Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StarFoxisDown!]

The discussion is about Standard and Poor's asking Tesla to issue more stock to increase liquidity to ameliorate the share price pop that will happen when $40+ Billion of TSLA needs to be bought by the index funds in about a week. According to Rob Maurer, S&P has previously asked companies being added to do that.

Yes I know the video you're talking about and maybe if Elon was a conventional CEO, he would accommodate the S&P. But we all know Elon isn't conventional and holds no empathy for Wall St. He's much more likely to tell the S&P "If you were worried about liquidity, you should have made an exception for us and added Tesla in Q1".

The S&P has zero leverage to demand anything from Tesla/Elon. If they don't add Tesla, the index is a joke. Considering Tesla's profitability is going to increase dramatically starting this quarter, time is also not on the S&P's side.

Edit: Also, even based on that video by Rob, a 2-3% offering would only had a small number of shares of the 25+ million needed to be added to the index. It wouldn't really be helpful unless Tesla offered up at least 10 million shares. I don't see Elon doing that just to help out the S&P

 

[LJS22]

jeezz, what the heck happened 15 min ago?

Tight consolidation, then it broke 1505, fear crept into the minds of traders that it would break out and buying commenced. Nobody wanted to be the first to make the first move, but confirmation was given and now the week begins.

 

[LJS22]

Resistance expected near 1550

 

[Mo City]

Well well well, what have we here (for now)? Some combination of optimism and FOMO.

 

[Papafox]

Haha, the SOBs just lost control of the capping.

 

[smorgasbord]

Tight consolidation, then it broke 1505, fear crept into the minds of traders that it would break out and buying commenced. Nobody wanted to be the first to make the first move, but confirmation was given and now the week begins.

And here I was, waiting for the MMD to buy some weekly Calls....

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Resistance expected near 1550

Well...that didnt last long

 

[LJS22]

1608 up next

 

[Prunesquallor]

I suspect the calculation depends upon the number of EVs that FCA was able to ship in Q2 due to the existance of "Super Credits" (double-counting some first portion of EVs made by a manufacturer). @Prunesquallor did extensive research and may be able to point at his previous comments to help refresh our memories.

Other issues with the nature of this 'pool' contract are:

• whether it's depends solely on the number of vehicles Tesla delivers up to the agreed upon limit
• if it also allows FCA to decrease its payments if they themselves sell fewer petrol powered units total (as we'd expect during this Covid outbreak).

Cheers!

Paging @Artful Dodger , @The Accountant
So, in attempting to calibrate my model for Q1 2020, I used this source for comparison (earlier version of one posted by @The Accountant )
Market monitor: European passenger car registrations, January–March 2020 | International Council on Clean Transportation

The only way I could match the YTD FCA-Tesla emissions was to use a much lower base FCA emission number than I have seen in the past 115 vs. 124 g/km. This starting point would allow 23250 Teslas to dilute the emissions of 164924 FCA petrol/diesel vehicles to the stated fleet average of 100 g/km.

European sales 2020-Q1 EV and PHEV - carsalesbase.com
https://carsalesbase.com/fiat-chrysler-automobiles-europe/

The addition of Super-Credits and "Phase-In" corrections result in the stated projection of 2020 pool emissions at 89 g/km. This should have led to a Q1 penalty avoidance of ~285 million euros. If the Q1 credit payments to Tesla from FCA can be shredded out, it should give us a clue as to the "multiplier" in the Tesla-FCA agreement. That assumes that the payments are based on emission reductions due to actual Tesla EU sales over a (for example) quarterly period.

 

[EdKan]

What the......! (That's my erudite contribution)

 

[LTC_RRR]

This is correct. Pulling a trailer and/or bad weather needs the longest range you can get. A real 300-350 miles at 75 mph would work for just about everyone.

unless you are in Arkansas; Tesla superchargers only support driving through the state, not around in it

 

[canoemore]

Good lord. It's like holding a balloon underwater.

 

[berryja]

Next wall 1600.

 

[printf42]

I am having such a grin that my iPhone doesn’t recognize my face anymore.

 

[LJS22]

Resistance expected near 1550

I can explain...1550 got bulldozed by volume haha

 

[Rammstein]

Could see first mini run here if it crosses 1505. I’m interested to see how much action hits the name on a breakout.

Wow that was an amazing call!

 

[ABCTG]

Benzinga - this morning: China-Made Tesla Model 3 Will Ditch Cobalt, Use CATL Batteries

Good, now the oil industry has cobalt all to themselves

Desulphurisation | Cobalt Institute

 

[StealthP3D]

I don't see any reason why the stock will move this week before earnings, without new information coming out. Everyone has their expectations and positions built up. On the plus side, sitting at $1500 for this long is definitely a good thing.

That didn't age well!

 

[LN1_Casey]

Up $60 and yet only up 4%.

 

[H Mak]

I am having such a grin that my iPhone doesn’t recognize my face anymore.

Get a Samsung