Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[Curt Renz]

Benzinga - 12 minutes ago: 10 Consumer Discretionary Stocks With Unusual Options Alerts In Today's Session

Excerpt:

For TSLA (NASDAQ:TSLA), we notice a call option sweep that happens to be bullish, expiring in 4 day(s) on December 4, 2020. A trader bought 200 contract(s) at a $700.00 strike. This particular call needed to be split into 42 different trades to become filled. The trader or institution spent $87.8K on this trade with a price of $431.0 per contract. There were 17073 open contracts at this strike prior to today, and today 22910 contract(s) were bought and sold.

 

[avoigt]

Using the Oct-2020 YTD numbers from EV sales : EV Sales: Global Top 20 October 2020 and adding in a few fairly crude kWh and $$ metrics I get these stats for Tesla's overall position vs the competition in the BEV+PHEV arena. The big unknown is what is hidden in the 56% of 'other' but I reckon it is mostly various micro-EV stuff. If you have better data let me know.

regards, pb/dspp
==================================

First by model:

Then by manufacturer:

Awesome spreadsheet.

I stole your KWh numbers for a twitter chart. Let me know if you want to be named

 

[MABMAB]

Volume is still relatively low, even with the large amount of selling and buying we just saw.

This baby hasn't begun to run yet.

I disagree, Volume looks great. This is either a local top or a great day!

 

[viridi]

Battle as TSLA approached $580 about ten minutes ago. Popped through for a moment, and then immediately brought down below. Got through $581.00, and then tried to get above $583.00. Lots of selling quickly came in. Happened again moments ago, and same significant selling came in.Easily brought below $580. Tremendous efforts going into bringing/keeping TSLA down today.

 

[Buckminster]

I love this analysis. We used to some of this in the EV Market Share thread. Battery supply is likely the most difficult scale up problem for EV makers. So with Tesla at 35% share of EV GWh, this is a huge lead for Tesla.

Battery supply is also key, I think, to being able to command share of revenue. Top OEMs by share of GWh are also top by revenue.

Additionally, learning curve cost advantages advantages accrue faster for competitors with a higher share of battery production. Even if some EV battery makers approach Tesla's scale to obtain these learning curve and scale advantages, the OEMs buying those batteries cede a huge share of the revenue to their battery suppliers. Some of these learning curve gains are structural integration, and here Tesla has an advantage over EV battery suppliers. Tesla looks to hold a massive share of gross profit.

It is hard to see how competitors will be able to chip away at Tesla's 35% share of the battery supply. Tesla is increasingly bringing their battery supply in-house while ramping up total supply at top speed. Tesla's scale and integration advantages are enormous. Easily half the vehicles in this segment only exist to satisfy regulatory compliance. But the compliance game does not get an ICE maker to the scale needed to be relevant in the EV market.

This is really interesting. Tesla average battery size will reduce over time whilst others will increase massively. Tesla can then sell more cars for a given kWh increase whilst others can sell fewer. Tesla share of EV market will trend up rather down. Could they get to 35%?...

 

[Todd Burch]

I disagree, Volume looks great. This is either a local top or a great day!

Volume is certainly higher than average, but I think the majority of that is because of the panic selling and buying again this morning.

 

[Jack6591]

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesm...sions--dont-believe-the-fossil-fuel-hype/amp/

In the last few days, a report has been hitting the headlines in the UK about the carbon footprint of producing EVs. The main story is that (mostly due to the batteries) the manufacture of an electric vehicle means that it will need to drive 50,000 miles before an equivalent fossil fuel car becomes less green. This is not a complete lie – the carbon footprint of EV manufacture is (generally) higher than for fossil fuel cars at the moment. But leading on this headline figure obscures a lot of detail, and when you dig deeper, the motivations for the report become more questionable.
...
[EVs] really are a silver bullet for emissions neutrality; don’t believe the hype from companies with heavy fossil fuel bias.

The longer you drive an internal combustion engine, the more it’s rings, valves, gaskets,and mechanical components wear. The more it pollutes.

The longer you drive an electric vehicle, more and more renewable energy is added to the grid. Electric vehicles become cleaner and cleaner.

In terms of battery manufacturing, it is important that it be compared to the fossil fuel equivalent. As an industrial electrician, I worked for years at the oil refineries in the South Bay of Los Angeles...

 

[Cape Coddess]

CNBC to have a report on Tesla joining the s&p in a couple minutes

 

[CyberDutchie]

Battle as TSLA approached $580 about ten minutes ago. Popped through for a moment, and then immediately brought down below. Got through $581.00, and then tried to get above $583.00. Lots of selling quickly came in. Happened again moments ago, and same significant selling came in.Easily brought below $580. Tremendous efforts going into bringing/keeping TSLA down today.

The departure from NASDAQ trending looks to have started around mid-day, after volume dried up a bit:

 

[petit_bateau]

Awesome spreadsheet.

I stole your KWh numbers for a twitter chart. Let me know if you want to be named

Preferably, and as pb/dspp.

