Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

[juanmedina]

@tesla_truth account suspended

View attachment 618403

He is back at it:

I should be sleeping

 

[Tes La Ferrari]

Sure would be nice if some of the tradional media would pick up this story instead of “Gordoning” Us with FUD

Las Vegas approves Boring Company's Loop transport system with Tesla vehicles - Electrek

 

[Johan]

He is back at it:

I should be sleeping

@tesla_truth ≠ @truth_tesla

Get some sleep!

 

[Criscmt]

High degree of professionalism by all Portfolio Management teams across the Index and Benchmark funds?

Given so many TSLA enthusiasts across the internet (TMC, Twitter, Reddit), and quality researchers like @Rob Maurer and many others here on TMC and other platforms, that we didn't hear anyone stating they heard from a PM in their network talking about their current plans for S&P inclusion purchase sounds amazing.
Even the aspect of indexers purchasing through Closing Cross came to light broadly here only recently.

 

[Buckminster]

LG to supply NCMA battery for Tesla next year
Care of Reflex Funds

 

[Artful Dodger]

Norway to Extend Tax Reduction Incentives on Electric Vehicles for 2 More Years | Tesmanian

 

[Johan]

Norway to Extend Tax Reduction Incentives on Electric Vehicles for 2 More Years | Tesmanian

This has long been in the goverment's plan for the budget but it had to be approved by ESA (The EFTA Surveillance Authority (ESA) monitors compliance with European Economic Area (EEA) rules in Iceland, Liechtenstein and Norway, enabling them to participate in the European Internal Market.) since it is a form of exception from the rules to exempt EVs from normal sales taxe. It was approved because the incentive is in line with Norwegian and European goals to limit climate change. This means zero tax on EVs for the duration of 2021.

 

[MABMAB]

Profit taking so far by a subset of front-runners. Has it been significant?

Here are some factors that make me wonder about the extent to which at least significant number of front-runners already took profits.

• Likely many won't aim to sell at peak, but rather take the profits when they reach a significant level.
• The price action in the last 1-2 weeks
• We perhaps saw a mini blow-off top last week.
• Tweet [1] by @truth_tesla about volumes. I am not very confident on the volume based theory. I would love to hear on this form someone more knowledgeable than me @FrankSG, @bxr140 @Right_Said_Fred @generalenthu @MABMAB @rexmakesbeats?

That said, if we assume a large subset of front-runners took profits, given that funds pretty much didn't buy any, who bought these shares from this subset of front-runners? Front-runners that are more risk tolerant, and/or with high conviction that price will go much higher, and/or BM funds?

[1] Over 668m shares traded since breaking $600 - most of the November index speculator hedge funds likely out already with ~50% profits. Historically TSLA's current breakout is the lowest volume one on a weekly volume basis: half the volume of the July and August rallies.

I have to chuckle. Despite thinking very highly of myself and investing in the market, NOBODY online has ever asked for my opinion. In real life, nobody has ever followed me in TSLA. Only a few people that have known me over the years have slightly recognized the changes in our life because of this investment. This despite publicly coming up with a 2k-3k price target up to 8 years ago. Few if any have agreed with me.

Having said that, this is all totally unfamiliar territory. I am a back seat passenger, seat belt is on, doors are locked and I'm not interested in getting out of the car. I can't see any of the road in front of us but I do know where we are going. I have no clue what is happening with trades this week, no theory on volume, no experience with such a large addition. I think the near term squeeze bull players are on drugs and I have considered some moves to make if we had an irrational 700+ move. I'd considered pulling 1/3rd of assets, buying a life time annuity to provide a lifetime floor of income. We investigated this, mulled it over for a while and decided against it. If TSLA grows irrationally high we will be holders! If it moves down 10-20% as some predict, we will be holders.

I plan to die with more shares of TSLA than I hold now.
I do not think we have had anything of the sort of a blow off move.
I expected different things to happen post election, they have not. I was wrong. Being wrong and making mistakes are the best things that have taught me, when I let them teach.
I do not care about front runners, HF sellers, index buying.
I think Gary Black provides a sane insiders view of things but do not trade off of his or others opinions.

Thanks for asking.

 

[MABMAB]

 

[Tslynk67]

Well futures are up but that’s meaningless information till they start to go down

Can I just point-out that since the mods shut-down your spanking machine, the SP has stagnated...

 

[MC3OZ]

Yes, Rob Maurer did a great job explaining the closing cross procedure in today's episode of Tesla Daily (10:59) - about 4 mins long.

TL;dw To participate in the closing cross, simple place a "Market on Close" order before 3:55:00 pm, or place a "Limit on Close" order before 3:58:00 pm.

Cheers!

