Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[avoigt]

Interesting statement from the S&P commission speaker, Friday

https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1302333137326804992/photo/1

 

[Tslynk67]

If the SPY Guys are going to add $TSLA to their index, but they're stressed about Europe being ahead of the US, why not make the announcement 15 minutes before main market, Tuesday morning? Or is that too "flexible" and "common sense"?

 

[Christine69420]

The standard of diligence on this sub is going down the drains:

Not one disagree after me mixing up saturdays and sundays? Are people only looking at the pictures?

 

[heltok]

The standard of diligence on this sub is going down the drains:

View attachment 584999

Not one disagree after me mixing up saturdays and sundays? Are people only looking at the pictures?

I caught it, but I assumed you meant that the were doing preparations to continue work on Sunday. I have a bad habit of being very generous in how I read other people’s statement, otherwise I would find faults nonstop as finding errors is my asperger superpower...

 

[Tachyon]

The standard of diligence on this sub is going down the drains:

View attachment 584999

Not one disagree after me mixing up saturdays and sundays? Are people only looking at the pictures?

“A picture says a thousand words”
Try writing 1001 words for us to read before we look at pictures.

 

[j6Lpi429@3j]

otherwise I would find faults nonstop as finding errors is my asperger superpower...

Any chance you could get a job in teslas panel-gap department?
BAZINGA!

 

[MikeAtkinson]

This new offering is more than double the previous "bolstering" offering. My theory is that it relates more to the unusual meeting with VW and the fundamental manufacturing change Elon spoke of:

Unlikely, such offerings take time to organise, so they decided to do it well before the meeting.

Much more likely, in my opinion, is that it relates to battery day. If part of battery day is massive manufacturing expansion, then the question comes "how do you pay for it?", with a $5 billion ATM offering, that question is answered.

It might be for S&P 500 inclusion liquidity, but I doubt that S&P could persuade Elon to raise money unless he thought it was for underlying business reasons and not just for inclusion into some index.

Then again it might just be Tesla taking advantage of a high stock price to bolster their balance sheet.

 

[amolina]

Unlikely, such offerings take time to organise, so they decided to do it well before the meeting.

Much more likely, in my opinion, is that it relates to battery day. If part of battery day is massive manufacturing expansion, then the question comes "how do you pay for it?", with a $5 billion ATM offering, that question is answered.

It might be for S&P 500 inclusion liquidity, but I doubt that S&P could persuade Elon to raise money unless he thought it was for underlying business reasons and not just for inclusion into some index.

Then again it might just be Tesla taking advantage of a high stock price to bolster their balance sheet.

Setting up massive battery production for utility grade could be one reason. Its annoying that they mentioned that the raise is to bolster the balance sheet. What the hell, their balance sheet looks so sweet in these times of the year.

 

[perwis]

Cathie Wood has a new video out published yesterday on the Ark Invest YouTube channel where she reflects on the macro environment and the recent market correction last week.

I found it quite interesting and useful. For example, she and Ark think that we should expect low interest rates over the next 5-10 years and that this means that higher P/E ratios expectations on stocks are warranted. So even if current SnP500 PE is high compared to history, she expects that this will continue to be the new norm. Hence we are not in bubble territory even though one might get the impression by just looking at historical charts.

Thoughts?

Sorry if this has been posted before but I didn’t find it by searching the forum.

 

[ammulder]

Setting up massive battery production for utility grade could be one reason. Its annoying that they mentioned that the raise is to bolster the balance sheet. What the hell, their balance sheet looks so sweet in these times of the year.

I think that's just an acceptable yet vague answer for keeping their cards close to the vest. No need to telegraph their intentions.

 

[pjferr]

Cathie Wood has a new video out published yesterday on the Ark Invest YouTube channel where she reflects on the macro environment and the recent market correction last week.

I found it quite interesting and useful. For example, she and Ark think that we should expect low interest rates over the next 5-10 years and that this means that higher P/E ratios expectations on stocks are warranted. So even if current SnP500 PE is high compared to history, she expects that this will continue to be the new norm. Hence we are not in bubble territory even though one might get the impression by just looking at historical charts.

Thoughts?

Sorry if this has been posted before but I didn’t find it by searching the forum.

Chamath Palihapitiya posted similar thoughts on twitter recently with regards to the historic low interest rate environment which is expected to continue for years versus during the dot com bubble 20 years ago the bond yield was 6% which is what ultimately caused the crash. My takeaway is that stocks and housing is going to continue to climb until the Fed raises rates.

 

[Silentk]

So, here’s another example of something that wasn’t that’s become a ‘fact’.

Musk NEVER tweeted anything about the S&P. He tweeted about a bloody spoon and strawberry fields. People here SPECULATED that there might be some hidden S&P message, it became a joke (I thought). But somehow now —
.

We will have to agree to disagree (most of your posts on here seem to be just disagreeing with someone anyway).

