Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Paul_SF]

 

[Runarbt]

You are right Elon has never suggested V2V as being necessary. However, when you have mastered FSD and have a mature fleet of self-driving cars, it would be strange for them to not communicate.

....also, I think the broader point was that if we get to that point and the cars communicate with each other, signals would not be necessary.

When FSD is mastered, you dont really need V2V. When every car follow the speed limits and traffic rules - they already know what other cars will do. With FSD in all cars, they will in addition react the same way to identical situation and won't really need to talk to each other. It will be efficient and smooth anyway.

We humans dont yell at each other to make traffic flow? Well, some do.. but that normally doesnt help that much.

Only reason to connect cars even further, are if we have too limited space on the roads and need to pack cars bumper to bumper. That wont happen until humans are banned, and all cars run by the same FSD rules.

 

[Causalien]

OT Weekend Edition:

I have a problem that I need help with, if anyone here can spare some time to think about it.

I need a system that can generate at least $600,000/year, in perpetuity. Or at least for as long as possible.


I thought for a while now how to really impact people’s lives and what I came up with is a monthly payment for the first 25people, as importance, to your life. Family and close friends.

$2000/month per person. Till death, with the option to be willed as any other asset.

Looking forward to hearing your opinion.

Thank you in advance!

Happy Weekend to ALL!

P.

ps: mods, just delete this if it’s not suitable for this thread. Thanks

I do agree we should elevate the ppl around us, but some might take it as an insult.

 

[stef]

There we go, even Ford is now on board with the “Tesla is not an automaker” story, so much they are even shouting it from rooftops!
Time to show this to the last few reluctant analysts

 

[StealthP3D]

There we go, even Ford is now on board with the “Tesla is not an automaker” story, so much they are even shouting it from rooftops!
Time to show this to the last few reluctant analysts

Maybe it's because Ford's advertising dept. thinks Tesla is not an American automaker. I mean, think about it. "Tesla" kinda sounds French or something.

And Tesla styling is far too sexy to be an American car.

 

[stef]

Maybe it's because Ford's advertising dept. thinks Tesla is not an American automaker. I mean, think about it. "Tesla" kinda sounds French or something.

And Tesla styling is far too sexy to be an American car.

True... maybe I’m giving them too much credit... they can’t that smart can they?!

 

[UkNorthampton]

When FSD is mastered, you dont really need V2V. When every car follow the speed limits and traffic rules - they already know what other cars will do. With FSD in all cars, they will in addition react the same way to identical situation and won't really need to talk to each other. It will be efficient and smooth anyway.

We humans dont yell at each other to make traffic flow? Well, some do.. but that normally doesnt help that much.

Only reason to connect cars even further, are if we have too limited space on the roads and need to pack cars bumper to bumper. That wont happen until humans are banned, and all cars run by the same FSD rules.

off topic - FSD-eye-contact-roundabouts

Spoiler

Fish/birds can detect pressure from other fish in the school and adjust. I think vehicles will communicate with each other, it's trivial. Robotaxis may even have a premium fare vs value giving priority (eg. late for airport, pay more).

Eye Contact

Humans make eye contact, give signs (wave people on, 'after you') and they notice how cars are driven, if people are paying attention, arguing. Could be a problem with FSD in UK - we're taught to make eye contact while driving. We're not meant to sign to others to go ahead (on driving test) but do in real life.

In the UK - we have loads of roundabouts. I like them, the RoW needs more. The worst ones in common use are 3-way mini roundabouts. You often get 2 people driving up at around the same time and not knowing who should go. Rarely happens with 4 way roundabouts, but with 3 ways, it happens a lot.

Of course you do need some proper roundabouts as well - 6 mini roundabouts (plus big one in middle with river flowing through it) with 3 way entry on mini roundabouts, 6 roads joining. The Magic Roundabout - Hemel Hempstead - 6 roads, 6 roundabouts. : interestingasfuck

Some prefer Swindon's https://swindonian.files.wordpress.com/2013/09/postcard-of-magic-roundabout.jpg

Or Colchester Colechester - Dull Men's Club

Fun with junctions - BBC NEWS | UK | England | London | London road junction 'scariest'
Top 10 scariest junctions (UK):

• Hanger Lane Gyratory System, west London
• Spaghetti Junction, Birmingham
• Marble Arch, central London
• Elephant and Castle, south London
• South Mimms, A1/M25, Herts
• M4/M5 interchange, Bristol
• Magic Roundabout, Swindon, Wiltshire
• M8 junctions through central Glasgow
• Mancunian Way junctions, Manchester
• Sheriffhall Roundabout, Edinburgh

 

[Tslynk67]

Unless you get hit by someone like me that exercises the call early before you get a chance to roll it.



