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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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After-action Report: Fri, Aug 07, 2020: (Full-Day's Trading)

Headline: "TGIF (Groundhog Friday)"

Traded: $12,936,007,438.50 ($12.94 B)
Volume: 8,906,065
VWAP: $1,452.49

Closing SP / VWAP: 100.01%
(TSLA closed ABOVE today's Avg SP)
Mkt Cap: TSLA / TM = $270.73B / $180.418B = 150.06%​

TSLA 1-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $279.19B
TSLA 6-mth Moving Avg Market Cap: $167.43B
Nota Bene: Elon's CEO comp. plan 2nd tranche vested July 24, 2020

'Short' Report:

FINRA Volume / Total NASDAQ Vol = 45.1% (45th Percentile rank FINRA Reporting)
FINRA Short/Total Volume = 44.8% (46th Percentile rank Shorting)
FINRA Short Exempt Volume was 0.92% of Short Volume (48th Percentile Rank)​

TSLA - SUMMARY TABLE - 2020-08-07.png


Comment: "MMs accelerate the Market's transition to renewable FUD."

View all Lodger's After-Action Reports

Cheers!
 
For @FrankSG, or others with similar plans to convert from options to stock, IF we see a large move due to Battery Day and/or S&P inclusion, are you setting orders ahead of time, in case of a sudden spike?

I was planning to do so today, but I'm unsure of how a quickly changing IV might affect my options price targets.

I would guess that rising IV might lag behind a sudden rise in share price.

If SP spikes hard, a standing sell order could be the ticket. But, if the SP rises and holds, then I'd imagine IV might continue to push options prices higher, for a bit, until the options market adjusts and the SP finds a new resting point.

Like Frank, I measure my success in number of long-term shares held (rather than cash value), so a significant bump in IV AFTER I converted to shares could be sad, as would be waiting for IV to rise during substantial profit taking.

I think, for now, I'll probably just set sell orders for half of the positions I'd plan to convert to shares, and keep a close eye on the rest.

Is anyone else in a similar position with thoughts on how IV might impact their conversions from LEAPs to Stock?

I don't set sell orders ahead of time. I think a permanent revaluation to $2,xxx is still quite likely with S&P 500 happening soon, and very likely off of S&P 500 inclusion and Q3/Q4 results. Therefore, I'm not scared that a SP of $2,500 would be an intra-day only thing.

I'm more scared of setting a sell order for the options at ~$2,500, and only being able to buy shares with the proceeds a day later when the SP has shot past $2,500.

So I'll just sell the options and immediately buy shares myself in real time.
 
Sold 3/4 of my position today. Had every intention of holding forever when I bought it, but I'll take my 6x in one year and be happy. Other companies that I love with better risk/reward ratios. I'll buy again if the price/value improves.

P.S. All the island buying and happy spouse talk is bad luck. Lots of "former" stock market millionaires in the world.

What companies do you think have a better risk/reward than Tesla?

The risk of investing in TSLA @ $1,500 is still very very low imo, and if you're in doubt about the potential upside, I highly recommend doing the math on robotaxis. Even if it still takes Tesla another 5 or 10 years before they can make it work, as long as Tesla solves autonomy, it's hard for TSLA to be worth anything less than $10,000 per share, even if the rest of the business executes very poorly.
 
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Re: BlackS's post on this article:
"The U.S. Air Force awards ULA and SpaceX with billions in 5 years of national security launch contracts, with the companies beating out Blue Origin and Northrop Grumman in the highly competitive NSSL Phase 2 program."

It's hard to describe just how important this is for SpaceX. While it was by far the expected outcome (SpaceX is the only company out of the four competing that has a reliable launch vehicle which is not set to be phased out within the next five years), it would have been devastating for them if they didn't win.

TBH, it's good news, but it's not that important, only about 2 launches a year from 2022-2025... SpaceX is planning to launch 30-40 times per year.
 
For @FrankSG, or others with similar plans to convert from options to stock, IF we see a large move due to Battery Day and/or S&P inclusion, are you setting orders ahead of time, in case of a sudden spike?

I was planning to do so today, but I'm unsure of how a quickly changing IV might affect my options price targets.

I would guess that rising IV might lag behind a sudden rise in share price.

If SP spikes hard, a standing sell order could be the ticket. But, if the SP rises and holds, then I'd imagine IV might continue to push options prices higher, for a bit, until the options market adjusts and the SP finds a new resting point.

Like Frank, I measure my success in number of long-term shares held (rather than cash value), so a significant bump in IV AFTER I converted to shares could be sad, as would be waiting for IV to rise during substantial profit taking.

I think, for now, I'll probably just set sell orders for half of the positions I'd plan to convert to shares, and keep a close eye on the rest.

Is anyone else in a similar position with thoughts on how IV might impact their conversions from LEAPs to Stock?

I don't set sell orders ahead of time. I think a permanent revaluation to $2,xxx is still quite likely with S&P 500 happening soon, and very likely off of S&P 500 inclusion and Q3/Q4 results. Therefore, I'm not scared that a SP of $2,500 would be an intra-day only thing.

