Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Paul_SF]

https://twitter.com/wholemarsblog/status/1302800023021731840?s=21

 

[Maitri982]

You know, I agree with everything you say and my itchy trigger finger has cost me some gains too but I’m holding tight now.

It’s remarkable that Tesla has so many near term catalysts that many lists like yours miss a biggie or two. One thing you didn’t mention is FSD. Elon is very confident that they are close to solving this and he reportedly drives to work almost without interventions. This will be huge, obvi, and it could drop any time over the coming months (or years?)

Bottom line - I fully agree -> don’t try to time Tesla’s climb. They do love surprises, too

Buy and hold, butt not because of FSD... That's nowhere near ready and won't be for couples of years. Plenty of other good reasons to buy.

 

[dl003]

so I was wondering what the short shorts delay to Fall message meant, so I googled fall and I ended up with more questions than answers

 

[Bet TSLA]

OMG, if FSD is solved, the stock price now will be a joke. If they really suddenly demonstrate FSD on all cars manufactured in past three years think 1.5 trillion MC in 2 weeks. And it will still be undervalued.

That is not a catalyst. That is an H bomb mushroom cloud.

FSD isn't solved. Elon hasn't said that it will be any time soon. All the chatter is about big improvements and "feature complete" which are only the first steps towards it working well, never mind being accredited and approved and legal.

The whole thing will be a gradual process towards being adequate, with many steps both forward and backward. So don't imagine any sudden "we're got it!" moment. If the stock price starts to respond to FSD expectations, it will just fall hard as reality bites.

Hey, a fun and helpful driver assist that keeps on getting better is a wonderful thing. It's just not full autonomy by a long stretch.

 

[Curt Renz]

TMIO Tesla - today:

 

[traxila]

FSD isn't solved. Elon hasn't said that it will be any time soon. All the chatter is about big improvements and "feature complete" which are only the first steps towards it working well, never mind being accredited and approved and legal.

The whole thing will be a gradual process towards being adequate, with many steps both forward and backward. So don't imagine any sudden "we're got it!" moment. If the stock price starts to respond to FSD expectations, it will just fall hard as reality bites.

Hey, a fun and helpful driver assist that keeps on getting better is a wonderful thing. It's just not full autonomy by a long stretch.

Elon has said many things about FSD.

But I was responding to the idea that FSD would be ‘solved’ which I take to mean complete. Done. I will stick to my assessment that such an announcement would detonate the SP to the moon.

No, it is nowhere near that unfortunately. Nowhere. Near. That.

 

[Mo City]

TMIO Tesla - today:

I'll again point out something to clarify Ark's prognosis on Tesla: Their $7,000 price target for TSLA (now $1,400) does not really exist. One of them admitted this in an interview I watched.

They actually have two scenarios for the future: (1) Autonomy (robotaxi network) is achieved and (2) autonomy is not achieved.

With autonomy, their pre-split range for TSLA is $15K to $22K. Without autonomy, the range is $3,400 and lower.

The $7,000 number is a middle ground talking point and not an actual prediction of theirs. If you don't believe me, just go to 4:55 of this video and view the slide with a table that makes this plain. It jumps from $3,400 to $15K. No mention of $7,000.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Kinda weird, I just noticed on my E*TRADE account that tesla SP reset to what it was at closing on Friday instead of after hours trading.
Normally this figure would not be revised until trading resumed on the next trading day. Anyone else seeing this bug on their end? Just a glitch I assume.

So did Google Charts. Noticed it yesterday. But all the big tech stocks are the same (no Fri after-hrs SP listed)

 

[Bet TSLA]

Elon has said many things about FSD.

But I was responding to the idea that FSD would be ‘solved’ which I take to mean complete. Done. I will stick to my assessment that such an announcement would detonate the SP to the moon.

No, it is nowhere near that unfortunately. Nowhere. Near. That.

No, it won't "detonate the SP to the moon". It could do that only if it were unexpected. Its gradual improvement and acceptance will mean that that can't happen. The stock price will rise gradually as the likelihood of FSD completion increases.

Of course FSD could appear instantaneously and surprisingly if a full super-human artificial general intelligence appears (i.e. the Singularity), but that would upend everything so it's not really worth considering.

 

[dl003]

correct me if Im wrong, but Ark doesnt account for energy in their model, right?

