Something tells me that was a messaging issue. They had video footage of a gorgeous assembly line.
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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Something tells me that was a messaging issue. They had video footage of a gorgeous assembly line.
If IV drops to reasonable levels tomorrow and is combined with a stock price drop, might be a good time to pick up some LEAPs and/or short term calls. LEAPs just because, and short term calls to play delivery number and maybe quarterly report.
Runarbt
Active Member
I am soo hyped.. and absolute thrilled with this news. SP be damned..
This was way better than I hoped for, long term.
Long term plan for 20million cars a year, and equal in battery storage!? What year? What SP?
56% reduction is battery cost/increased range! Did they just say battery at pack level will be around $50/kWh?!
Not sure. I think if it was functional, we would have heard the output (MWh/week).
First time I cut down on my margin, 5% sold cut it by 40%. Feel pretty good about the future. 10/2 let her RIP!
This email went out today which made the decision easier
"Dear Client,
As you’ve likely observed, elevated option implied volatilities indicate that the markets will be confronting elevated volatility both before and after the November 2020 election. IBKR shares that sentiment and believe it’s appropriate to start controlling leverage in a measured fashion in advance.
Consequently, to protect IBKR and its customers, IBKR will increase margin requirements by as much as 35% above normal margin requirements leading up to the November U.S. election. To illustrate, consider a Reg. T margin account with stock XYZ having an Initial Margin requirement of 50% and a Maintenance Margin requirement of 25%. With the increase fully implemented, the new requirements would be 67.5% Initial and 33.75% Maintenance. Accounts subject to risk based margin will have their scanning ranges increased in a similar manner.
This will be implemented gradually each day, increasing Initial margin requirements from normal levels starting September 28th to a rate that will be 35% higher by October 23rd. Maintenance margin requirements will increase in a similar manner between October 5th and October 30th. The new requirements will be implemented each day, after the market closes in New York, and will be effective the next trading day.
IBKR may make additional changes to the margin on certain products, or all products, depending on volatility. This includes changes built into the standard margin model as well as any new house margin requirements that may be imposed.
Interactive Brokers Client Services"
This email went out today which made the decision easier
"Dear Client,
As you’ve likely observed, elevated option implied volatilities indicate that the markets will be confronting elevated volatility both before and after the November 2020 election. IBKR shares that sentiment and believe it’s appropriate to start controlling leverage in a measured fashion in advance.
Consequently, to protect IBKR and its customers, IBKR will increase margin requirements by as much as 35% above normal margin requirements leading up to the November U.S. election. To illustrate, consider a Reg. T margin account with stock XYZ having an Initial Margin requirement of 50% and a Maintenance Margin requirement of 25%. With the increase fully implemented, the new requirements would be 67.5% Initial and 33.75% Maintenance. Accounts subject to risk based margin will have their scanning ranges increased in a similar manner.
This will be implemented gradually each day, increasing Initial margin requirements from normal levels starting September 28th to a rate that will be 35% higher by October 23rd. Maintenance margin requirements will increase in a similar manner between October 5th and October 30th. The new requirements will be implemented each day, after the market closes in New York, and will be effective the next trading day.
IBKR may make additional changes to the margin on certain products, or all products, depending on volatility. This includes changes built into the standard margin model as well as any new house margin requirements that may be imposed.
Interactive Brokers Client Services"
Well, I’m happy and now more confident than ever to stick with this investment for a long, long time. I was afraid of all the hype that started, but this was a solid, logical, no nonsense, not out in fantasy land analysis for the future of our company. Confident and more proud than ever of Tesla (and the fact that I own 0.000000000000000000001 % of it) 
mickificki
Member
I don't think Elon's comment on valuation or profitability was the problem per se.
But very objectively watching the presentation, you don't get the sense that this is a company that necessarily wants to return money to its shareholders (eventually -- over whatever horizon). At the end of the day, if people believe a company will develop incredibly valuable technology and then recycle all profits therefrom in the name of a dream without a tangible return then they will not -- cannot -- pay for the technology what it is worth.