I'm more scared of setting a sell order for the options at ~$2,500, and only being able to buy shares with the proceeds a day later when the SP has shot past $2,500.

So I'll just sell the options and immediately buy shares myself in real time.

The strategy that has worked quite well for me is to allow some of the options to be assigned and convert to shares at expiration. That way, I am not tempted to try and time the market when buying the shares.

For e.g. recently I had 6 July17 $690 options which I had purchased late last year for $25 each - so 15K for the 6 options held till the week of expiration. Just prior to expiration, on Monday/Tuesday of that week I sold 3 options for ~700 each. This gave me sufficient cash to cover the assignment of the remaining 3 options on Friday for 207K. When these 300 shares were credited to my account, the cost basis is listed as $715 (690+25). In reality I only paid 15K for these - so excellent transaction.

Over the last 10 months, I have used this strategy to build up a nice total number of shares which will be long term HODL shares. I have 2 more options for Sept expiration with strike price of $425 which will also be converted to shares. All I have to do is make sure there is sufficient cash to cover the cost basis at expiration so 83K.

Edit: As @ggr reminded below, don't forget about the taxman. This strategy works well for me because it is in an IRA account, so no tax liabilities for now. Will have to pay a good chunk sometime when we withdraw. If I was to do this in an regular investment account, I would only do this for LEAPS beyond 1 year. I would only sell options that were beyond 1 year, so that it is long term gain, then account for an additional 25% as tax liability (15% federal + 10% CA state tax)
 
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The strategy that has worked quite well for me is to allow some of the options to be assigned and convert to shares at expiration. That way, I am not tempted to try and time the market when buying the shares.

For e.g. recently I had 6 July17 $690 options which I had purchased late last year for $25 each - so 15K for the 6 options held till the week of expiration. Just prior to expiration, on Monday/Tuesday of that week I sold 3 options for ~700 each. This gave me sufficient cash to cover the assignment of the remaining 3 options on Friday for 207K. When these 300 shares were credited to my account, the cost basis is listed as $715 (690+25). In reality I only paid 15K for these - so excellent transaction.

Over the last 10 months, I have used this strategy to build up a nice total number of shares which will be long term HODL shares. I have 2 more options for Sept expiration with strike price of $425 which will also be converted to shares. All I have to do is make sure there is sufficient cash to cover the cost basis at expiration so 83K.
You haven't accounted for the tax owing on the sales. Yes, you've still made a handsome deal, but don't get caught short next April.
 
  • Helpful
Reactions: UCF3
What companies do you think have a better risk/reward than Tesla?

The risk investing at TSLA @ $1,500 is still very very low imo, and if you're in doubt about the potential upside, I highly recommend doing the math on robotaxis. Even if it still takes Tesla another 5 or 10 years before they can make it work, as long as Tesla solves autonomy, it's hard for TSLA to be worth anything less than $10,000 per share, even if the rest of the business executes very poorly.
The Robotaxi numbers are compelling. Who wins and what it's worth is an unknown. Amazon, Apple, and Google are legitimate competitors. If TSLA wins, I'll buy back in. This is arguably the most valuable software ever. A.I. plus robotics ... holy *sugar*! I get it. Tesla won the electric car race, autonomy is still up for grabs. I'm a retiree living on a pension (not really), preservation of capital is high on my list of investment objectives.
 
OT, feel free to move to Supercharger thread if N/A

I frequent a non-Tesla forum as much for entertainment as well as an attempt to defuse anti-Tesla FUD which I think we all owe it to the mission. A lot of you do battle on Twitter and Reddit but there's still so much misinformation out there, there's enough work for all of us.

I try to source my push back as much as possible with hard evidence and well researched articles. You would think it's an easy task and on the surface, it kind of is. Defending Tesla is like shooting fish in a barrel compared to what the legacy automakers are going to battle with.

I mention this not to toot my own horn but the topic of the supercharger network is a real hot button for some that are so brand loyal and delusional as a result of their disdain for all things Tesla. This can be very frustrating when you post trip itineraries comparing a Tesla with a Bolt. A 4 1/2 hour total Tesla charging stop vs 12 1/2 hours for the Bolt for the same trip will get responses such as "the Bolt will charge to 50% in approximately the same time as a Tesla", or "there's more public charging portals than superchargers", Supercharges aren't reliable either", etc.

It's either ignore the evidence, move the goalposts, or make up some new statistic easily refuted. Their myopic viewpoint IMO is worse than some we hear on our side of the fence (and some of us do tend to sugarcoat and defend Tesla with a bias, I certainly do) if only because we can show proof that the Supercharge Network is superior in any metric you choose. By believing it isn't, or that it soon won't be, not only robs you of the pleasures of fast, easy, convenient long distance travel, it clouds the decisions of the guy that reads your opinion and also believes it's true. That guy eventually discovers the truth but is so disappointed with the reality of long distance travel in a non-Tesla, they not only give up on BEV's, the also tell all their friends, BEV's aren't ready for long distance trips.

