Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[StealthP3D]

Profit taking at this level and after such a runup is pretty normal. Many people on this uberbull board are talking about selling some, so can you imagine what those of lesser faith are contemplating.

True. But normal behavior is usually not ideal behavior. That's why we have so many bitter people pop in here from time to time to complain about anything and everything. They rarely tell us what price they sold at. I wonder why?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Bought 2 at 1896 and one at 1880. Terrible timing but what ever.

Yes, MMs 'filled the gap' by forcing the SP down to just below yesterday's intraday high:

MMs are predictable if nothing else. Now with the preliminaries out of the way, we'll see if there's more buying interest today than selling pressure.

Two competing narratives right now: we're still $90ish above the Upper-BB (contributes to selling pressure), but there's also a raft of good news imminent or breaking (FOMO is a thing).

GLTA!

Cheers to the Longs!

P.S. The obvious play for shortzes today is to try to cap the SP until volume dries up, then attack (typically during a natural lull in trading like lunch time)

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Spot on analysis.

Current pre-market suggests we could be repeating Feb delta-hedging squeeze. The question is what happens after the split+sp500+batteryday combo. You're probably right there is a risk of a drop after the battery day, but our momentum is too strong to go significantly down unless there is a huge short-term squeeze.

On the one hand, there are too many short term catalysts to justify realizing gains right now. On the other hand, we cannot go up 100-200 bucks every day going forward. At some point we're in the bubble territory if this rally goes on until battery day. Not that it really matters to long-term holders waiting for 5k or more.

It's worth remembering that the valuation doesn't need to be attached to reality in the short term (look at NKLA). Let's assume TSLA has a fair value of $1800 right now if you ask bulls here. There is no reason why we couldn't rally to $3000 or more if comparing current TSLA valuation to real bubble stocks. Just my opinion.

You're talking about $3k post split right

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Nah, don't want to borrow - what-if something happens and the market crashes again, that would be an incredibly stressful scenario. Better to cash-out what's needed and be secure IMO.

I'm going to keep the day job a bit longer anyway, will fund my fleet of Teslas (MY, CT & R2 - already decided to keep my MX too)

You have a day job?

 

[Artful Dodger]

Profit taking at this level and after such a runup is pretty normal. Many people on this uberbull board are talking about selling some, so can you imagine what those of lesser faith are contemplating.

Yeah, it's not called profit taking with the SP drops $13 in 15 seconds. That's called short selling.

 

[JusRelax]

Yeah, it's not called profit taking with the SP drops $13 in 15 seconds. That's called short selling.

I think it's both. Short selling initiated it with a sharp sell off, traders looking to make a quick buck saw a top and sold off:

 

[M|S|M MYP]

Can someone please explain to me the 5:1 stock dividends?? Thought i'd throw that out there in case anyone has forgotten.

 

[StealthP3D]

Yeah, it's not called profit taking with the SP drops $13 in 15 seconds. That's called short selling.

I'm not so sure. $13 isn't much in the bigger picture and one theory that has been gaining favor with me as I watch the various share price moves is that the manipulators create a lot of the volatility by buying shares to run up the price temporarily so they can sell them at key moments to try to precipitate a wave of selling/profit taking.

Not all quick downdrafts have to be caused by short-selling and I think the impending split is greatly reducing the willingness of shorts to open new short positions.

 

[woodisgood]

I'm not so sure. $13 isn't much in the bigger picture and one theory that has been gaining favor with me as I watch the various share price moves is that the manipulators create a lot of the volatility by buying shares to run up the price temporarily so they can sell them at key moments to try to precipitate a wave of selling/profit taking.

Not all quick downdrafts have to be caused by short-selling and I think the impending split is greatly reducing the willingness of shorts to open new short positions.

It would be a pretty ballsy short. Unless you had information that S&P wasn’t happening anytime soon.

 

[Dancing Lemur]

Time to go pay a visit to $2k, methinks, if the macro can just maintain for a bit. I would normally bet it would bounce off 2000 a few times before breaking through, but these are not normal times. As someone alluded to earlier, the trader’s fallacy of “this time it’s different” is hard to shake, but it actually might be this time.

 

[Artful Dodger]

I'm not so sure. $13 isn't much in the bigger picture

Your 'bigger picture' presumably spans a time frame longer than 15 sec.

This was shorting. Don't need to pretend otherwise, or try to hand-wave it away.

 

[ZachF]

OT:

SpaceX launch this morning, happening now

 

[Big Time]

FBA71C4C-809E-40B4-85DF-BFAC343CBD85

• Big Time
• Aug 18, 2020

Kramer

 

[scaesare]

OT

SpaceX launch at 10:30 AM ET 7:30AM PT

First attempt at a booster 6th re-use and landing...

 

[YAWD]

HW4 rumor: TSMC 7nm. Tesla + Broadcom joint development. Initial production 2020 Q4. SoW


https://twitter.com/kelvinyang7/status/1295638648218689536?s=21

I dont think this HW4. From the size of the chip, it seems more of DOJO chip to me. NN training chips have been increasing in silicon area. After developing HW3, I am not sure why Tesla would start working with Broadcomm.

 

[scaesare]

The conclusions in the article don't make sense to me, especially when they mention HPC chips in the article itself - HPC is datacenter, not in-car.

Only 25 chips from a 12" wafer at 7nm? That's probably a die size of over 400mm^2, maybe over 1000mm^2 depending on the assumptions you make about how good the yields are. That's as big or bigger than the largest high end GPU dies.

If 25 dies per 300mm (12") wafer are true, these are more likely chips for Dojo NN learning acceleration than chips for FSD HW NN in-car acceleration.

For comparison, HW 3.0 FSD chip is 20x13mm or 260mm^2, on 14nm node. On 7nm node, to be that much larger, would be an obscene number of transistors. A direct shrink from 14nm to 7nm would be roughly half the die area (in reality, nothing is a perfect scaling, it would be a bit bigger). So to be on the order of 3x~7x the transistor count (taking into consideration a smaller node and larger die area) would be nonsensical for FSD in-car hardware.

I suspect in their rush to be first to publish Electrek has made some incorrect assumptions.

(emphasis mine)

Actually a full die shrink step from 14nm to 7nm would ideally be one-quarter the die area (2 axis reduction). As you mention, not all features scale down linearly with the shrink, but it would be more like a ~3.x reduction in area, not a <2x reduction...

 

[H Mak]

Successful lift off for Falcon 9. Are you watching $TSLA?

 

[StealthP3D]

It would be a pretty ballsy short. Unless you had information that S&P wasn’t happening anytime soon.

The retail shorts can be characterized as more dim-witted than ballsy. LOL! But of course that's not who we are talking about here because most of them have no money left (for obvious reasons)!

 

[perwis]

Tesla be like this:

 

[Runarbt]

Wow.. market in red and $TSLA steady climbing, solid green. This is refreshing for a change.

If/when market turn positive we might head be back to 19xx?