Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Silent Ludicrosy]

6-10 business days in this environment probably equates to a month or so.

Waiting on the S&P committee...

 

[Chunky Jr.]

I'm going to go out on a limb and predict that Friday's stock price hovers between 1475 and 1515

 

[EVortex]

Waiting on the S&P committee...
View attachment 573283

It’s not easy being green.

 

[Joe F]

Actually, no. You have to tell it to change lanes. And then, yes, it can cross the line and find the next lane.

Wrong thread, but unless the option was changed, NOA will change lanes automatically if enabled. That was the knock against NOA by (Car and Driver?)

I’ve not looked at the option since turning it off as it didn’t feel solid when first released. Might be time to try it again after upgrading to the new AP computer.

 

[MC3OZ]

It's quite amazing that all other charging networks are so poor. It's just a charging network - people have been charging since batteries were invented. But the fragmentation of the network, lack of real motivation by legacy OEMs, and varying software standards across vehicles and charging networks make the conditions required for a real competitor to Tesla almost impossible.

When Tesla started rolling out their network I thought they would probably stop after a few years as there would be enough good alternative networks available that Tesla wouldn't need to expand theirs. That turned out to be very wrong.

I think selling electricity at fast charging stations can be more profitable that selling petrol at gas stations....
The cost of the fuel itself is minimal, a site typically pays then utility after the customer has paid them, there is also the ability to use some local solar.

But most importantly there is plenty of time/opportunity for the customer to browse the store and buy something.

In anything I'm expecting Tesla to accelerate form here and for Supercharger to eventually be a break-even proposition that funds it own expansion.

The UK, Europe and Australia now have CCS2, which newer Tesla cars also support... there is the matter of billing, but I use 2 private non-Tesla networks here, one is an app on a mobile phone and another has an app and a tap-and-go card.The tap-and-go card is the most convenient and I simply leave the card in my car, if the car is stolen I can get onto the app and delete the card.

Overall I think other car makers have again missed the jump by not organising a decent competitor network... Give it time, other private operators will fill in the gap, but most private networks will also support Tesla charging, so we will have the best of both worlds, while it matters..

Once the majority of cars on the road are electric we will have fast charging and slow charging in all places where we want it.

But I'm amazed that we have gone this long without a suitable global standard, surely other carmakers are going to start to lobby for that..

Again car makers are doing themselves no favors by being tardy... customers don't need one more reason to buy a Tesla...

The Chinese push into Europe and North America may help to set the standards, I expect Chinese car makers will help build a network if they have to, they have big plans.

 

[traxila]

Question, so let's say inclusion happens and the stock jumps big time. I know most of us are pretty solid long term holders, but is there a price where you guys will start peeling shares off to bank gains and/or buy back in once it settles back down?


GM loves "real people" lol. JDPowah

They have probably been asking Elon to do an offering and he probably told them to pack sand.

The only reason it will come back down is people selling. That would include us no doubt.

But what price? Here in NYC, I need to pay about 30% on my long term cap gains. Suddenly the formula is more complicated, because I like my TSLA to be the dominant company in the future and hit trillion plus dollar valuation, so I do want to buy back. But I need to buy back 30% cheaper just to break even.

Guess I could try and time it in my retirement account. Or buy puts when I think time is right.

Easy to say it should be a very wild ride.

 

[Artful Dodger]

They add companies to the index as a routine event after they have a routine meeting, which for them will be in September.

So you missed the fact that the S&P Committee routinely adds new tickers to the index at any time (plenty of recent examples), and that the 'routine' quarterly meetings are primarily for re-weighting the components of the index?

 

[StealthP3D]

I don’t agree. They got a lot right. It’s a dedicated platform. It has a rather smooth exterior without a ICE like grill. It (might) have 300 miles range. It has reasonable looks. It’s Roughly equal to a 2015 Tesla and better then the ipace or the icq.

Now you would be crazy to buy one at $75000 over a 2020 Tesla model S as the Tesla is better in almost every way. The continuing problem though is they will struggle to make this car before 2022, and Tesla is going to move the bar forward by then. They are going to have to compete with the 2022 Model S.

I don't understand. You said you disagreed with @rdalcanto who said "GM is so screwed. More than 10 years behind and getting worse." But then everything you wrote is basically consistent with GM being screwed and being well behind Tesla. Being "roughly equal" to a 2015 Model S is essentially the same as being 8 years behind (considering Caddy doesn't even have an EV product to show us yet and the 2015 Model S was almost entirely 2012 technology).

 

[Curt Renz]

S&P committee, which in my mind (perhaps incorrectly but I doubt it) is tightly intertwined, and happy to coordinate, with large banks/funds.

The selection committee is part of S&P Global (SPGI), a quite profitable company. The index funds and banks are among their customers who must pay licensing/subscription fees. As customers, they might expect the committee to lend an ear to their needs.

S&P Global (SPGI): An Impressive Dividend Aristocrat With Double-Digit Payout Growth Potential

 

[tinm]

This is the 2nd time today you have posted a link to obvious FUD (WSJ writer earlier). That seems unnecessary. You can summarize without posting a link to support the FUD.

Failed the purity test eh? You’d rather investors were not aware of a wide range of information, even the occasional FUD, that might be swirling around out in the marketplace, information that, again, however bogus, might move markets, impede Tesla’s mission, and/or influence the public?

From time to time I’m going to keep on sharing items in this thread (one that is already 9,410 pages long), things I see and hear that might be of interest to even a mere handful of participants here. I would suggest you go right ahead and ignore, if the very thought of that makes you uncomfortable.

 

[printf42]

Which entity/entities are you referring to here with "other humans in their ear who have more to gain or lose"?