I'm pretty sure that a roll is just a buy to cover followed by a sell to open. So the $5k loss would be realized at that time. (It isn't "rolled" into your new CC.)

Certainly the case for me, I don't have a roll option available, it's a sell and a buy - I've argued with my accountant over this, but no way around it.

 

[jerry33]

If vision is solved I guess I'm not entirely clear what they get having extra hardware used, or software written, just to talk to each other directly?

The cars already feed traffic data back to the mothership and it's used for routing on the whole fleet...As vision gets perfect it's likely going to also report back things like accidents, debris on the roads, potholes, etc.... all of which makes far more sense to report back to the mothership for the whole fleet to be told about rather than having one specific car talking to one other specific car over and over to spread that data....

So if vision is already solved, V2V gets you... what, specifically? I'm open to there being a useful answer to that but vision really covers a lot.

Mostly agree, but what I can see is avoiding those hundred car pileups where there is less time for stopping than the processing speed allows just on vision plus radar. There's also the potential for emergency vehicle clearance (where the emergency vehicle sends a signal which could be detected before it comes into visual range (or visual range is blocked by other vehicles). It doesn't take too much imagination to think of other situations where it could be useful (e.g. the car in front is going very slow, why?).

 

[Todd Burch]

To be fair, you can’t stand for reduced greenhouse gas emissions if you have none at all. Tesla clearly stands for none.

 

[juanmedina]

Some weekend OT this guys are making battery packs for lots of OEMs and I really like Mate. I would love to own some Rimac. He talks about the OEMs that he is working with at the 19 min mark:

 

[H Mak]

I have been thinking about December 21st and what if anything to do if extraordinary things happen to the share price.

I am a strictly long term buy and hold investor, indeed I have previously stated on here that my shares are not for sale. But just suppose that for technical reasons rather than fundamental ones, the price decouples from reality for a short time. What then? Typically when a pricing mismatch occurs, it creates an opportunity to exploit the situation. Of course often with a widely anticipated event like this, it ends up being a damp squib. But it might not, and if not, I want to have a plan, rather than be caught in a blind panic.

So I have created a selling plan. This is very much a top-slicing exercise rather than dipping into what I consider my core holding. I have set price points at $50 intervals starting at $600 and have calculated exactly how many shares to sell at each price and also which will be sold out of my tax free ISA and which ones from my taxable trading account.

The perfect outcome would be to buy back once the price settles down after the frenzy. If that doesn't happen however, then no bother, as my core holding will be worth significantly more and I will have a load of cash on my balance sheet. I have considered all the possible scenarios and am comfortable with each of them.

I would add that if something really stupid happens, such as an infinity squeeze, as happened with VW a few years ago, then I might have to ditch the plan and revert to blind panic

 

[Tslynk67]

Well how about selling a $1000 CC for Jan ‘23? Pays $7.1k per contract. Sell 14 of ‘em for $100k to use as instant cash (or essentially earning about 1k per week for the next 2 years guaranteed and paid upfront).

Then either part with 1,400 shares in 2 years or see it expiring below strike and take the free premium. Or buy it back at 5% price when the stock / IV drops again.

I think that's a poor play. IV is still too low right now to be selling calls, especially LEAPS like that which essentially tie-up $700k of capital for over two years.

Beginning of September, Dec 18th $700's were selling for $32, so that gives you some idea how poor the premiums are for the moment.

I would maintain that selling calls on a quarterly basis is the sweet spot.

 

[Prunesquallor]

A giant sucking sound heard from Detroit.

 

[kbM3]

If vision is solved I guess I'm not entirely clear what they get having extra hardware used, or software written, just to talk to each other directly?

The cars already feed traffic data back to the mothership and it's used for routing on the whole fleet...As vision gets perfect it's likely going to also report back things like accidents, debris on the roads, potholes, etc.... all of which makes far more sense to report back to the mothership for the whole fleet to be told about rather than having one specific car talking to one other specific car over and over to spread that data....

So if vision is already solved, V2V gets you... what, specifically? I'm open to there being a useful answer to that but vision really covers a lot.

They certainly can't make any assumptions about what to do at a non-working light just talking to each other- at least not until every vehicle on the road is in on the same conversation....and also incapable of being manually driven by someone NOT in on the conversation....

