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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
hey GM. Citroen called. They wanna their crappy rear back.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Outside is getting very closed to being finished:
Do we know what all the buildings will be used for? Phase 2 does much more than double the footprint of the factory, so I'm wondering if there might also be local production of new-tech battery cells, whether it's due to on-site seat manufacturing, and/or whether they simply plan to build way more MYs than M3s in Shanghai.
Do we know what all the buildings will be used for? Phase 2 does much more than double the footprint of the factory, so I'm wondering if there might also be local production of new-tech battery cells, whether it's due to on-site seat manufacturing, and/or whether they simply plan to build way more MYs than M3s in Shanghai.
I haven't seen any official confirmation of what the buildings do, but there is speculation that Tesla will be increasing the % if their parts made via casting. A couple of the buildings appear to have foundation work similar to what was created on the late addition end section of the Phase 1 building and could well be used for this purpose. In particular, the triangle shaped building at the border of the site that has a bunch of air filtration on top.
The building going up next to the pack production building is apparently for motors.
Don't know anything about the other buildings but am curious to find out.
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
I'm in the mood to speculate (this overview based on a video frame grabbed from Jason Yang Aug 6, 2020)
Clockwise from top-left:
- Motor Workshop - shared output for Models 3+Y
- Battery Workshop - shared output for Models 3+Y
- Gigapress / Stamping - (near end of Phase 1) possible location for Gigapress*
- Gigapress / AL Casting - (Phase 2 standalone bldg) 2nd possible location for Gigapress*
- Body Shop - Model Y (note smaller bldg size made possible due to AL casting of underbody)
- Additional Stamping - Model Y (could be anything, but have to make a guess here!)
- Paint Shop - Model Y (larger shop for 2x volume vs Model 3 / Phase 1 paintshop)
- Air Handling / Paint shop (27 large roof-mounted air handling units for large throughput)
- Offices / Engineering (no windows in this building)
I also would not be surprised to see that eventually there will be at least one more factory building added to the Phase 2 complex, where the blue-tarped yard is now between the Motor Workshop and the Electrical substation and Utilities building. I'd expect Tesla will want to manufacture more of their own components onsite, and I haven't yet identified a location for a Seat Workshop for instance. At any rate, items intended for use in General Assembly would have a prime location for production in this space.
All of the above is subject to revision as more info becomes available. Not advice for building your Gigafactory.
Cheers!
Thanks, that's very informative and makes a lot of sense.I'm in the mood to speculate (this overview based on a video frame grabbed from Jason Yang Aug 6, 2020)
View attachment 573815
Clockwise from top-left:
Note that there is one more building under construction, which is obscured in this photo, on the far side of the building I've labeled "Gigapress / AL Casting". It is a smallish, 1-story building I'm tentatively calling a Logistics Office, for managing shipping in/out of Phase 2.
- Motor Workshop - shared output for Models 3+Y
- Battery Workshop - shared output for Models 3+Y
- Gigapress / Stamping - (near end of Phase 1) possible location for Gigapress*
- Gigapress / AL Casting - (Phase 2 standalone bldg) 2nd possible location for Gigapress*
- Body Shop - Model Y (note smaller bldg size made possible due to AL casting of underbody)
- Additional Stamping - Model Y (could be anything, but have to make a guess here!)
- Paint Shop - Model Y (larger shop for 2x volume vs Model 3 / Phase 1 paintshop)
- Air Handling / Paint shop (27 large roof-mounted air handling units for large throughput)
- Offices / Engineering (no windows in this building)
I also would not be surprised to see that eventually there will be at least one more factory building added to the Phase 2 complex, where the blue-tarped yard is now between the Motor Workshop and the Electrical substation and Utilities building. I'd expect Tesla will want to manufacture more of their own components onsite, and I haven't yet identified a location for a Seat Workshop for instance. At any rate, items intended for use in General Assembly would have a prime location for production in this space.
All of the above is subject to revision as more info becomes available. Not advice for building your Gigafactory.
Cheers!
Regarding the 1 story building, they have quite a bit of heavy foundation work underneath it. Do you think that's needed for a logistics hub? I thought it might be further casting. Here's a pic from an older Jason Yang video.