Because I think it's also a common misconception that index funds have a lot to gain in this. Their main concern is how well they can track an index, not the performance of an individual index. Not that TSLA's inclusion could possible have this large of an effect, but if the S&P 500 performs poorly, at worst people who have their money in Vanguard's S&P 500 index fund will move it to some other Vanguard index fund.

Who else would benefit from keeping TSLA stock price low? Shorts and the oil industry, but I doubt they are going to be able to influence TSLA's S&P 500 inclusion significantly.

Market makers? Doubt it. Maybe TSLA option sellers benefit the most when the price is flat, but they should be delta neutral most of the time, so perhaps they actually profit the most when there is a lot of option activity, such as during a wild S&P 500 inclusion. I don't think we can say conclusively that option market makers benefit from suppressing any stock price increase as a result of S&P 500 inclusion, or that they would care enough to try and influence it.

The only entity left is benchmarked funds. It's possible that a large number of benchmarked funds want to buy a significant amount of TSLA at a good price, but then why wouldn't they just buy now as soon as possible while the price is still $1,500? If a benchmarked fund buys before other benchmarked funds, it'll benefit from the buying that comes after from other benchmarked funds. And all benchmarked funds will benefit when index funds buying drives up the price even further later.

But most importantly, how would any entity even go about manipulating TSLA's S&P 500 inclusion and keep the stock price suppressed? We're talking about 26M shares that will need to be owned by index funds, likely more by benchmarked funds, and only discounted by the extent to which the inclusion has thus far been front-ran. Good luck convincing current investors to part with 26M+ shares at a discounted price.

This post isn't meant to argue that stock price will 100% increase as a result of S&P 500 inclusion, although I think it probably will. It is meant to argue that I don't believe TSLA can be manipulated in a way to suppress what would've otherwise been a significant increase in stock price as result of inclusion. The forces in play are just too large.

I want to add there probably are people in their ears reminding them not to play games.

There got to be funds front running the inclusion, and to limit downside they probably are using some kind of leverage that have time costs.

They just want a firework, a late firework is not guaranteed to be better. A quick firework would maximize their return/risk ratio. No firework is completely unacceptable.

The group who pays for the firework? They pay with other people’s money, so couldn’t care less. And they probably already have deals lined up with some front running friends, to “minimize risks” for their customers. They probably also want the firework to be splendid, so to justify their deals.

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Macros dragging futures down....let's hope for a stellar July jobs report to bring it back up hopefully

 

[RobStark]

Well the Cadillac Lyric did not drive onto the stage tells you something about their progress. Even the website says "Lyric show car".

Introducing Cadillac LYRIQ: An All-Electric Future

Production is targeted for late 2022 so this is 2 1/2 years out.

They are targeting 300 miles range and 150kW charge rate.

In some ways they are not even matching the specs for Tesla today. Let see where we are in 2 1/2 years.

At least 300 miles and at least 150 kW charge rate.

Base battery pack is 100 kWh. They have not decided yet on the size of the larger pack. The larger Hummer pack available in late 2021 is 200 kWh.

19 kW onboard charger.

2.5 years is 2023 not late 2022.

BTW Looks nothing like a Rivian.

 

[UnknownSoldier]

Macros dragging futures down....let's hope for a stellar July jobs report to bring it back up hopefully

Macros are heading south because Trump vs. TikTok and now WeChat. Let's see how this goes.

WeChat is basically the dominant social media platform, payment system, news dissemination vehicle, and official Chinese Communist Party propaganda apparatus rolled into one app. Everyone in China is basically required to use it so the Chinese government can monitor everything they do and think. WeChat is also used to spread propaganda throughout the Chinese diaspora worldwide. TikTok was always just a big heap of nothing, but going after WeChat is going to have far-ranging consequences that no one really can predict yet.

 

[Paul_SF]

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Macros are heading south because Trump vs. TikTok and now WeChat. Let's see how this goes.

WeChat is basically the dominant social media platform, payment system, news dissemination vehicle, and official Chinese Communist Party propaganda apparatus rolled into one app. Everyone in China is basically required to use it so the Chinese government can monitor everything they do and think. WeChat is also used to spread propaganda throughout the Chinese diaspora worldwide. TikTok was always just a big heap of nothing, but going after WeChat is going to have far-ranging consequences that no one really can predict yet.

Tencent also owns a 5% stake in Tesla....shouldn’t matter but I’m sure it will drag TSLA down.

 

[Dutchie]

Another model to consider on potential SP over the next 5-10 years.

After seeing that video I changed my strategy. Instead of selling at a certain $ figure I will not be selling before 2030. Don’t need the money before that anyway.

 

[Singuy]

Macros are heading south because Trump vs. TikTok and now WeChat. Let's see how this goes.

WeChat is basically the dominant social media platform, payment system, news dissemination vehicle, and official Chinese Communist Party propaganda apparatus rolled into one app. Everyone in China is basically required to use it so the Chinese government can monitor everything they do and think. WeChat is also used to spread propaganda throughout the Chinese diaspora worldwide. TikTok was always just a big heap of nothing, but going after WeChat is going to have far-ranging consequences that no one really can predict yet.

Tried to install Wechat the other day on my dad's phone. You can't even do it without another Wechat member vouching for you. And that wechat member needs to have an account open for at least 6 months. Needless to say we deleted the app. He just wanted to face time his relatives. So I'm not sure how far ranging consequences wechat is considering it's a super Chinese app geared toward only people in China.

 

[FrankSG]

Tencent also owns owned a 5% stake in Tesla....shouldn’t matter but I’m sure it will drag TSLA down.

FTFY

 

[StealthP3D]

Wrong thread, but unless the option was changed, NOA will change lanes automatically if enabled. That was the knock against NOA by (Car and Driver?)

Cadillac/GM doesn't have Navigate On Autopilot, that's a Tesla feature.