V2V seems like one of those things that sounds great in theory, less great in practice....especially if you've got vision solved.

See again the original V2V standard has been around over 20 years now and basically nobody's bothered doing much with it.

That's not even getting into the nasty stuff hackers could get up to if your car starts relying on what another car 'tells it' rather than what it actually sees for itself or gets securely from Tesla- but that's getting pretty far down a rabbit hole that likely belongs over here someplace-

Autopilot & Autonomous/FSD

When FSD is mastered, you dont really need V2V. When every car follow the speed limits and traffic rules - they already know what other cars will do. With FSD in all cars, they will in addition react the same way to identical situation and won't really need to talk to each other. It will be efficient and smooth anyway.

We humans dont yell at each other to make traffic flow? Well, some do.. but that normally doesnt help that much.

Only reason to connect cars even further, are if we have too limited space on the roads and need to pack cars bumper to bumper. That wont happen until humans are banned, and all cars run by the same FSD rules.

V2V might have advantages negotiating things like merges in a system where all vehicles have it. E.g. Boring tunnels.

agree that it won’t have any advantages on surface streets until almost all vehicles have it.

 

[Prunesquallor]

I have been thinking about December 21st and what if anything to do if extraordinary things happen to the share price.

I am a strictly long term buy and hold investor, indeed I have previously stated on here that my shares are not for sale. But just suppose that for technical reasons rather than fundamental ones, the price decouples from reality for a short time. What then? Typically when a pricing mismatch occurs, it creates an opportunity to exploit the situation. Of course often with a widely anticipated event like this, it ends up being a damp squib. But it might not, and if not, I want to have a plan, rather than be caught in a blind panic.

So I have created a selling plan. This is very much a top-slicing exercise rather than dipping into what I consider my core holding. I have set price points at $50 intervals starting at $600 and have calculated exactly how many shares to sell at each price and also which will be sold out of my tax free ISA and which ones from my taxable trading account.

The perfect outcome would be to buy back once the price settles down after the frenzy. If that doesn't happen however, then no bother, as my core holding will be worth significantly more and I will have a load of cash on my balance sheet. I have considered all the possible scenarios and am comfortable with each of them.

I would add that if something really stupid happens, such as an infinity squeeze, as happened with VW a few years ago, then I might have to ditch the plan and revert to blind panic

I have done exactly the same thing.

 

[wtlloyd]

I have been thinking about December 21st and what if anything to do if extraordinary things happen to the share price.


I would add that if something really stupid happens, such as an infinity squeeze, as happened with VW a few years ago, then I might have to ditch the plan and revert to blind panic

Wow, that was amazing to read about:

https://ftalphaville.ft.com/2018/10/31/1540962002000/The-day-Volkswagen-briefly-conquered-the-world/

and especially to note how it is still influencing stock movements today:

"Some have tried other ways to claw back losses. For instance a firm backed by Elliot Management, who were also caught in the short-squeeze, are financing litigation by a group of shareholders over the Volkswagen emissions scandal. In return for paying the upfront costs, they will collect up to 30 per cent of any of the winnings from the lawsuit. While not directly related to 2008, many have suggested it is in part a means for Elliot to settle old scores. Elliot declined to comment."

 

[Buckminster]

V2V might have advantages negotiating things like merges in a system where all vehicles have it. E.g. Boring tunnels.

agree that it won’t have any advantages on surface streets until almost all vehicles have it.

A place for this discussion to continue:
V2X, V2V (Car to vehicle, everything connectivity)

 

[Krugerrand]

View attachment 610744

This is exactly why Tesla succeeds and it’s exactly why I keep criticism of them mostly to myself: Not afraid to make mistakes, not afraid to not be perfect, not embarrassed by the try, and turn perceived negative into a positive.

You know who you are that need to chew on that long and hard. And yes, it has everything to do with investment analysis.

 

[Krugerrand]

When FSD is mastered, you dont really need V2V. When every car follow the speed limits and traffic rules - they already know what other cars will do. With FSD in all cars, they will in addition react the same way to identical situation and won't really need to talk to each other. It will be efficient and smooth anyway.

We humans dont yell at each other to make traffic flow? Well, some do.. but that normally doesnt help that much.

Only reason to connect cars even further, are if we have too limited space on the roads and need to pack cars bumper to bumper. That wont happen until humans are banned, and all cars run by the same FSD rules.

Or, think of the cost savings if there’s never anymore need for all those lights and traffic signs and road markings. If all cars just knew the rules of the road.

It’s not happening tomorrow or likely in ‘our’ lifetimes.