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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable
- Thread starter AudubonB
- Start date
Bet TSLA
Active Member
If you need a good laugh, The Motley Fool has a new exercise in stupid: Forget Tesla's Battery Day, These EV Stories Are More Important | The Motley Fool.
A couple of gems: Tesla's stock has more than tripled year to date... [True! It has also more than quadrupled.] We've seen Tesla's answer to the heavy-truck problem: The Semi, a radical-looking battery-electric heavy truck that Tesla plans to begin building in a to-be-constructed factory in Texas at some point in the next few years. [True! Within the year is certainly a point in the next few.]
A couple of gems: Tesla's stock has more than tripled year to date... [True! It has also more than quadrupled.] We've seen Tesla's answer to the heavy-truck problem: The Semi, a radical-looking battery-electric heavy truck that Tesla plans to begin building in a to-be-constructed factory in Texas at some point in the next few years. [True! Within the year is certainly a point in the next few.]
Thats what private messages are for! Hint, hint
On no information whatsoever I suspect that you could probably sell almost any alcohol under the name NAFTA in [strike]USSR[/strike].To keep this On Topic, a discussion is in order regarding what is entailed for an extant corporation to obtain the necessary licenses to distill spirits. It may be fairly straightforward, I don’t know. Except in California.
Also, the name “Teslaquila” oughtn’t be a problem if it’s not sold in Mexico, as I’m going to venture that the US and Mexico, regardless of NAFTA/USMCA, haven’t reciprocal Domaine name restrictions. In other words, probably little problem if you want to set up your own Kentucky Bourbon distillery in Jalisco - go for it! Just don’t try to export it north.
On Edit: @RobStark shot down all THAT while I was typing.
Well, almost all of it.
I see that this forum has a mix of people who (i) only buy and hold (ii) buy and hold and do some options trading as an integral part of investment strategy and (iii) do heavy options trading that has no connection with an overall investment strategy.
There are discussions in this forum (sometimes heated
) on the merits of these approaches. The discussions pretty much focus on the merits of each approach as it serves the goal of maximizing wealth.
I believe there are certain other issues related to options trading that don’t get brought up but that are important to consider.
There are discussions in this forum (sometimes heated
) on the merits of these approaches. The discussions pretty much focus on the merits of each approach as it serves the goal of maximizing wealth.I believe there are certain other issues related to options trading that don’t get brought up but that are important to consider.
- When a person buys stock, she injects capital into the system for the company’s growth and if the company does well, her benefitting from the stock appreciation can be considered as justifiably earned. If a person makes money on short term options, how did she contribute to the collective and in what way can she justify to herself how she is deserving of taking something from the common kitty? I believe this question becomes especially pertinent for people who invest in Tesla to support its lofty mission to save the planet.
- I believe the experience of highs and lows from options trading leaves a strong impression in the mind. Drinking in this experience for prolonged periods leads to these impressions taking deep roots in the subconscious that are difficult to shake off and can lead to addiction. Addictive behavior shares a common trait with fire. Feeding it does not quench it, it makes it more thirsty and desirous of more intense and more frequent engagement with the experience.
That bolded part would be true if it concerns an emission of stock, where capital goes into the company. Later transactions may or may not contribute to the company's wellbeing. AIUI. (But perhaps to the investors'!)I see that this forum has a mix of people who (i) only buy and hold (ii) buy and hold and do some options trading as an integral part of investment strategy and (iii) do heavy options trading that has no connection with an overall investment strategy.
There are discussions in this forum (sometimes heated
I believe there are certain other issues related to options trading that don’t get brought up but that are important to consider.
- When a person buys stock, she injects capital into the system for the company’s growth and if the company does well, her benefitting from the stock appreciation can be considered as justifiably earned. If a person makes money on short term options, how did she contribute to the collective and in what way can she justify to herself how she is deserving of taking something from the common kitty? I believe this question becomes especially pertinent for people who invest in Tesla to support its lofty mission to save the planet.
- I believe the experience of highs and lows from options trading leaves a strong impression in the mind. Drinking in this experience for prolonged periods leads to these impressions taking deep roots in the subconscious that are difficult to shake off and can lead to addiction. Addictive behavior shares a common trait with fire. Feeding it does not quench it, it makes it more thirsty and desirous of more intense and more frequent engagement with the experience.
Weekend OT:
I just realized that my share of Tesla I own produces a few cars this year and will produce a few cars every month (when Tesla produces 4M cars/year)
My part of Tesla will also produce more than a dozen Megawatt of battery storeage per year when the company produces 3TW pa.
I just realiazed that I own a relevant part of the 1B outstanding shares ;-) I proud and happy
My part of Tesla will also produce more than a dozen Megawatt of battery storeage per year when the company produces 3TW pa.
I just realiazed that I own a relevant part of the 1B outstanding shares ;-) I proud and happy
Tesla-Bjørn Nyland has an amusing game in this video where he tells the name of the EVs he can see while passing the weekend traffic of people driving from Oslo and up to their mountain cabins.
No extra points for guessing which brand is mentioned most frequently.
No extra points for guessing which brand is mentioned most frequently.