Elon is very into his memes and his hints - and if you think that his "snake jazz and polynesian music" comment was just random weirdness - that is your choice. I did NOT say he mentioned S&P, I said he hinted at it, and to my reading there was one very strong hint, and a couple of things that were possibly hints or just general weirdness.

Time will tell. Peace out.

 

[hacer]

While Tesla is growing more valuable every day, it's underlying business has not grown 10x in value in the past 12 months. The stock price increase is a combination of many market and behavioural factors in addition to underlying company execution. I think it would be difficult to argue that, on a purely business execution basis Tesla has increased in value by more than 3x-4x in the past 12 months.

That means the remaining 6x-7x growth is due to the market and behavioural factors. If the market sees real panic Tesla could easily see its market cap drop to $200bn for a short while. If the effects of options trading from big names like Softbank, along with the dramatic increase in retail options trading suddenly reverses we could also see large stock price moves in either direction. These are just two scenarios out of many that could move the stock price to anywhere between $200 and $600+ irrespective of the brilliant execution of Tesla. It also doesn't mean that the price has to drop by anywhere near that much either if markets remain buoyant and the positive outlook for Tesla remains.

Nearly all large fast growing companies have had dramatic drops in price on their way to the top. As an example - Amazon dropped by nearly 2/3 in the GFC.
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The problem with this analysis is that it presumes that the market was correctly valuing TSLA at your "starting point". I'm pretty sure 12 months ago TSLA was very significantly undervalued by the market.

 

[Singuy]

Chamath Palihapitiya posted similar thoughts on twitter recently with regards to the historic low interest rate environment which is expected to continue for years versus during the dot com bubble 20 years ago the bond yield was 6% which is what ultimately caused the crash. My takeaway is that stocks and housing is going to continue to climb until the Fed raises rates.

Yup, if we had some decent interest rates, I would have pulled out and retire. Like it's all that fun defending every FUD and being manipulated by MM at will, seeing portfolio go up and down 20% weekly. You can't really plan around this kind of volitality since we are at the mercy of wall street gamblers.

 

[dl003]

The standard of diligence on this sub is going down the drains:

View attachment 584999

Not one disagree after me mixing up saturdays and sundays? Are people only looking at the pictures?

I can relate. Lately the days have just sort of melted into a giant blob of time for me, too. I have an idea when we are pre B Day, between B Day and P&D, or just waiting for ER. Outside of that I dont much care what day it is anymore.

 

[Krugerrand]

Interesting statement from the S&P commission speaker, Friday

https://twitter.com/WholeMarsBlog/status/1302333137326804992/photo/1

That’s not interesting. That’s called trying to put out a criticism fire by being ambiguous because what you’re apart of is a big, fat secret.

 

[S3XY]

“A picture says a thousand words”
Try writing 1001 words for us to read before we look at pictures.

That's pretty easy actually. All I have to do is reply to one of @FrankSG's thorough rebuttles to an @Artful Dodger post.

 

[dw4ngg]

Chamath Palihapitiya posted similar thoughts on twitter recently with regards to the historic low interest rate environment which is expected to continue for years versus during the dot com bubble 20 years ago the bond yield was 6% which is what ultimately caused the crash. My takeaway is that stocks and housing is going to continue to climb until the Fed raises rates.

Moreso for companies w the underlying fundamental and growth aspects to support like TSLA

 

[Robocop]

Any chance you could get a job in teslas panel-gap department?
BAZINGA!

I read this as a department specifically designed to ADD panel gaps.

 

[hacer]

He has though.

(warning: below is a list of actual facts, so I expect a flood of disagrees )



Like when they did the $2000 FSD sale they later admitted was a mistake, and he stated publicly anybody who paid $3000 for it would get a 1k refund.

Then later it turned out nobody who paid 3k more than within a week or 2 of the sale actually was getting a refund- the folks who did so in the previous couple years when they were explicitly told it'd never be cheaper got nothing.


Or when he promised all new cars come with all the HW needed for FSD back in 2016. Then it turned out they didn't and had to be upgraded with HW that didn't even exist when he made the original claim. See also his promise on autonomy day all new cars now come with HW3 and that didn't turn out true either.

Or going back further when he promised Supercharging is, and always will be free.

There's certainly sound economic reasons these promises ended up broken- but they are explicitly things he said publicly then failed to deliver on (broken promises, not just late ones).


That ignores the much longer list of stuff promised to a specific date that in theory could still be delivered eventually even if it's years late which is a whole different can of worms (and Elon himself has said if it's something he hasn't done before even he has no idea how long it'll really take and his dates are fundamentally nonsense guesses)



Elon is a brilliant, dynamic, exceedingly clever and innovative person who is spearheading a vastly better future.

He's not an infallible god who never gets anything wrong.

Investing like he is the second one, not the first, would not likely be the best strategy.

Good to know that every word you speak is a promise. But that's not true for most of us.