For a long time, companies like Amazon and Apple managed incredible market values without returning any capital to shareholders because they weren't run by people with ambitious visions of going to Mars or bringing about a sustainable future and could only hope to reinvest profits into further profit generating ventures. This isn't a bearish comment on Tesla at all. Just that the unreferenced emphasis on a sustainable future is not necessarily comforting for many investors.
But very objectively watching the presentation, you don't get the sense that this is a company that necessarily wants to return money to its shareholders (eventually -- over whatever horizon). At the end of the day, if people believe a company will develop incredibly valuable technology and then recycle all profits therefrom in the name of a dream without a tangible return then they will not -- cannot -- pay for the technology what it is worth.
For a long time, companies like Amazon and Apple managed incredible market values without returning any capital to shareholders because they weren't run by people with ambitious visions of going to Mars or bringing about a sustainable future and could only hope to reinvest profits into further profit generating ventures. This isn't a bearish comment on Tesla at all. Just that the unreferenced emphasis on a sustainable future is not necessarily comforting for many investors.
Reductionist
Member
Notes from Battery day:
(everything I thought was significant in one post, to avoid clutter)
### General note: The presentation was extremely information dense, which in my opinion has caused the "nothing new" sentiment that some are expressing here, because there isn't one shiny thing as a takeaway. I hope this is useful in digesting the new info. ###
Presentation:
- Long Term: 10TWh global annual battery production needed for transition to sustainable transport, additional 10TWh/y for energy storage
- Current Tech: 135 Giga Nevada's, $2T investment, 2.8M people needed for this goal => drastic improvement in efficiency needed
- Plan to halve the cost per kWh (!)
- Kato Road pilot plant has 10GWh design capacity, to be reached in about a year
- Production plants to be ~200GWh/y
- Dry electrode process
- "Tesla is aiming to be the best at manufacturing of any company on earth", manufacturing as long term competitive advantage
- Formation 25% of CAPEX
- 75% CAPEX reduction *across plant*
- Tesla goals:
- Raw Silicon anode
- Tesla to use Lithium clays in Nevada (rights secured by Tesla), acid free saline extraction
- Front and rear of the car single-piece cast, connected by a structural battery pack
- 3 years from compelling $25k car *at a profit*
- PLAID:
Q&A:
- Cell production in Berlin confirmed
- HVAC a "pet project" of Elon
- Direct sales in Texas will "hopefully be cleared up in the future"
- Stationary storage is a 25 year asset or greater => essential for storage cost, environmental concerns
- "could overdo cell production and supply to others", but already going as fast as possible on cell production
- "presenting a model to other maunfacturers on how to vertically integrate cell production" and battery architechture/chemistry across product stack
- V2G possible through software in Europe, need addtional hardware in the US (due to Plug differences), limited opportunity, want to keep storage and automotive mostly seperate, may still be done at some point, not a priority
- ~3 years until cost/feature parity between Tesla and ICE in the $25k market segment, already there in higher priced segments
- "massive problem[...] need everybody's help[...] It's everyone's planet" (from employee)
(everything I thought was significant in one post, to avoid clutter)
### General note: The presentation was extremely information dense, which in my opinion has caused the "nothing new" sentiment that some are expressing here, because there isn't one shiny thing as a takeaway. I hope this is useful in digesting the new info. ###
Presentation:
- Long Term: 10TWh global annual battery production needed for transition to sustainable transport, additional 10TWh/y for energy storage
- Current Tech: 135 Giga Nevada's, $2T investment, 2.8M people needed for this goal => drastic improvement in efficiency needed
- Plan to halve the cost per kWh (!)
