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This. I think some of stock drop was 'oh Tesla is relying the success of a really complicated roadmap to 56% reduction in $, it won't happen!'

Each development is mostly independent of the others.

I'm gonna rank these in order of "likely to successfully execute in the near future".
  1. Vehicle Integration 7% improvement - This one seems the simplest to explain and execute, can't see why this wouldn't happen.
  2. Cell design (bigger, tabless) 14% improvement - Definitely a leap forward, but the bigger size and lower heat are amazing.
  3. Various cathodes 12% improvement - Ranking this here because 3 different battery chemistries provide room for failure. If Nickel is short, focus on nickel/magnesium. And the iron battery seems like a no-brainer.
  4. Cell factory simplification (dry electrode) 18% improvement - Elon admitted to this step being difficult, and could see this being the step that causes 'Elon Time'. But only maybe, 3 years is a lot of time to work on this.
  5. Silicon anode 5% improvement - Ranking last because very little was said about this step, and it's a bit out of left field. Nobody was expecting some sort of elastic polymer to allow for silicon expansion. In any case, least amount of improvement, least important in the list.
I think they will execute on all 5. But let's sandbag and say 4 & 5 take too long to happen. #1 and #2 and #3 all seem very possible and lead to a 33% reduction in cost even without progress on #4 and #5.

Not only is Tesla likely, in the long run, to exceed several of these projections, they've also given themselves a tremendous opportunity to take their success in small chunks. Any one of these improvements alone should strike fear into ICE manufacturers. Two would have made a great battery day. All 5 is just bananas and almost cruel how far ahead they are of the competition.

The SP doesn't reflect this reality. They assign a risk of this 100% not working, they (analysts) assume a longer timeline, but in reality there's almost no world in which Tesla doesn't realize at least SOME of these improvements immediately.

The problem is that your step #4, DBE, isn't optional. If they can't do it they would require much more factory space and expense to be able to build the solvent based electrode process. So as far as I can see it is in the one required innovation.
 
The problem is that your step #4, DBE, isn't optional. If they can't do it they would require much more factory space and expense to be able to build the solvent based electrode process. So as far as I can see it is in the one required innovation.

It would be more difficult and slow their growth rate, for sure. To be clear it's the biggest piece responsible for investment per gwh side of things.

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Still a 35% improvement (of the 69%) if they were to somehow have to stick with a wet electrode. Better than nothing?!
 
Yeah #4 is not only a huge chunk of the investment cost but they would still have to build much larger factories which is not just cost, it will also slow down the build up. Even at Tesla speed larger factories take longer to build than small ones.

Actually I think most of them is more dependent on each other than many here seems to think. If they have 3 of 5 solved but think the next 2 will be solved in 6 months? What then? Will they go ahead and build everything for those 3 and then makes changes after just after a few months?
 
Good aftermorning all! Beautiful day in SE Washington today. Hadn't seen this article from Forbes posted yet so here goes... pretty positive!

Forbes: Tesla’s $25,000 Electric Car Means Game Over For Gas And Oil.
Tesla’s $25,000 Electric Car Means Game Over For Gas And Oil

I don't know. As far as I can see, Chevy Bolt are sold at $26500 or less in many dealers now in the US. How come the Game Over for Gas hasn't happened yet?
 
Shanghai factory flyover. Construction and cleanup continues, but manufacturing still appears to be idle. There are very few Model 3 visible on site. Solar panels have been installed in at least three different areas of the new building rooftops, but not at large scale.

I think the 'solar panels' are actually thermal hot water tubes. If you look closely you can see through the 'panels'. These tube are mostly manufactured in China and afford excellent energy efficiency.
 
Yeah #4 is not only a huge chunk of the investment cost but they would still have to build much larger factories which is not just cost, it will also slow down the build up. Even at Tesla speed larger factories take longer to build than small ones.

Actually I think most of them is more dependent on each other than many here seems to think. If they have 3 of 5 solved but think the next 2 will be solved in 6 months? What then? Will they go ahead and build everything for those 3 and then makes changes after just after a few months?

I agree, but would like to point out that these "what ifs" are exactly why there is a pilot production line. Tesla will most certainly solve these problems before mass deployment.

And in typical Tesla fashion, we probably won't even know about it until there is a tweet from Elon along the lines of "just finished Roadrunner line deployment in Berlin".
 
I don't know. As far as I can see, Chevy Bolt are sold at $26500 or less in many dealers now in the US. How come the Game Over for Gas hasn't happened yet?


Because GM is losing ~$15k on each one sold and is not incentivized to produce 1 more than required to meet CARB/CAFE requirements.

Tesla making ~2,500 on each Model 2 and more margin as they increase the economies of scale are incentivized to produce Model 2 in the millions.
 
I agree, but would like to point out that these "what ifs" are exactly why there is a pilot production line. Tesla will most certainly solve these problems before mass deployment.

And in typical Tesla fashion, we probably won't even know about it until there is a tweet from Elon along the lines of "just finished Roadrunner line deployment in Berlin".
 
I don't know. As far as I can see, Chevy Bolt are sold at $26500 or less in many dealers now in the US. How come the Game Over for Gas hasn't happened yet?

You underestimate the power of brand. Elon Musk's 25k car will take over the world. You know ever since launch America and battery day the Chinese media can't stop talking Elon? Every sneeze from Elon became national news. This is the power of the Tesla brand. Demand is now unlimited. Everyone clearly see that one man with the best engineers in the world has brought America's technological advancement back to the lead as Huawei, Samsung, Tsmc, and other mega corporations taking the crown.

So no one gives a crap about the bolt or anything else right now. Musk is at peak brand power. It's a shame many people here doesn't appreciate it, but those who appreciates physics and engineering like us Chinese are more than impressed.
 
Why? For example, why can't they produce tabless large cells with wet method?

They could, but it would require much more space and expense. (The wet electrode process is what take the majority of the space in the Panasonic cell factory in GigaNevada.) There probably isn't room for the wet electrode method in their Kato road pilot plant. Which would mean they would have to do it somewhere else.
 
I would go out and buy one if I didn't know that they are losing ton of money on the car and likely won't support the product long term.
Currently every ev that's not a Tesla are depreciating worst than any other car. They are stuck in which the brand power doesn't justify one buying new to "show off" unlike high depreciating luxury brands so it's not worth the depreciation hit.