You're lucky. All my shares go to paying for snacks in the factory common rooms.Weekend OT:
I just realized that my share of Tesla I own produces a few cars this year and will produce a few cars every month (when Tesla produces 4M cars/year)
My part of Tesla will also produce more than a dozen Megawatt of battery storeage per year when the company produces 3TW pa.
I just realiazed that I own a relevant part of the 1B outstanding shares ;-) I proud and happy
willow_hiller
Well-Known Member
New tweet by Elon thanking the Tesla Team for deliveries this quarter, and thanking customers for being understanding. Evidently this quarter has been difficult logistically: https://twitter.com/elonmusk/status/1309942048410071040?s=20
Apparently Milton bought the drawings to the Nikola Semi, despite his claims he drew them in his basement.
Nikola founder bought truck designs from third party
Not good for their lawsuit against Tesla.
Trevor these days:
Nikola founder bought truck designs from third party
Not good for their lawsuit against Tesla.
Trevor these days:
Look at it this way: over the last quarters @Troy has been off in his estimates on production and deliveries by only a few percent. If the possble record Elon was referring to would be a record not for California, North America or Fremont but for worldwide deliveries, this would imply a miss by Troy of about 20%. How likely is that? Remember, Troy uses not only official registration stats but also VIN numbers reported by new Tesla owners.
About battery day.
I found it very reassuring that they presented several aspect of improvements that are pretty orthogonal to each other.
Elon has been late before to put it lightly. Although recently he's been early w.r.t. model Y prod, giga shanghai and berlin. Yet The semi has not started production, it's overdue.
The good thing about these battery improvements that are independent of each other, is that there's no more bet the farm thing like the model 3 anymore. Now we have multiple ventures inside Tesla, anyone of their success contribute to the top and bottom line. It's like spreading our bet over many startups. And I really like that.
I found it very reassuring that they presented several aspect of improvements that are pretty orthogonal to each other.
Elon has been late before to put it lightly. Although recently he's been early w.r.t. model Y prod, giga shanghai and berlin. Yet The semi has not started production, it's overdue.
The good thing about these battery improvements that are independent of each other, is that there's no more bet the farm thing like the model 3 anymore. Now we have multiple ventures inside Tesla, anyone of their success contribute to the top and bottom line. It's like spreading our bet over many startups. And I really like that.
StealthP3D
Well-Known Member
Tesla will not protect their competitive advantage by only licensing a portion of their innovation while sitting on their collective butts - they will maintain their competitive advantage by continuing to out-innovate the "competition".
But this is actually a moot point for at least the coming 5 years because Tesla's real competition is the 98% of sales that are ICE. And, as most of us know, ICE is not competition to a Tesla in anything but low purchase price which is a pendulum that is irreversibly swinging in favor of EV. Since ICE cannot compete with EV, Tesla has five years to grow as fast they can add production capacity - if their EV "competition" steps up to the plate to deliver the cars Tesla can't, that will simply help speed the transition to sustainable transport.
Tesla could share all their manufacturing innovations, as soon as they implement them, and the others would STILL never catch up on price/functionality. On top of that, I expect the Supercharger Network will take a huge leap forward in about 2-3 years, perhaps a bit sooner. The increased functionality this offers to Tesla owners will just increase Tesla's margins that much more vs. "competitors" without a mature network. As Tesla's with free Supercharging become an increasingly small portion of the fleet, the Superchargers will inevitably swing from being a capital drain overall to adding to the bottom line which will cause Tesla to accelerate deployments in out-of-the way places.
What competition?
Anyone remember if he was off or not for Q1 2019?
Edi: Got it right here. He was pretty spot on even though I remember we gave him *sugar* for the low ball estimates.
Yeah we should trust his numbers.
https://twitter.com/TroyTeslike/status/1113631613609500672/photo/1
This. I think some of stock drop was 'oh Tesla is relying the success of a really complicated roadmap to 56% reduction in $, it won't happen!'
Each development is mostly independent of the others.
I'm gonna rank these in order of "likely to successfully execute in the near future".
- Vehicle Integration 7% improvement - This one seems the simplest to explain and execute, can't see why this wouldn't happen.
- Cell design (bigger, tabless) 14% improvement - Definitely a leap forward, but the bigger size and lower heat are amazing.
- Various cathodes 12% improvement - Ranking this here because 3 different battery chemistries provide room for failure. If Nickel is short, focus on nickel/magnesium. And the iron battery seems like a no-brainer.
- Cell factory simplification (dry electrode) 18% improvement - Elon admitted to this step being difficult, and could see this being the step that causes 'Elon Time'. But only maybe, 3 years is a lot of time to work on this.
- Silicon anode 5% improvement - Ranking last because very little was said about this step, and it's a bit out of left field. Nobody was expecting some sort of elastic polymer to allow for silicon expansion. In any case, least amount of improvement, least important in the list.
Not only is Tesla likely, in the long run, to exceed several of these projections, they've also given themselves a tremendous opportunity to take their success in small chunks. Any one of these improvements alone should strike fear into ICE manufacturers. Two would have made a great battery day. All 5 is just bananas and almost cruel how far ahead they are of the competition.
The SP doesn't reflect this reality. They assign a risk of this 100% not working, they (analysts) assume a longer timeline, but in reality there's almost no world in which Tesla doesn't realize at least SOME of these improvements immediately.
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