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Tesla, TSLA & the Investment World: the Perpetual Investors' Roundtable

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It would be sweet justice to see Gordon Johnson carried away in the back of a Model Y.

That's funny! The justice would be even sweeter if the officer recognized the biggest emissions credits FUDster of them all and turned Fart Mode on high-volume and yelled loudly towards the back seat, "I thought you might enjoy some nice sounding emissions before the credits disappear completely". :p
 
not sure if you saw the note Diess put out a while ago. It was thoughtful and committed... seemed like he threw down the gauntlet and said ‘we have to be like Tesla or we are done, and I’m willing to lose my position if you disagree’.
it’s a net positive for the planet and may become Tesla’s only real competitor.

Yes I am sure he means it but to be like Tesla is probably the wrong goal and may have lost you the race already.

Legacy auto makers are like printer companies. They sell you a printer for no margin just to make it back on the ink(parts).

Tesla is a tablet company. They have gone fully digital and doesn't even need paper anymore. So how are you going to steer this ship will be one hell of a business plan.
 
OT:

I ordered two bottles and am willing to sell one (unopened), though I do intend to mark it up. I'd prefer to interact with someone local, in Arizona. If anyone is interested, send me a direct message.

We’re in the late shipping zone here in AZ, all the deals have been scooped up.
I’ve got 4 on the way and saving one for after the trip to Austin to get the Cybertruck. I originally said I’d crack one open when I got the comma in my account but that already happened so now just waiting to celebrate with them.

It’s easy/easier to to play the inclusion when all you know is how to play dead and HODL..
 
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Yes, it’s enough to make your head swim.
Sell now, get a huge profit, and maybe the price plummets after inclusion… now you owe a pile of money in taxes with a greatly reduced portfolio value.

After the split, $500 was a fair price, or $420. Company fundamentals have only gotten better since then. There could be a down period. But then, earnings call, good deliveries, factories being built and opening… S&P500 shenanigans will all be in the past in six months, and you’ll be glad to have chairs you could never buy back at the price you might have sold for.
You read my mind.
 
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Respect to Artful Dodger, but how can you assume the market cap corresponds to net inflow?
I'd argue that the change in market cap IS the definition of net in(out)flow. NOT selling a highly liquid equity is an investment decision too. That money is piled up for a purpose. And the purpose is growing.

Care to guess (without looking) what the total amount of USD traded in TSLA was from Nov 16th @ 5:15 PM to Dec 8th at 4:00 PM?

No really, post ur guess.
Then for fun, guess the change in Mkt Cap vs the dollar amnt traded (in %).
I'll wait...

Cheers!
 
Yes, it’s enough to make your head swim.
Sell now, get a huge profit, and maybe the price plummets after inclusion… now you owe a pile of money in taxes with a greatly reduced portfolio value.

After the split, $500 was a fair price, or $420. Company fundamentals have only gotten better since then. There could be a down period. But then, earnings call, good deliveries, factories being built and opening… S&P500 shenanigans will all be in the past in six months, and you’ll be glad to have chairs you could never buy back at the price you might have sold for.
I realize there has been a narrative now firmly esconced that TSLA stock price has to drop after inclusion. I don't follow that, with inclusion, there will be fewer stocks to short, hyper selling on news fragments (sometimes sentence fragments) would be unlikely with large funds buying into the s&p 500. I would think there would be relative stability, which would mirror the inclusion criteria-- four quarters of profit.

The general view towards EVs is now shifting to acceptable while CNBC reminds us of GS' upgrade on Exxon mobil. Even NPR which has been notoriously anti Tesla-- SCPR.org, but had a segment a few days ago that pickup truck owners are ok with EVs and are looking for EV pickups because they need the instant torque among other reasons.
 
I'd argue that the change in market cap IS the definition of net in(out)flow. NOT selling a highly liquid equity is an investment decision too. That money is piled up for a purpose. And the purpose is growing.

Care to guess (without looking) what the total amount of USD traded in TSLA was from Nov 16th @ 5:15 PM to Dec 8th at 4:00 PM?

No really, post ur guess.
Then for fun, guess the change in Mkt Cap vs the dollar amnt traded (in %).
I'll wait...

Cheers!
I'll guess that the amount traded since the inclusion announcement is $500B and the increased market cap is $200B.
 