I try to implore any naysayer to rent a Tesla for a weekend and do a 1,000 trip, unplanned, throw a dart on a map and go. See how painless it can be. No malfunctioning card readers, screens you can't read, broken kiosks, multiple memberships, cords that don't reach, throw a chicken bone over your shoulder when plugging in, kludgey apps, 50kW max charge, phone call to main office, move to next charger three times, expensive, 30 minute max charging, illogical locations for road trips, the list is endless.
What escapes me though is if the public charging infrastructure is already superior to the Supercharger Network, then why do they bitch about it being a walled garden? Stay with your network and we'll stay with ours.

To bring this full circle, the bragging that Mark Ruess (president of GM) did about the EVgo partnership (remember the Bechtel one?) misses the point completely about what the non-Tesla owners really want. GM's focus on this build out is for apartment dwellers, (is this the Lyric and Hummer demographic?) not road trippers. It's for urban centers, not boondocks where you really need them. They can't hit the target because they don't even see it.

Rated funny, because next time someone tells me they are going on a US road trip in a non Tesla EV, I'll tell them to be sure to pack plenty of chicken bones! :D
 
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Reactions: UCF3
The Robotaxi numbers are compelling. Who wins and what it's worth is an unknown. Amazon, Apple, and Google are legitimate competitors. If TSLA wins, I'll buy back in. This is arguably the most valuable software ever. A.I. plus robotics ... holy *sugar*! I get it. Tesla won the electric car race, autonomy is still up for grabs. I'm a retiree living on a pension (not really), preservation of capital is high on my list of investment objectives.

Why do you think Amazon, Apple, and Google are legitimate competitors to Tesla in the autonomy/robotaxi business? In my opinion it's:

1. Tesla
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2. Intel MobilEye
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3. Waymo
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4. Everybody else

(This scale is for autonomy only. In the robotaxi business, I think the lead between Tesla and #2 is probably 2-3x as large, due to synergies between Tesla's businesses.)


I'm also not sure why you say that it's an unknown what autonomy will be worth. You can definitely run the numbers on the kinds of profits a robotaxi can generate, and extrapolate from there. Especially in the case of Tesla, because the business model they will use is known. In the case of competitors there's a little bit more uncertainty as to what the deals they'll have to make with partners will look like.

And yeah, I'm not saying you shouldn't have sold 3/4 of your TSLA holdings, even if there is no better risk/reward investment. I don't know your situation, and can't claim to know what financial decisions are best for you.
 
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Well, for starters you need a boat to bring everything to and from; cat food, water, beer, building supplies, fuel unless you can do solar, the Tesla to drive around even if it’s just the Cyber ATV, etc... I haven’t checked yet, but I’m pretty sure Amazon et al don’t deliver.
You can save a lot if ya leave the cat food out.
And double up on the beer.
 
The strategy that has worked quite well for me is to allow some of the options to be assigned and convert to shares at expiration. That way, I am not tempted to try and time the market when buying the shares.

For e.g. recently I had 6 July17 $690 options which I had purchased late last year for $25 each - so 15K for the 6 options held till the week of expiration. Just prior to expiration, on Monday/Tuesday of that week I sold 3 options for ~700 each. This gave me sufficient cash to cover the assignment of the remaining 3 options on Friday for 207K. When these 300 shares were credited to my account, the cost basis is listed as $715 (690+25). In reality I only paid 15K for these - so excellent transaction.

Over the last 10 months, I have used this strategy to build up a nice total number of shares which will be long term HODL shares. I have 2 more options for Sept expiration with strike price of $425 which will also be converted to shares. All I have to do is make sure there is sufficient cash to cover the cost basis at expiration so 83K.

Edit: As @ggr reminded below, don't forget about the taxman. This strategy works well for me because it is in an IRA account, so no tax liabilities for now. Will have to pay a good chunk sometime when we withdraw. If I was to do this in an regular investment account, I would only do this for LEAPS beyond 1 year. I would only sell options that were beyond 1 year, so that it is long term gain, then account for an additional 25% as tax liability (15% federal + 10% CA state tax)

So with your strategy you just convert them to shares? When do you decide to buy options?
 
the $960 peak in September February and the $1790 this last month were fishy to say the least, but it's not always about the money.

SP spikes on Feb 4 and Jul 13, 2020 were ALL about short-term gains; very little to do with the Company, or it's fundamentals. But those momentary peaks do foreshadow the Company's future value.

Now it's all about growth, the Company executing its production plans, and becoming the dominant automaker and energy solutions provider.

Tesla is literally creating the future we want. EVs FTW. :D

Cheers!
 
I see a lot of responses tonight to someone who apparently posted an explanation of why they sold 3/4 of their TSLA today. I can't see their posts, because I must have ignored them. That tells me they most likely have posted significant FUD in the past. I would take whatever they said with a huge grain of salt. I doubt they ever owned TSLA.

You can probably see what I'm talking about by viewing their posting history.