Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[RobStark]

A company needs a vision (and Tesla alone will not make every Elon's dreams a reality). Accelerating the shift to renewable energy is a good one (which, so far, covered everything Tesla has done). Building nano factories for biotech companies does not fit. This has to be a side project that is justified by the pandemic.

Tesla filed joint patent with CureVac on possibly revolutionary 'bioreactor for RNA' - Electrek

According to Fred's article Tesla applied for nano factory patents before Covid-19 through their German affiliate Tesla Grohmann.

So it looks like a project Tesla inherited from an independent Grohmann and Elon decided not to kill.

 

[Jack6591]

Tesla secures greater battery supply.

Tesla secures more batteries from LG Chem, says report - Electrek

 

[RobStark]

@mongo beat you to it.

Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the 2019-2020 Investors' Roundtable

To me the end result is still the same. Ford was in deep trouble, received massive loans (which at least one was govt backed) and I “think” they still owe taxpayers money even after all this time.

Tesla paid their government loan early because Elon could not stand the "welfare queen" attacks from shortiez and Republicans.

Ford is paying back their loan per original schedule.

Ford family had the foresight to see the financial crisis coming and took massive loans without government guarantees before the credit crunch.

They would have survived without government loans.

Maybe Ford Focus Electric and Ford Hybrids would have been cancelled without the government backed loan.

And several upgrades to the Ford cars like more efficient HVAC and lower emission manufacturing processes.

 

[SO16]

Tesla paid their government loan early because Elon could not stand the "welfare queen" attacks from shortiez and Republicans.

Ford is paying back their loan per original schedule.

Ford family had the foresight to see the financial crisis coming and took massive loans without government guarantees before the credit crunch.

They would have survived without government loans.

Maybe Ford Focus Electric and Ford Hybrids would have been cancelled without the government backed loan.

And several upgrades to the Ford cars like more efficient HVAC and lower emission manufacturing processes.

Bottom line. They still owe taxpayers.

 

[hobbes]

I appreciate Troy's numbers but like you I find the method quite strange (upping the estimate every month till the end of the quarter).

Did you even look at his estimate history??

 

[RobStark]

Bottom line. They still owe taxpayers.

Ford doesn't owe taxpayers.

They owe the banks.

Taxpayers only incur liability if Ford goes bankrupt.

Per original agreement.

It was a government backed loan not a loan from the government.

 

[jeewee3000]

Did you even look at his estimate history??

If you meant he isn't always "upping" but sometimes "downing" his estimates, you're right.

But that's what I meant: Troy shifts the estimate based on new information to arrive at a very close estimate EoQ. Which is - if you wouldn't do it for the peeps on social media out there but for yourself (=playing P&D reports/ER's) - a lot of extra work.

Just one estimate at EoQ would suffice, is my point. (But again, what works for him. I appreciate his input)

 

[Etna]

Jerome Guillen on LinkedIn: Quick respite after strong Q2 deliveries. The space alien did come | 42 comments

 

[SunCatcher]

Ford doesn't owe taxpayers.

They owe the banks.

Taxpayers only incur liability if Ford goes bankrupt.

Per original agreement.

It was a government backed loan not a loan from the government.

The next few years will see Ford, and the rest of the legacy automakers (American and foreign) go bankrupt, or bailed out by their governments. I'm calling it right here, right now. They're doomed.

 

[CyberDutchie]

I like your enthusiasm, but are you saying we might see a spike higher than $10k upon S&P inclusion, based on the fact that most TMC shareholders in your poll say they will not sell under $5000?

Then what caused the drop in March? The few percent of TMC shareholders with weak legs?

I’m afraid you are overestimating the total holdings of this community. And underestimating the difficulties of drawing conclusions from a unweighed poll with n=164.

Also, the way the poll question was phrased left a lot of room for error. At what price would you sell more than 63% of your shares?

The higher the price, the less chance I would sell 63% or more of my shares. Because I wouldn’t need to. Let’s say hypothetically you want $5 million in cash for retirement, and you are sitting on 2,000 shares. At $5000 share price my portfolio is worth $10 million and I would never have to sell more than 50%,

I think, the main question on a long term investors mind is: when do I need the cash, not at what price will I sell.

 

[elasalle]

Weekends are getting boring I want Monday fast ...

 

[lafrisbee]

Degiro has today moved TSLA to a higher risk category, which apparently means no margin allowed on TSLA.
At least thats how it was for my all-in tsla account there.
I wasn't using any margin, fortunately.

So? What does that mean to us non degiro, non risk, non margin people?

 

[Krugerrand]

As boasted by our local James Bond, I'll go a step further. I know TSLA is going to be a 10-bagger from here, sooner or later, if civilization doesn't shite the bed. The only open question is will it be a 100-bagger from here, as projected by @FrankSG's detailed and careful calculations.
My Tesla Investment Thesis 2.0: Tesla's Monopoly Potential

You might have to buy an archipelago.

Being entirely serious for a moment, I don’t know and have never known the final (detailed) outcome beyond — I win; we win.