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2F611984-9EE3-41CE-8713-595896F86F98.jpeg
Found out why $TSLA’s been dropping lately....top ranked analyst has made some bearish comments :cool::cool::cool:
 
Weird week so far.

Like a weatherman saying: there is going to be a blizzard!

And you look outside and... nothing.

But still, you wonder...

what is coming?

and when?

That's why you only listen to weatherman you trust. A good weatherman let's you know the range of weather that's possible when there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. Here on the West Coast the weather is a little harder to predict, on average. A bad weatherman projects more detail in the forecast than they can predict with a high degree of certainty.
 
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Ihor has some thoughts on the inclusion process:

View attachment 618348

View attachment 618349


From twitter: https://twitter.com/ihors3


it's just jaw dropping how many "professional" stock folks keep getting basic stuff like this wrong.

He writes "Most of these passive investors can't buy shares until $TSLA is officially in the index"

Absolutely false.

For one, they're not officially in the index until December 21st prior to open- which is Monday. Most buying is expected Friday, which of course is before the 21st.

For another, taking 5 minutes to read the prospectus of the largest S&P 500 Index fund in the world tells you they can buy shares before TSLA is officially in the index. 3 days before in SPYs case in fact- though to minimize tracking error they're going to buy it as close to inclusion (but PRIOR TO IT) as possible.

Which is close on Friday.






That's not the house. That's the landlord. The house participate in gambling in which the winning odds are in their favor. The landlord collects money no matter what you do.


Guess you've never played at a poker table at a casino?

The house collects money every hand no matter what the players do.
 
I realize there has been a narrative now firmly esconced that TSLA stock price has to drop after inclusion. I don't follow that, with inclusion, there will be fewer stocks to short, hyper selling on news fragments (sometimes sentence fragments) would be unlikely with large funds buying into the s&p 500. I would think there would be relative stability, which would mirror the inclusion criteria-- four quarters of profit.

The general view towards EVs is now shifting to acceptable while CNBC reminds us of GS' upgrade on Exxon mobil. Even NPR which has been notoriously anti Tesla-- SCPR.org, but had a segment a few days ago that pickup truck owners are ok with EVs and are looking for EV pickups because they need the instant torque among other reasons.

Tesla at 800 or 900 THIS week or the next, definite drop. Irresponsible not to buy puts or short calls.

If it stays in this range, it would be time to enter or accumulate.

Can't short 800 when we are hanging on to 600 for dear life.
 
I'll guess that the amount traded since the inclusion announcement is $500B and the increased market cap is $200B.

Good guess! A little north of $400B traded from 5:15 pm, Nov 16th - to end of day on Dec 8th (a little more than the entire Mkt Cap of TSLA at the Close on Nov 16: ($387B)

TSLA.chart.2020-11-16.png

That's about 5x what Index Funds need to buy in TSLA stock. Or put another way, only about 1 in 5 buyers from the past month need to become sellers for the S&P Index funds to get all the shares they need.

I think the liquidity is there, the remaining question is what SP convinces the first 20% of them to sell? See what I mean? Is it similar to the 'early adopter's curve'?

1.png


Viewed another way, about $400B was spent on TSLA during the period when the Mkt Cap increased by about $234B. So, can we say approx. 58% of TSLA purchases have been held?

Again IMO, this is a sufficient liquidity reservoir to support the Addition w/o an exponential spike in the SP (as some have called an 'infinity squeeze). I do think the SP will rise, but in a controlled manner as it entices in more and more sellers. That's kinda the purpose of 'price discovery' in the Market.

Cheers!
 
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it's just jaw dropping how many "professional" stock folks keep getting basic stuff like this wrong.

He writes "Most of these passive investors can't buy shares until $TSLA is officially in the index"

Absolutely false.

For one, they're not officially in the index until December 21st prior to open- which is Monday. Most buying is expected Friday, which of course is before the 21st.

For another, taking 5 minutes to read the prospectus of the largest S&P 500 Index fund in the world tells you they can buy shares before TSLA is officially in the index. 3 days before in SPYs case in fact- though to minimize tracking error they're going to buy it as close to inclusion (but PRIOR TO IT) as possible.

Which is close on Friday.









Guess you've never played at a poker table at a casino?

