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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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I see a lot of responses tonight to someone who apparently posted an explanation of why they sold 3/4 of their TSLA today. I can't see their posts, because I must have ignored them. That tells me they most likely have posted significant FUD in the past. I would take whatever they said with a huge grain of salt. I doubt they ever owned TSLA.

You can probably see what I'm talking about by viewing their posting history.

Don’t worry. I bought their shares today.
 
Why do you think Amazon, Apple, and Google are legitimate competitors to Tesla in the autonomy/robotaxi business? In my opinion it's:

1. Tesla
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2. Intel MobilEye
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3. Waymo
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4. Everybody else

(This scale is for autonomy only. In the robotaxi business, I think the lead between Tesla and #2 is probably 2-3x as large, due to synergies between Tesla's businesses.)


I'm also not sure why you say that it's an unknown what autonomy will be worth. You can definitely run the numbers on the kinds of profits a robotaxi can generate, and extrapolate from there. Especially in the case of Tesla, because the business model they will use is known. In the case of competitors there's a little bit more uncertainty as to what the deals they'll have to make with partners will look like.

And yeah, I'm not saying you shouldn't have sold 3/4 of your TSLA holdings, even if there is no better risk/reward investment. I don't know your situation, and can't claim to know what financial decisions are best for you.
FTFY....

0.5. Nikola
1. Tesla

:p:p:p:p:p:p
 
upload_2020-8-7_19-4-22.png


LOL!!! :eek::eek::eek::eek::eek:
 
My favorite thing about so called "Tesla killers" is the assumption that when the magic killer car comes out, Tesla's technology will have moved sideways the entire time - range, performance, price etc will be the same as they are today.
Every time another "iPhone Killer" was released, it was already years behind where Apple was at the time. The only one that ever survived was Android, and that was for two reasons as it turns out.

(1) Google was literally giving Android away, it was an open-source project anyone could use freely.

This ended up not being the actual important reason. No, the important reason was:

(2) iPhone was at the time exclusive to AT&T and their principal competitor Verizon wanted something of their own and that something ended up being the original Motorola Droid. Android ended up taking over and leaving behind other prospective "iPhone Killers" like Palm's WebOS, Microsoft's Windows Phone, Nokia's half-baked messes, and Blackberry's floundering operations simply because Verizon backed the flagship Android product of that time. Had iPhone been available on both major American carriers from day one, the world might well have turned out very differently.

So, let's just say the "Tesla Killers" have their work cut out for them and they have already given Elon a 10 year head start. They can't afford to give their cars away, and it's unlikely a powerful company which controls something critical like a national charging network is going to back one of the various upcoming "Tesla Killers" above all the others. So...there will be no Androids this time to take on Apple. Good luck, ICE makers!

MKBHD remembers the Motorola Droid's launch:
 
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What companies do you think have a better risk/reward than Tesla?

The risk investing in TSLA @ $1,500 is still very very low imo, and if you're in doubt about the potential upside, I highly recommend doing the math on robotaxis. Even if it still takes Tesla another 5 or 10 years before they can make it work, as long as Tesla solves autonomy, it's hard for TSLA to be worth anything less than $10,000 per share, even if the rest of the business executes very poorly.
Agreed. Robitaxis should put TSLA at $10K or greater but it's not likely to happen with the current hardware suite IMO. Fortunately, Tesla will continue marching on and become a 1T company in a few years without robotaxis.

The Robotaxi numbers are compelling. Who wins and what it's worth is an unknown. Amazon, Apple, and Google are legitimate competitors. If TSLA wins, I'll buy back in. This is arguably the most valuable software ever. A.I. plus robotics ... holy *sugar*! I get it. Tesla won the electric car race, autonomy is still up for grabs. I'm a retiree living on a pension (not really), preservation of capital is high on my list of investment objectives.
When it comes to autonomy, there is a difference between Tesla being first vs. anyone else. Think of it this way: Everyone is trying to build a machine gun. Tesla has infinite rounds of ammunition while the others have a few bullets each. If Tesla is first (or a reasonably close second), it's a bloodbath for the ages because one OTA instantly arms a million cars. If someone else is first, the rollout will be very slow and the others will have time to catch up.
 
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Everyone has been talking about BP transitioning to renewables this week, which is of course total horseshit. Once the auto OEMs and oil companies are forced to pay their debts as investor acquiesce to the concept of profits coming to an end, they're dead.

And that's not even taking into account interest rates may be higher than 0% some day soon.

Tesla gave them a chance to try and keep pace. Now the Model Y and macro factors will drown them in their own debt.
 
I found this on a chat site and thought it summarized this week well.

"can not get over how dirty the manipulation is these days. Think about that Thursday blow off to 1520 out of nowhere. Then ripped right back down at end of day. An entire two weeks of making look like it's going to go up. Saving every dive and pivot posturing support. Waiting on 1500/1600 calls to load up and shake most puts and shorts for losses. Then smash it all. It’s really insane how wide in the open they been doing this for the last month."

Also I feel that the low volume and price stagnation is designed to drain off FOMO so that with the addition of Tesla to the S&P there will be a muted response. I feel that this is an actually planned set of events to keep Tesla in check.

Yes a vast conspiracy /s ?
 
FWIW, I was just on the phone with eTrade, discussing their Line of Credit program.

They allow borrowing up to 65% of current stock value, but less than that if you're over 80% concentrated into a single stock.

It was news to me that S&P 500 inclusion determines the penalty: -10% for stocks in the index, and -20% if they are not.

What I thought was most interesting, however, was that my consultant said, "...And of course, I'm sure that Tesla must be in the S&P 500 by now."

I just love love love hearing that.

Spending as much time here as I do, it's easy to feel like the whole world is acutely aware of Tesla's prospects, and that everyone is already actively engaged in either fighting for or against us.

Seen though that lens, anything negative can look like a conspiracy, and all good news appears already "priced in", but the truth is that there is still a HUGE number of potential investors and financial professionals out there who we have yet to surprise:

- People who know nothing about our potential index announcement
- People who know nothing about battery day
- People who know nothing about Tesla Energy
- People who know nothing about Model Y
- People who know nothing about Semi
- People who know nothing about FSD
- People who know nothing about China, or Berlin, or Austin

And, even more people who don't yet know the first thing about EVs.

There are real baddies out there spending significant time and money in opposition to our shared goals, but as long as there are still people making ill-informed assumptions about Tesla, we have plenty of fuel for our continued rise.

Bullish AF
@Rb48888 Thanks for sharing.

I'm with E*Trade as well. It all depends on your holdings. I signed up for the Line of Credit program and can borrow up to 30% of my current portfolio value. That's because I only hold TSLA in the pledged account.

I didn't know about the -10% if in the S&P 500 and -20% if not. That's good news for me, it means my credit line limit will go up to 40% soon.
 
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The Robotaxi numbers are compelling. Who wins and what it's worth is an unknown. Amazon, Apple, and Google are legitimate competitors. If TSLA wins, I'll buy back in. This is arguably the most valuable software ever. A.I. plus robotics ... holy *sugar*! I get it. Tesla won the electric car race, autonomy is still up for grabs. I'm a retiree living on a pension (not really), preservation of capital is high on my list of investment objectives.
Most of us here reached conclusion that FSD is a question of when, not a question of who.
If you think FSD is still up for grab, that explains your decision.

But, highly recommend you to do some more research on this topic.
Avoid listening to opinions from so called industry veterans(don’t even mention media reports), ask young PhD students instead.