 

[Right_Said_Fred]

Using the Oct-2020 YTD numbers from EV sales : EV Sales: Global Top 20 October 2020 and adding in a few fairly crude kWh and $$ metrics I get these stats for Tesla's overall position vs the competition in the BEV+PHEV arena. The big unknown is what is hidden in the 56% of 'other' but I reckon it is mostly various micro-EV stuff. If you have better data let me know.

regards, pb/dspp
==================================

First by model:

Then by manufacturer:

Thanks for that very informative chart.

One remark: in the table for Tesla as a whole you used a higher ASP, which makes sense as it includes the more expensive Model S and X. The average KWh however is kept constant at 65.0. With the 100 kWh batteries of Model S and X this should in fact be 70.8 kWh for the whole fleet, resulting in a market share of 38% (instead of 34,9%).

 

[UncaNed]

Okay, I subscribe to the democratic approach! And since I trust TMC's voting mechanism isn't fraudulent , this idea is turned down.

I gather that the software would not accommodate that, the owners of TMC aren't saying anything to anyone so far as I can tell, not the mods... you and I have no voice, (unless I am mistaken, and I might well be).

 

[dakh]

Okay, I subscribe to the democratic approach! And since I trust TMC's voting mechanism isn't fraudulent , this idea is turned down.

"Disagree" is different from "off-topic/offensive/advertising post, mods please remove and spank the perp". I think if we had such a button it would make mods life easier both because of crowdsourcing for filtering posts that need attention, and for gauging what the readers think are the posts that don't belong.

 

[agastya]

Reading a lot of FUD about why S&P500 funds should be the bag holders in case there is a steep SP drop after inclusion - went and looked at the composition of SPY as on date.

what do I know - 244 of the constituents having ~26% of the S&P weightage are in the red. Surely you don't see the discussion on why S&P is bagholding the likes of GE, Exxon and WF etc

 

[Sudre]

This dip makes for a good time for THEM to filling a void of options so they can make more money on premiums and fees.
I think they fully expects this to rise back up for the 600 battle this week. They already started back filling 600 with Puts last week so I think they expect that breached.

 

[petit_bateau]

Thanks for that very informative chart.

One remark: in the table for Tesla as a whole you used a higher ASP, which makes sense as it includes the more expensive Model S and X. The average KWh however is kept constant at 65.0. With the 100 kWh batteries of Model S and X this should in fact be 70.8 kWh for the whole fleet, resulting in a market share of 38% (instead of 34,9%).

RSF,
Because Tesla (or any of the manufacturers) do not break out their variant information I just took a SWAG at the kWh/vehicle and the $/vehicle. For the Tesla 3 and the Tesla Y I used the same avge of 65kWh/v but slightly different avges of $50k/v and $60k/v for avge price. I have not taken any account of the Tesla S or X, so this may be conservative in terms of Tesla's overall position in the market. Similarly I have not accounted for any vehicle that did not make it into the top 20 - which includes things like the VW ID3, and also the various VW Upi etc. I am not sure whether the EVsalesblog data rolls up SEAT and Skoda data into VW data. I figure that for the time being these factors balance out, but I will keep an eye on them. I have previously written to Evsalesblogs to encourage them to include an analysis such as this (which is trivial) but they have not taken up my suggestion, which is why I offer it. I am sure everyone here can see the implications of the data. I am still searching for data sources to be able to do a corresponding analysis in the stationary storage space but that is harder to come by - but will in time likely lead to a similar conclusion.
regards,
pb/dspp

 

[Davidzhao365]

Can someone help me understand the difference if NPORT-P and 13F?

I see both used in Tesla Facts’s Twitter and only see 13F in @FrankSG ’s blog.

Thanks!

Twitter is https://twitter.com/truth_tesla/status/1330965371126484992?s=21

blog is
Tesla's S&P 500 Inclusion Part 2: Predicting the transformation of the TSLA float

 

[Carl Raymond]

"Disagree" is different from "off-topic/offensive/advertising post, mods please remove and spank the perp". I think if we had such a button it would make mods life easier both because of crowdsourcing for filtering posts that need attention, and for gauging what the readers think are the posts that don't belong.

I don’t think you can crowd source filtering.

For example, drop a name like Greta Thunberg into a post and it will attract both extremes. Love from climate warriors and hate from denialists. The latter group would have the numbers to make the post vanish, if they had that power.

Yet she leads a global movement to urgently decarbonise. If she succeeds, Tesla and TSLA obviously has a dream run, thus the post is likely relevant and should not be filtered.

I would like to take this opportunity to thank the Mods. It’s an important lesson that “the umpire is always right (even when wrong)”. If my child was tech fouled on the basketball court I would be ashamed.

 

[Christine69420]

"Disagree" is different from "off-topic/offensive/advertising post, mods please remove and spank the perp". I think if we had such a button it would make mods life easier both because of crowdsourcing for filtering posts that need attention, and for gauging what the readers think are the posts that don't belong.

We already have such a button. Labeled "REPORT".

Down here: ↘

 

[Dutchie]

This is a great video, though off in some places (did not mention Model Y for instance) but otherwise spot on