The house collects money every hand no matter what the players do.
You are not playing against the house, you are playing against other players. The house is the landlord in this case, essentially players are paying rent to sit at the table and the house in this case has zero skin in the game.
 
Good guess! A little north of $400B traded from 5:15 pm, Nov 16th - to end of day on Dec 8th (a little more than the entire Mkt Cap of TSLA at the Close on Nov 16: ($387B)

View attachment 618387

That's about 5x what Index Funds need to buy in TSLA stock. Or put another way, only about 1 in 5 buyers from the past month need to become sellers for the S&P Index funds to get all the shares they need.

I think the liquidity is there, the remaining question is what SP convinces the first 20% of them to sell? See what I mean? Is it similar to the 'early adopter's curve'?

1.png


Cheers!

How many distinct chairs were traded in that $400 billion?

A) 120 million
B) 73.5 million
C) 462,481
D) 58,120
E) 10

Trick question of course. When they’re playing musical chairs with magical shares at nearly the speed of light, can anyone really know for sure?
 
I disagree. You are the one who reported the one day performance metrics of TSLA vs. your recently acquired stocks. If you thought one day performance metrics were "utterly meaningless" I wouldn't have expected you to report the numbers as if they meant something.
I think you misunderstood my post. I've been accumulating non-Tesla shares for a long time, from before I started accumulating Tesla in 2013. What happens is one day is not "utterly meaningless." It is simply what happens on a single day. The curious thing was that that particular day was illustrative of how my portfolio is not perfectly correlated with Tesla. There are days when most of my stock move in the same direction as Tesla and days when they do not. On a longer timescale this is very helpful. At times when Tesla has done poorly, these other stocks provide liquidity to accumulate Tesla on the cheap. It is especially helpful if these stock are not highly correlated with Tesla because they can hold more value when Tesla is down.

Let's make this a little more concrete. Suppose you own a portfolio of exactly 1000 Tesla shares at $600/sh and nothing. Now suppose the share price pulls back to $400/sh. What do you do? Many of us would hold on tight and wait for the price to return to $600. Great. This happens because Tesla is an awesome stock and will keep growing well pass this. You've still go 1000 shares of Tesla.

Ok, now suppose you've got 1000 shares of Tesla (starting at $600/sh) plus $200k of other liquid assets. Your portfolio is $800k and 75% of it is Tesla. You decide you like this ratio and try to stay close to it. Now again Tesla pulls back to $400. The value of your portfolio is $600k. Now you have the opportunity to liquidate $50k of your non-Tesla assets and accumulate 125 more shares of Tesla. When the price of Tesla recovers you've got 1125 shares worth $675k plus $150k of the other stuff along with appreciation (which we'll ignore. So conservatively when Tesla is back at $600, your portfolio is at $825k. You could hang on to the 1125 shares, but you would in weaker position to accumulate the next time Tesla has a pullback. Or you could rebalance to 75% which would level you with 1031.25 Tesla shares (more if your other assets are growing).

So rebalancing is a strategy for growing your Tesla position over time both in shares and dollar value. If you are confident that Tesla will keep growing in the long run, then it makes sense to rebalance whenever the share price retreats. You're confident in recovery and wish to have an even larger number of shares in the future.

The thing that I used to get hung up on is that I wouldn't rebalance when Tesla shares recovered value. Basically my only means of refreshing non-Tesla assets was to earn money at my job. When my income was high relative to my portfolio, this worked fine. I'd just save up more cash, and accumulate a few share here and there. What has changed this year is that the value of my portfolio has exploded, thanks to Tesla, SolarEdge and other stocks. The size of my portfolio now dwarfs my annual salary. My income is insufficient to rebalance my portfolio. So I have come to terms with needing to harvest gains on my high flying stocks so as to be able to seize on buying opportunities as the happen. It turns out that being able to accumulate a few more Tesla shares under $400 over the past two months was a really good thing. At this point I must harvest gains to fund such opportunistic buying.

As I pointed out, I am now in a good position to enjoy whatever happens next for Tesla. If the price goes down, I can seize on the opportunity under the belief in the long-term promise of the stock. Or if it is goes up, I can make good use of that opportunity too and have other stock positions I'd like to build up. I don't have to predict what any share price will do next. Rather I'm prepared to respond to whatever opportunities come next.