Attachments
Artful Dodger
"Neko no me"
Indeed, that's an excellent point that a logistics office dosn't need heavy foundations like a robot assembly line requires. So perhaps this is our seat factory, or similar associated parts production facility. WuWa provided detailed video of this build on Jul 28, 2020 (grabbed here from timestamp 09:42)
Cheers!
Worth listening to re: Ride Hailing - key points:
Cathie thinks Tesla will make an offer to Uber and Lyft drivers:
Buy a Tesla for $5K-7K plus trade-in
“You can work the rest of it off”, and we'll “throw insurance in there as well”
When FSD arrives, they become "entrepreneurs" by sending the car out for autonomous rides. Genius.
Krugerrand
Meow
I feel like I’d want to put a blade on the front and bulldoze with it.
On slashdot there is a discussion on Uber and why it was losing money. Cathy likes the idea of Tesla doing hail riding, so would Tesla start a money losing business if they do so?
Here is a link to a response from a person with handle serviscope_minor about why Uber probably spends a ton of money on app development.
Coronavirus Clobbers Uber, Leading To $1.8 Billion Quarterly Loss - Slashdot
“But there's always someone who hasn't thought through very much and kinda only at the most narrow aspect of the code who assumes it can be done all cheaply.
Here's some of what's involved (and third isn't going to be anything like all of it)
iOS app. Not terribly hard but not trivial.
Android app that works on every awful android phone. This is much harder than you expect.
They need UI and UX people to actually design the thing because few people want a user interface designed by a programmer.
They need an i18n group since it's an international operation
They need a QA and testing team.
They need a backend team to, well, do the backend work.
They need system administrators to manage that because doing it well is not easy even with the cloud and programmers are quite good at ****ing it up.
They'll need an analytics team to figure out nasty bugs on specific devices, changes that cause subtle but revenue spoiling breakages etc.
They probably have enough devs and enough test devices that they need a full time person just to manage their phone library in one office.
The app needs to work in crappy network conditions, and they likely have a team dedicated to that, programmers for the app, networking people to do the simulated crap network etc.
They're on that internet so any asshat with or without a grudge will try and hack them, so they need a security team.
They deal with money on the internet so asshat who thinks they can game the system or cheat in some other way or steal credit card info will try to hack them.
You've now got a bunch of programmers and related staff so you probably need a development tools team to keep things sane.
They have to deal with many many regulatory frameworks so they need an army of lawyers and an privacy and security team to make sure everything is up to spec with user data.
They deal with actual people and money, and they need people to deal with the people and that doesn't scale well.
All that needs offices with all the usual infra, IT, HR, office management, facilities, physical security, administrators
Then sales and marketing because they need to actually book revenue.
Now you have a lumbering behemoth so you need a bunch of management to make it actually work (yeah I know every nerd likes to hate on management's but they never give alternatives)
Those are just a few of the things that come to the top off my head, and excludes the vast amounts of money they're just giving away to drivers because the business isn't profitable.
Running a larger business with an app is so so much more than "it's just an app". Doing these things at scale is so much more than code. Unfortunately the network effect for uber isn't big, and making a small local competitor is relatively easy, so they're going to struggle.
But that doesn't excuse the "it's just an app" mantra. Writing a big app that does non trivial things interacting with the real world in many countries is not easy. If you know how to do this at scale so much better, then why are you posting on slashdot rather than enjoying your 6 figure salary with 7 figure stock options as a very senior tech executive?”
I’m not familiar with hail riding and how it all works, but I can imagine that Tesla has an advantage here. As for the consumer end of an app, I don’t see much of an advantage. But with respect to the driver end, Tesla has. A lot/most of the software can run on the car, so it is a well defined platform with very limited variations in hardware that is already under full control of Tesla (unlike Android or iOS). That should account for some cost saving.
another user provided a breakdown of where the money went. https://tech.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=16925825&cid=60379527
One third went to research and development. As a major part of that may relate to self driving, Tesla already has such costs, so they don’t add.
Here is a link to a response from a person with handle serviscope_minor about why Uber probably spends a ton of money on app development.
Coronavirus Clobbers Uber, Leading To $1.8 Billion Quarterly Loss - Slashdot
“But there's always someone who hasn't thought through very much and kinda only at the most narrow aspect of the code who assumes it can be done all cheaply.
Here's some of what's involved (and third isn't going to be anything like all of it)
iOS app. Not terribly hard but not trivial.