If people want to dig it "Dark Pools" ,NASDAQ should have rules around off-market trade reporting.

For some exchanges off-market trades can be reported to 4 fractions of a cent even though, on-market trades can only execute at single fractions of a cent. What that means is these can be highly negotiated prices, or perhaps trades done in another currency.

Hypothetically, if a fund is negotiating a trade with a front running agent, they would select the closing price.

Both parties would hope that the closing price is greater than the front running agent's cost basis, things might get messy if it isn't.

A trade at the closing price would raise zero suspicion IMO, and perhaps a "Dark Pool" is merely 2 parties talking on a phone.

Apologies if I should have raised this earlier, I just thought of it and I'm not familiar with NASDAQ.

We would need to dig deep into the rules to see if this kind of activity is allowed, and if it is illegal, how the breach is detected.
IMO unless the exchange/regulator has very specific rules around what a "Dark Pool" can do, it might not be illegal.

 

[Artful Dodger]

Fun Fact: After Tesla's IPO, it was already larger than the smallest stock on the S&P 500:

 

[Tslynk67]

Yes, Rob Maurer did a great job explaining the closing cross procedure in today's episode of Tesla Daily (10:59) - about 4 mins long.

TL;dw To participate in the closing cross, simple place a "Market on Close" order before 3:55:00 pm, or place a "Limit on Close" order before 3:58:00 pm.

Cheers!

Thanks. I don't have those order types though, not that I want to participate, I'm not really interested in selling at ~$620

 

[Rande]

SPY does not hold TSLA as of 16 Dec.

Source:
SPY: SPDR® S&P 500® ETF Trust

 

[Rande]

IVV does not hold TSLA as of 16 Dec.

Source:
iShares Core S&P 500 ETF | IVV

 

[Rhoon-NL]

Long time lurker here.


After reading a lot here and elsewhere it becomes clear to me that this scenario becomes more and more likely:

1. The inclusion spike is already behind us ($150+ rise since the announcement)

2. Front runners have had enough time during the spike to accumulate shares (eventually partly by exercising call options) and will be happy to sell them at a profit to the index funds.

3. Bench mark funds don’t have to buy Tsla to beat the S&P 500. But if they want to, they can wait for a post inclusion dip.

4. As a result there won't be a further spike

5. Short term call option players (like me) are caught like a deer in the headlights.


I hope I’m wrong but I’m afraid not.

To extent this scenario:

6. Monday morning: The inclusion is completed via deals during the Closing Cross.

7. A huge amount of calls expire worthless --> Reversal of delta hedging --> Share price dips (potentially to pre-announcement level / Lower BB / 50 DMA level).

8. Bench mark funds patiently start scooping up shares at a discount (note they are not obliged to buy and not before a specific deadline).

9. January: Tesla releases a ‘bombardment’ of good news --> FOMO kicks in --> New spike.


Why I think this scenario has become more likely:

a) The S&P 500 committee stated they don’t expect a share liquidity problem. I don’t think they would take the risk to turn the inclusion into a mess / into disruptive price actions.

b) The Closing Cross is a perfect way to buy a huge amount of shares at once at the right price (the closing price) to minimize tracking error with the S&P 500 index. This isn’t possible in the open market.

c) The index funds haven’t started buying yet. They must be confident they will get their shares in time.

d) Timing of the $5bn stock selling by Tesla in hindsight in the vicinity of the ATH. They already knew how the inclusion will be done and anticipated.

e) Why haven’t the bench mark funds started buying yet? They are free to buy. I think they are confident they can buy at lower prices after the inclusion. Or perhaps they will also buy during the closing cross on Friday, but I doubt there is enough liquidity for that.


PS:
- The big players had their information advantage regarding Closing Crosses. I think we have our information advantage regarding upcoming positive news from Tesla.

- Still holding my Jan / Feb calls.


EDIT: replaced 'à' by '-->'

 

[UkNorthampton]

Great post!
re Semi Trailers with structural batteries: I agree. This is the logical way to solve the puzzle of range as Elon joked at Battery Day: structural batteries will have negative mass.
Indeed, it seems that a trailer-with-builtin-battery is a new vehicle category - a new chess piece. When used together with a Tesla Semi, the value is greater than the sum due to vertical integration. But even used alone, together with a competitor ICE Semi, it adds value:
The competitor and its customer get bona fide green bragging rights because it can also have (a few) motors built in, thereby decreasing ICE pollution overall, by co-driving. Used together with a competitor EV-Semi it adds more value still: It allows the competitor to have less battery than otherwise. And perhaps also has a public API for the competitor can access.