- not dependent on a single innovation => no single point of failure
- Tabless cell => improved charge rate vs. cell diameter curve
- 5x shorter electrical path
- 20% higher power density due to tabless
- 16% higher range from form factor alone
- 14% $/kWh reduction from form factor+tabless
- 4680 cell- 20% higher power density due to tabless
- 16% higher range from form factor alone
- 14% $/kWh reduction from form factor+tabless
- Kato Road pilot plant has 10GWh design capacity, to be reached in about a year
- Production plants to be ~200GWh/y
- Dry electrode process
- 10x footprint reduction
- 10x energy reduction
- "close to working" => does work, currrently poor yield
- 20GWh/y per line, 7x increase per line- 10x energy reduction
- "close to working" => does work, currrently poor yield
- "Tesla is aiming to be the best at manufacturing of any company on earth", manufacturing as long term competitive advantage
- Formation 25% of CAPEX
- 86% CAPEX reduction
- 75% footprint reduction
- 10x production density increase *across plant*- 75% footprint reduction
- 75% CAPEX reduction *across plant*
- Tesla goals:
- 200Gwh/y in 2022, 100GWh internal
- 3TWh/y in 2030
- Formation+dry electrode: 18% $/kWh reduction- 3TWh/y in 2030
- Raw Silicon anode
- Ion polymer coating, integrate with binder
- 5% $/kWh reduction
- Zero Cobalt- design for expansion, don't fight it
- 20% range increase- 5% $/kWh reduction
- 15% $/kWh reduction on cathode level
- 3 battery cathode tiers:- LFP, NMx (33% Manganese, 66% Nickel), Nickel, depending on application
- Cathode production *very* complicated, in part due to organic process/supply chain growth => potential- metallic Nickel, no sulfate
- 66% less CAPEX
- 76% less process cost
- no wastewater
- simpler recycling
- 80% less miles travelled
- 12% $/kWh reduction
- 33% reduction in lithium cost- 66% less CAPEX
- 76% less process cost
- no wastewater
- simpler recycling
- 80% less miles travelled
- 12% $/kWh reduction
- Tesla to use Lithium clays in Nevada (rights secured by Tesla), acid free saline extraction
- TWh scale supply secured
- (No Lithium coup in Bolivia?! I'm shocked I tell you, shocked!)
- 100% cell recycling *today* by third parties, in house recycling starting to ramp up next quarter at Giga Nevada- (No Lithium coup in Bolivia?! I'm shocked I tell you, shocked!)
- Front and rear of the car single-piece cast, connected by a structural battery pack
- no modules
- non cell portion of pack "has negative mass" because of mass savings in other parts of the vehicle
- pack is a "honeycomb stucture between face sheets" => exremely high stiffness, higher than normal car
- better volumetric efficiency => cells more in the center of the vehicle => less chance of cell puncture during side impact
- 10% mass reduction (of pack or vehicle?)
- 14% range improvement opportunity
- much simpler vehicle production
- Grand Total (POTENTIAL, not currently realized):- non cell portion of pack "has negative mass" because of mass savings in other parts of the vehicle
- pack is a "honeycomb stucture between face sheets" => exremely high stiffness, higher than normal car
- better volumetric efficiency => cells more in the center of the vehicle => less chance of cell puncture during side impact
- 10% mass reduction (of pack or vehicle?)