Android app that works on every awful android phone. This is much harder than you expect.
They need UI and UX people to actually design the thing because few people want a user interface designed by a programmer.
They need an i18n group since it's an international operation
They need a QA and testing team.
They need a backend team to, well, do the backend work.
They need system administrators to manage that because doing it well is not easy even with the cloud and programmers are quite good at ****ing it up.
They'll need an analytics team to figure out nasty bugs on specific devices, changes that cause subtle but revenue spoiling breakages etc.
They probably have enough devs and enough test devices that they need a full time person just to manage their phone library in one office.
The app needs to work in crappy network conditions, and they likely have a team dedicated to that, programmers for the app, networking people to do the simulated crap network etc.
They're on that internet so any asshat with or without a grudge will try and hack them, so they need a security team.
They deal with money on the internet so asshat who thinks they can game the system or cheat in some other way or steal credit card info will try to hack them.
You've now got a bunch of programmers and related staff so you probably need a development tools team to keep things sane.
They have to deal with many many regulatory frameworks so they need an army of lawyers and an privacy and security team to make sure everything is up to spec with user data.
They deal with actual people and money, and they need people to deal with the people and that doesn't scale well.
All that needs offices with all the usual infra, IT, HR, office management, facilities, physical security, administrators
Then sales and marketing because they need to actually book revenue.
Now you have a lumbering behemoth so you need a bunch of management to make it actually work (yeah I know every nerd likes to hate on management's but they never give alternatives)
Those are just a few of the things that come to the top off my head, and excludes the vast amounts of money they're just giving away to drivers because the business isn't profitable.
Running a larger business with an app is so so much more than "it's just an app". Doing these things at scale is so much more than code. Unfortunately the network effect for uber isn't big, and making a small local competitor is relatively easy, so they're going to struggle.
But that doesn't excuse the "it's just an app" mantra. Writing a big app that does non trivial things interacting with the real world in many countries is not easy. If you know how to do this at scale so much better, then why are you posting on slashdot rather than enjoying your 6 figure salary with 7 figure stock options as a very senior tech executive?”
I’m not familiar with hail riding and how it all works, but I can imagine that Tesla has an advantage here. As for the consumer end of an app, I don’t see much of an advantage. But with respect to the driver end, Tesla has. A lot/most of the software can run on the car, so it is a well defined platform with very limited variations in hardware that is already under full control of Tesla (unlike Android or iOS). That should account for some cost saving.
another user provided a breakdown of where the money went. https://tech.slashdot.org/comments.pl?sid=16925825&cid=60379527
One third went to research and development. As a major part of that may relate to self driving, Tesla already has such costs, so they don’t add.
Last edited:
lafrisbee
Active Member
it does not matter if you own a condo at the beach. You can go there in your mind...
BlackS just gave a prime example of the reverse. If The Talking Mule is physically on the beach right this very minute he is on a Tablet staring at the screen, feeling like he is in the middle of the stock exchange with the AC not working.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Do you mean minor inconveniences like the fact that some of them will be underwater in the forseeable future?
The most aggravating aspect of this BS is that they have already announced this by renaming themselves ‘Beyond Petroleum’ like 20 years ago and adopting their current green and gold logo. How many times can they go to this well?
Just like the OEMs and their PR. If we go back to 2012 and add up all the BEV initiatives that were announced and supposed to be on the road within two years....
lafrisbee
Active Member
This got 20 "Funny" responses. And I think it is completely true. An intelligent person thinks it as well.
All of this made me feel good that Tesla doesn't have a mobile app yet.
As a Nerd, it's not management that's hated, but ignorant management. (Anecdote ahead warning). We had an outage and a replacement server got dropped so it was a couple of days before a new replacement could be obtained. The higher up manager asked if he could go down to the electronics store and pick one up. He obviously had no clue about what the nerds were doing. This is the kind of management that's hated.
lafrisbee
Active Member
You failed to mention the biggest positive aspect of Nikola's factory construction. The low environmental impact!You've seen it before...stop lying....take a look at NKLA's construction progress....light speed and years ahead of TSLA
Actually they do. @DaveT in one of his videos talked about an in-development Tesla Network app that was shown to him at Autonomy Day.
I didn't include /s sorry.
I was referring to the Tesla app on my crappy Android phone. And it seems to work most of the times!
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