related, specifically the comment by the NYGOP Chairman at the end

Perhaps the @Tesla plant in Buffalo owned by New York State and gifted to @elonmusk should be repurposed to manufacture ventilators and critical medical equipment as soon as humanly possible. Emergency times call fro drastic measures.

Assemblyman Ryan calls for Tesla to make ventilators in Buffalo