 

[riverFox]

I'll again point out something to clarify Ark's prognosis on Tesla: Their $7,000 price target for TSLA (now $1,400) does not really exist. One of them admitted this in an interview I watched.

They actually have two scenarios for the future: (1) Autonomy (robotaxi network) is achieved and (2) autonomy is not achieved.

With autonomy, their pre-split range for TSLA is $15K to $22K. Without autonomy, the range is $3,400 and lower.

The $7,000 number is a middle ground talking point and not an actual prediction of theirs. If you don't believe me, just go to 4:55 of this video and view the slide with a table that makes this plain. It jumps from $3,400 to $15K. No mention of $7,000.

What about Tesla with a ride hailing service(Uber, lyft)? Maybe this is the middle ground.

 

[Intl Professor]

For example the 5:1 split came out of nowhere.

Not sure that is accurate. A lot of us here were pushing up to 20:1 split way before Elon announced the issue could be addressed at time of annual meeting. Someone here noted the Board could decide this. Later he announced 5:1.

Edit: Changed would to could.

 

[AudubonB]

You left out ‘wealth gaps’ from the TSLAQ crowd.....

Aaaah....somehow, I’m not finding that altogether worrisome.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Somebody else's perspective

The $400B Front Run with the Index Funds Holding the Bag – Part III | The Bear Traps Report Blog

There's one statement in that blog that is very informative: (emphasis mine)

"Market participants were likely clamoring into the stock to be shareholders of record for the split."​

No further discussion or explanation was offered, they just moved on to the next topic. To me, this sounds like ass-covering (of the naked kind).

Cheers!

 

[MP3Mike]

I'll again point out something to clarify Ark's prognosis on Tesla: Their $7,000 price target for TSLA (now $1,400) does not really exist. One of them admitted this in an interview I watched.

It does actually exist:

It just isn't a scenario. It is an amalgamation of their predicted probability for 10 different scenarios:

You can read all their details here: Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

 

[MikeAtkinson]

Only about a dozen workers on site. Pumping of flooding continues. Possible outline of third factory building at 6:50 (which I don't is quite correct).

 

[Mo City]

It does actually exist:

View attachment 585276

It just isn't a scenario. It is an amalgamation of their predicted probability for 10 different scenarios:

You can read all their details here: Tesla Price Target: Tesla's Potential Trajectory During the Next Five Years

I read the article when it came out. I did the math and, yes, "expected value" calculates to $7,282.50 but it is not a scenario. It's a meaningless number in no man's land (my words) because of the huge dichotomy in outcomes between robotaxis and no robotaxis. One of the Ark folks admitted this.

 

[StealthP3D]

Interesting suggestions. However Tesla is not in the Russell 2000. It is in the Russell 1000, which includes the largest companies in the Russell 3000. The Russell 2000 includes the smallest companies in the Russell 3000.

barchart.com: Russell 1000 Index Chart, Components, Prices - Barchart.com

If Tesla continues to be excluded from the S&P 500, I'd expect more funds to make the Russell 1000 their benchmark. It better reflects the daily activity of market participants in large capitalization stocks.

Yes, the Russell 1000 is what I intended to say. Oddly, it tracks the Russell 2000 quite closely.

 

[printf42]

OT:

 

[StealthP3D]

Sold out of the final bits of my S&P this week, and a most of it the week before.

Started converting it to TSLA in upper $400's which with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight - was a bit early), as the price has come off since I started buying. (bought in the low 400's too). I realize it won't matter 10 years from now, but the sport of getting a great TSLA deal is tempting.

Timing markets has never been my forte but it's nice to end up with a decent entry point. I am happy with my core position for now - but love buying TSLA on sale.

Giving credit it where it is due - you prognosticated well @StealthP3D with your decision to sell a bit at the high. What say you about possible "TSLA on sale" periods between now and Battery Day ?

I'm not selling any TSLA for quite a while now. It might go lower or it might go on a mind-bending run higher, much higher even, no one knows. I own it for it's long-term value so the current share price, high or low, doesn't matter a whole lot to me. I suspect this bull market still has life in it but I am not as confident as I have been for the last several months.

Prices are high but precisely because Tesla is likely to grow into them and well beyond. In a nutshell, I believe Tesla will continue to perform very well as a company and I think the competition is going to have trouble making products as compelling at the same price points so I see a sugar-ton of value in TSLA. But nothing is a given obviously. You know where my bet is.