- 14% range improvement opportunity
- much simpler vehicle production
- 54% range increase
- 56% less $/kWh (pack level)
- 69% less CAPEX per GWh (cell level)
- start seeing benefits in 12-18 months
- full potential probably achieved in about 3 years
- Long term: 20M car sales per year- 56% less $/kWh (pack level)
- 69% less CAPEX per GWh (cell level)
- start seeing benefits in 12-18 months
- full potential probably achieved in about 3 years
- 3 years from compelling $25k car *at a profit*
- PLAID:
- <2 sec 0-60, <9 sec quarter mile, >1100hp
- "best track time of any production car ever"
- preoders open now, available end of 2021
- 520+mi range, 200mph
- 140k
- No mention of energy density on cell or pack level, only range increase potential, likely to keep OEMs guessing as to where the range improvements come from exactly (eg cell vs pack level)- "best track time of any production car ever"
- preoders open now, available end of 2021
- 520+mi range, 200mph
- 140k
Q&A:
- Cell production in Berlin confirmed
- HVAC a "pet project" of Elon
- Direct sales in Texas will "hopefully be cleared up in the future"
- Stationary storage is a 25 year asset or greater => essential for storage cost, environmental concerns
- "could overdo cell production and supply to others", but already going as fast as possible on cell production
- no direct intention of supplying other OEMs, will be done if Tesla has a production capacity surplus (ie if they can scale beyond their needs reasonably)
- approach to potential Nickel shortage: powertrain efficiency improvements to make LFP viable => limit Nickel consumption- "presenting a model to other maunfacturers on how to vertically integrate cell production" and battery architechture/chemistry across product stack
- V2G possible through software in Europe, need addtional hardware in the US (due to Plug differences), limited opportunity, want to keep storage and automotive mostly seperate, may still be done at some point, not a priority
- ~3 years until cost/feature parity between Tesla and ICE in the $25k market segment, already there in higher priced segments
- "massive problem[...] need everybody's help[...] It's everyone's planet" (from employee)
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One thing analysts don't get about the future is that it eventually arrives. Do they want to react to it, or prepare for it?
Yup, beat me to it
"In 12 months we will produce roughly 5% of the worlds batteries and 20% of what we outsourced last year. By 2030 we will produce 10x what the entire world produced last year. Last year we made zero batteries. These will be less than half the cost of current batteries"
I don't know how that's not mind blowing.
Lol. Or just to give up.
Ultium specs?
“Objects in the mirror are farther than they appear”
ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
Yeah, I'm not so sure we're gonna drop much more. But Elon needs to start doing his presentations on Saturday mornings from now on.
And seriously, start organizing questions and how to end a bit. Our High School business project handled that part better 40 years ago.
The new bear thesis will be... 2-3 years? Deep-pocketed legacy companies will crush Tesla within that time. lol. Just like they have been going to do in the 8 years since the S.
Few understand that Battery Day is like handing out 2-3 year TSLA LEAPs to every shareholder. It's reminiscent to when Shanghai was just barely on the horizon, about 2 years ago. The pre-split price was about $170. Those of us who had a better grasp of what was coming paid peanuts for 18 month OTM calls to sellers who gladly took a few hundred dollars for them.
Of course LEAPs don't wait to suddenly gain their value the day before expiry. They appreciate in proportion to the widespread inexorable realization of what's coming as it draws nearer.
Few understand that Battery Day is like handing out 2-3 year TSLA LEAPs to every shareholder. It's reminiscent to when Shanghai was just barely on the horizon, about 2 years ago. The pre-split price was about $170. Those of us who had a better grasp of what was coming paid peanuts for 18 month OTM calls to sellers who gladly took a few hundred dollars for them.
Of course LEAPs don't wait to suddenly gain their value the day before expiry. They appreciate in proportion to the widespread inexorable realization of what's coming as it draws nearer.
The significance of the battery technology is not appreciated yet.
it’ll take some time. More importantly the time horizon of 12-18 months is pretty impressive for the progress.
increased output, lower cost, increased ROI on capex. All sounds great to me.
it’ll take some time. More importantly the time horizon of 12-18 months is pretty impressive for the progress.
increased output, lower cost, increased ROI on capex. All sounds great to me.
My Super Powers to make the SP do the opposite of what I want are still intact....I'm a slow learner. SP usually drops with these events, but I just picked up 1,000 shares anyway that I'm using to write more covered calls. Just a warning that when I buy, the SP usually drops, so you can expect 300s tomorrow....
Even though battery day exceeded my expectations and TESLA really will have no competition, ever!
For the people complaining about $TSLA SP dropping AH....do y'all remember just 2 weeks ago we hit a AH low of $308? Let that digest for a little while. Tesla just secured their 5-10 year lead on EVERYONE.
Insanely good battery specs! Love that we have moved past the rumor stage!
And thanks to the split I might be able to pick up a share or two during the obligatory dip.
And thanks to the split I might be able to pick up a share or two during the obligatory dip.
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