I hadn’t imagined the current SP (beyond wistful daydreaming, what if...?) and I can’t imagine the final SP (beyond more wistful daydreaming, what if...?) when I’ll pack up my toys and move on. I’ll simply know it when it gets there.

Honestly, that’s how I move through life a lot, on feel and instinct. Have to or I wouldn’t be any good at what I do and I am very good at it - so my clients have said.

I’m not opposed to sitting down and getting analytical, logical and all that left brainy kind of stuff, but at some point I’ve *seen* enough evidence to just ‘go with it’. I saw enough years ago, but I understand others haven’t and so a detailed evaluation like Frank’s is invaluable for them. To me, it scares me a bit. It’s too much *seeing* all at once for me, which sounds froo-froo, crazy, stupid or wtf to most people.

I don’t like people in general, but I also don’t wish ill on them. I can only hope that some having found a new level of security and comfort with their recent monetary riches will do something worthy of their good fortune going forward.

Damn! Now I have to put myself on ignore.

 

[Tslynk67]

I'm honestly confused. What does the time of day have to do with whoopie?

My wife's kaput after 21:00, plus three teenage kids...

 

[graphilwar]

Being entirely serious for a moment, I don’t know and have never known the final (detailed) outcome beyond — I win; we win.

I hadn’t imagined the current SP (beyond wistful daydreaming, what if...?) and I can’t imagine the final SP (beyond more wistful daydreaming, what if...?) when I’ll pack up my toys and move on. I’ll simply know it when it gets there.

Honestly, that’s how I move through life a lot, on feel and instinct. Have to or I wouldn’t be any good at what I do and I am very good at it - so my clients have said.

I’m not opposed to sitting down and getting analytical, logical and all that left brainy kind of stuff, but at some point I’ve *seen* enough evidence to just ‘go with it’. I saw enough years ago, but I understand others haven’t and so a detailed evaluation like Frank’s is invaluable for them. To me, it scares me a bit. It’s too much *seeing* all at once for me, which sounds froo-froo, crazy, stupid or wtf to most people.

I don’t like people in general, but I also don’t wish ill on them. I can only hope that some having found a new level of security and comfort with their recent monetary riches will do something worthy of their good fortune going forward.

Damn! Now I have to put myself on ignore.

This is exactly what a cat would say.

 

[lafrisbee]

My wife's kaput after 21:00, plus three teenage kids...

So till about noon we should not drop in for a visit...

 

[TrendTrader007]

This is tremendous & terrific.. just fantastic analysis. Better analysis has never been done...

this was a statement of opinion-not analysis
i suggest improving your vocabulary

 

[Mo City]

I’m thinking Tesla ride-sharing may be a bigger deal SP-wise. It’s become a frequent ARK talking point - more so than FSD - and it sounds like they may have some inside info.

Think about Wall Street. They’re clueless about battery chemistry or production, but they sure think they understand Über and Lyft. I think they'll go bonkers ("Tesla takes on Über and Lyft with all-electric fleet").

I left that out because of my own personal doubts of Tesla's autonomy efforts over the next 12 months. I'm quite aware TSLA would go to another level if I'm wrong.

Confession: 2020.24.6 has chipped away at some of my doubts.

 

[jbcarioca]

I am sure most of us understand that "the best thing about having money is not having to worry about money" and it takes a lot of work to get there (thankfully, someone once told me there are two types of people that work 8 hours a day ,"people that made it and those that never will")
Hopefully my wife and I will live long enough to allow our kids to appreciate what we left behind for them.
Not buying an island, but we are visiting a few....

Sorry, I had to disagree. IME as net worth rises there tends to be more or less equal anxiety as there was negative results. Personally I have lived with both very negative net worth and very positive. Further I have started businesses that failed and started ones that made substantial profits. Today I am in positive territory and have zero debt. By most people's reckoning I should not worry at all. 'It just ain't true'. I spend at least eight hours a day poring over financial decisions and working constantly to optimize risk/reward. Everyone I personally know who si as well off as I am or more so still obsesses over financial decisions. In my career I have known a few billionaires and a few indigents. Really there is not too much difference, despite the world inciting that there is.

Factually one would think that poor people would worry about money more than wealthy ones. Factually poor people and wealthy people do spend money very differently, and that makes each tend to think the other type does not worry much about money. After all many wealthy ones imagine that laziness is the cause of poverty. Many poor ones think the wealthy ones were just lucky or cheated somehow.

On the other hand buying an island might end out making a profit but more often 'turns a large fortune into a small one'. I was very, very lucky on that score. The people who bought my island did not end out so well, nor did the company from which I bought it.
TSLA is certainly similar in that high volatility tends to produce euphoria and panic, depending. I have never sold a TSLA share since 2013 and do not plan todo so. Still euphoria and panic do persist. NOTE: I am not a gambler in any traditional sense. Still anybody who has invested in Brazil, the Bahamas, the UAE and Yemen among others, must be a gambler of sorts.

 

[Tslynk67]

Did you even look at his estimate history??

I think it's very reasonable to change estimation over time as more information comes to hand.

And if Q3 is 135-150k, with shareholder meeting and battery day, well. I'm looking to buy some LEAPS Moday, so...