It might also, in a very optimistic scenario, be possible to equip the Tesla Trailer with a limited form of self-driving. Think of being able to, at low speed, re-arrange a bunch of trailers and pair them with new Semis. Think logistic yard (don't know the correct term) where a lot of cargo is collected temporarily before being redistributed. Wouldn't it be great if some of those moving and rearrangement could be done by issuing orders to a large group of trailers?
(Assuming prose not code for readability) "For all trailers: This is the new desired configuration for this yard - rearrange yourself within 45 minutes. And also, any trailer below X minutes of travel time with respect to current load weight should charge themselves. And also: Do a complete self-diagnostic, aggregate the errors into a run-state and flag any state above level "minor errors", and put yourselves out of commission if so."
This is where the tightly controlled vertical Tesla stack could shine in a new way: Why only provide Semis and trailers - why not a logistic solutions for fleet owners supporting high level programming API for interconnection and/or custom GUI for sophisticated fleet operations?

re solid state batteries
The world need a lot of batteries for EVs and energy storage. If solid state can be produced cheaply in great quantities - great.

, timestamp: 16m18s and onward discuss much faster charging with batteries Tesla may be developing currently with the guesstimated timeframe of 3 years. So even if fast-charging is one of solid state batteries main selling points, that advantage may not last.

I agree that slow speed autonomous movements from trailers would be useful around yards. I also think the regen from a trailer would be useful, both for the energy recovery, but also brake distribution preventing jack-knifing & for descents (EV much better than diesels at altitude as well).

It also allows a semi (HGV tractor) to be in near constant use (changing drivers), charging from the trailer slowly.

Trailers could be charged more slowly than tractor units as they are often stationary (especially if tractor drops & then trailer manoeuvres), avoiding the high prices of high speed connections, even acting as Vehicle to Grid/Load (V2G/V2L) & virtual grid/time of use for extra income. Solar/wind/storage parks for containers/trailers.

Last piece of the puzzle would be much more power (without ICE pollution) for refrigeration in case of delays (weather, ports, congestion).

Could be a game-changer

 

[Johan]

To extent this scenario:

6. Monday morning: The inclusion is completed via deals during the Closing Cross.

7. A huge amount of calls expire worthless --> Reversal of delta hedging --> Share price dips (potentially to pre-announcement level / Lower BB / 50 DMA level).

8. Bench mark funds patiently start scooping up shares at a discount (note they are not obliged to buy and not before a specific deadline).

9. January: Tesla releases a ‘bombardment’ of good news --> FOMO kicks in --> New spike.


Why I think this scenario has become more likely:

a) The S&P 500 committee stated they don’t expect a share liquidity problem. I don’t think they would take the risk to turn the inclusion into a mess / into disruptive price actions.

b) The Closing Cross is a perfect way to buy a huge amount of shares at once at the right price (the closing price) to minimize tracking error with the S&P 500 index. This isn’t possible in the open market.

c) The index funds haven’t started buying yet. They must be confident they will get their shares in time.

d) Timing of the $5bn stock selling by Tesla in hindsight in the vicinity of the ATH. They already knew how the inclusion will be done and anticipated.

e) Why haven’t the bench mark funds started buying yet? They are free to buy. I think they are confident they can buy at lower prices after the inclusion. Or perhaps they will also buy during the closing cross on Friday, but I doubt there is enough liquidity for that.


PS:
- The big players had their information advantage regarding Closing Crosses. I think we have our information advantage regarding upcoming positive news from Tesla.

- Still holding my Jan / Feb calls.


EDIT: replaced 'à' by '-->'

This is a compelling case. But the big question is who are the sellers? The Closing Cross is a very good way of buying a huge amount of share at once at a fixed price, yes, and that makes the index fond's job much easier (tracking the index). But a transaction performed during the Closing Cross is still a transaction that must have a seller for each buyer. So who are the sellers?

 

[ProfTournesol]

This is a compelling case. But the big question is who are the sellers? The Closing Cross is a very good way of buying a huge amount of share at once at a fixed price, yes, and that makes the index fond's job much easier (tracking the index). But a transaction performed during the Closing Cross is still a transaction that must have a seller for each buyer. So who are the sellers?

check the past two days, there are a lot of sellers.

 

[Prunesquallor]

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

Volkswagen Loses EU Top Court Ruling in Diesel Scandal

"Installing a so-called defeat device can’t be justified by the fact that “it contributes to preventing the ageing or clogging up of the engine,” the EU Court of Justice ruled Thursday."

"Multiple automakers may now face record recalls and lawsuits, Claus Goldenstein, a German consumer lawyer, said in a statement."

"The ruling comes as VW continues to be targeted in a wave of investor lawsuits on top of claims by drivers whose cars may have lost value after the manipulation was exposed by U.S. regulators in September 2015."